Arab Spring II in Egypt. The potential Civil War.

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A.Man

Major
The chaos has done more damages than the wars with Israel. Arab brothers, you have just done what Israelis were unable to do in the battle fields.
 

delft

Brigadier
Indeed the Muslim Brothers are the largest democratic group. The military and the salafists are not democrats but if, as seems likely the next elections will be a year from now or even later and, as seems possible, MB are excluded from them, then in the end the salafists will win.
 

MwRYum

Major
If only the Muslim Brotherhood administration wasn't that steadfast in pushing for a islamist constitution in a rather secular-leaning nation such as Egypt, this whole opposition won't have gather steam so easily.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
I fear that the recent events in Egypt would only radicalized the MB. The democratic process in Egypt has failed miserably when the military was allowed to topple a democratically elected government.

Exactly, why go through another round of election process only to be stump by the opposition party through protest once they see there are no compromise by the ruling elected party? And then the country will go into another economic meltdown.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
If only the Muslim Brotherhood administration wasn't that steadfast in pushing for a islamist constitution in a rather secular-leaning nation such as Egypt, this whole opposition won't have gather steam so easily.
Exactly, and here's how the Egyptian people who overthrew Morsi view it and explain what they did...and send the message to Obama.


[video=youtube;6tH-yV7eTBA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tH-yV7eTBA[/video]
 

leibowitz

Junior Member
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CAIRO — Egyptian soldiers fired on hundreds of supporters of ousted President Mohamed Morsi before dawn Monday as they were praying outside the facility where he was believed to be detained, dozens of witnesses said. Egypt’s military said armed assailants fired on the soldiers first.

At least 51 civilians were killed, all or most of them shot, and more than 300 wounded, doctors and health officials said. Security officials said one police officer died as well.

The shooting was the single deadliest episode of violence since the 2011 revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s longtime autocratic leader. It immediately escalated the nearly week-old confrontation between the generals who forced out Mr. Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected president, and Mr. Morsi’s Islamist supporters in the streets.

The military said its soldiers had fired in response to an attack by gunmen from a “terrorist group” who had attempted to storm the facility, according to Ahram Online, the Web site of Egypt’s leading newspaper.

Dozens of Islamists who had gathered to hold a vigil for Mr. Morsi denied there was any provocation for the attack. Two bystanders who had supported Mr. Morsi’s ouster said that the demonstrators were unarmed and ran in terror as the attack began.

Bullet holes in cars, lampposts and corrugated metal barriers indicated that gunfire was coming from the top of a nearby building where the sandbag barriers around makeshift gun emplacements were visible. Bullet casings on the ground and collected by Islamist demonstrators bore the stamp of the Egyptian Army.

But Egyptian state television showed film of a pro-Morsi protester firing what appeared to be a homemade handgun at advancing soldiers from behind a corner about 250 yards away. The footage was in daylight, hours after the initial attack began.

A witness who lived nearby said he saw two men with similar weapons among the protesters.

Another clip broadcast on state television, also in daylight and so hours after the attack had begun, showed a masked man among the pro-Morsi demonstrators.

The protesters, witnesses and video footage all appeared to portray the pro-Morsi demonstrators as attempting to fight back against the soldiers by throwing rocks.

Early in the morning, Egyptian state media sent out a news alert saying that an army lieutenant had been killed and 200 “armed individuals” were captured, then hours later reported that there were also dozens of civilian casualties.

There were pools of blood on the pavement. Some of the blood and bullet holes were hundreds of yards from the walls of the facility’s guard house, suggesting that the soldiers continued firing as the demonstrators fled.

Ibrahim el-Sheikh, a neighbor, said the police officer, Mohamed el-Mesairy, was killed by military fire. The officer was hiding in a car in the parking lot of a building in a side street that the Morsi supporters were using for shelter. Video footage taken from a window above showed gunfire from the advancing soldiers hitting the car.

Mr. Sheikh, who signed a petition and joined protests for Mr. Morsi’s ouster, said he and others carried the officer’s body out of his car. “He did not have a head any more,” he said.

The Nasr City hospital, a few minutes’ drive from the scene of the shooting, began receiving hundreds of victims around 4 a.m. and at least 40 were dead, according to Bassem al-Sayed, a surgeon. The doctor said all the victims he saw were men with gunshot wounds.

The emergency wards and the intensive care unit were full of patients and distraught relatives. Near the emergency room, two dozen men lined up to donate blood.

Dr. Sayed said he had seen similar scenes in the hospital only once: around January 25, 2011, when Egyptians began their revolt against President Hosni Mubarak.

“This is worse,” he said.

The survivors, who were shot in the head, chest or arms, or who had been hit in the face by birdshot pellets, all told roughly the same story. They were attacked without warning with tear gas and gunfire near the end of morning prayers. Some said that soldiers and police officers attacked from opposite sides. Others said that because of the dark, they were not sure which security branch their attackers belonged to.

“We were praying,” said Mahmoud Gomaa Ahmed, 33, who was wounded in the chest. “Before the prayer, nothing had happened at all,” he said, responding to accusations by military officials that a group of “terrorists” had attacked the Republican Guard officers’ club. “There was no one,” Mr. Ahmed said.

Mahmoud Mabrouk, 42, who was shot in his right arm, said the first rounds were intended to kill. “It wasn’t for the sake of dispersing us,” he said.

It was the second explosion of deadly violence outside the Republican Guard officers’ club since the military intervened on Wednesday to depose Mr. Morsi following mass protests against his rule. Mr. Morsi’s supporters believe the former president is being held inside the club, and have held rallies and a sit-in at its gates, demanding his release.

The killings came a day after the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies vowed to broaden their protests against the president’s ouster and American diplomats sought to persuade the Islamist group to accept his overthrow, its officials said. But the killings on Monday seemed certain to inject perilous new factors into the country’s fragile political calculus.

Continuing a push for accommodation that began before the removal of Mr. Morsi last week, the American diplomats contacted Brotherhood leaders to try to persuade them to re-enter the political process, an Islamist briefed on one of the conversations said on Sunday, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

“They are asking us to legitimize the coup,” the Islamist said, arguing that accepting the removal of an elected president would be the death of Egyptian democracy. The United States Embassy in Cairo declined to comment.

“They opened fire on us while we were praying,” Moataz Abu al-Shakra, a 25-year-old electrical engineer, said of the shootings on Monday. He huddled behind a sheet of corrugated metal riddled with bullet holes that Mr. Morsi’s supporters had sought to use as a barricade — anticipating only shotgun pellets, not more powerful ammunition. “There were snipers on the roof tops,” he said.

“It is like they were fighting a war between two countries, not like our army or police,” he said. “They are criminals.”

Mohamed Farahat, 38, a teacher, said the soldiers had fired tear gas along with the bullets and rushed out to arrest dozens of fleeing demonstrators as well.

Gomaa Gaber, a 53-year-old mechanic with a large blood stain on his shirt, said he threw himself onto a younger relative, Ali Mohamed Said, 24, to try to protect him. But Mr. Said had already been shot in the chest. “He died in my arms,” he said.

Although by morning some people carried sticks or makeshift clubs, all said that the demonstrators were unarmed. Mr. Sheikh and another neighbor who opposed Mr. Morsi and supported his ouster said the same.

“Our only weapons were bottles of water and prayer rugs,” said Gamal Ali, 37, a teacher.

Even as both sides continued their street demonstrations on Sunday, Egypt’s new leaders continued their effort to form an interim government. Squabbles about a choice for prime minister spilled out into the open on Saturday, exposing splits among the country’s newly ascendant political forces.

State news media quoted a spokesman for Adli Mansour, the interim president, on Sunday as saying there was a “tendency” to name Mohamed ElBaradei, a Nobel Prize-winning diplomat, as vice president, and a former chair of Egypt’s investment authority, Ziad Bahaa el-Din, as interim prime minister.

On Saturday, state news media said Mr. ElBaradei had been chosen as prime minister, but the presidency later backed away from the report after ultraconservatives known as Salafis, who fault Mr. ElBaradei for being too secular, apparently rejected the appointment. It was not clear on Sunday that the Salafi party, Al Nour, was any more inclined to accept Mr. ElBaradei as vice president.

Mr. Bahaa el-Din, a lawyer who served in the investment authority and on the board of the Central Bank under former President Hosni Mubarak, was abroad and was considering the request, according to a spokesman for his political party, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party.

The lack of agreement means that Egypt has been without a fully functioning government since Wednesday, when the defense minister, Gen. Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi, announced that Mr. Morsi had been deposed.

This is a bigtime fuckup. Seriously, mowing down dozens kneeling for dawn prayer with live ammo? What's next, burning down a mosque during Ramadan? Does whomever commander ordered this seriously *want* a full-blown civil war?
 

solarz

Brigadier
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This is a bigtime fuckup. Seriously, mowing down dozens kneeling for dawn prayer with live ammo? What's next, burning down a mosque during Ramadan? Does whomever commander ordered this seriously *want* a full-blown civil war?

We're pretty much seeing a repeat of what happened in Syria 2 years ago. Where are the cries of "bloody crackdown" now?
 

delft

Brigadier
Apparently the military dictatorship has abandoned hope of a civilian fig leaf government. How long can Obama delay cutting off support for the military? Will he cut off support for the military?
 

Franklin

Captain
You have to understand that most of the people protesting against Morsi do so out of economic reasons rather than on political or religious grounds. The economic situation in Egypt was already bad in the latter days of Mubarak. And that's why he got thrown out. Is because prices were rising and 40% of the Egyptians live on less than 1 dollar a day. Those people litterally can't afford to feed their families anymore and that's why they went out on to the street to protest against Mubarak's rule. And in the 2,5 years after the fall of Mubarak the economic situation in Egypt has gotten from bad to worse. Inflation has gone up higher and unemployment is now even higher then back during Mubarak's days. Egypts economic problems has been compounded by international factors like the war in neighboring Libya where tens of thousands if not hundred's of thousands of Egyptians have worked and was sending home remittances to their families. Now with the war in Libya all that has come to a end. And even a bigger problem is that Ethiopia is now building a dam on the Blue Nile river that threatens to divert water away down stream to Egypt. The Nile is the single biggest fresh water source for the Egyptians. This is a massive crisis and a real threat to Egypt.

Then there is the old "deep state" of the Mubarak era. That's the bureaucracy, army and other security forces that was less then co-operative toward the new MB government. The police force in Egypt didn't want to recognise the authority of the new government and simply refused to deploy in many cases. As a result you have football fans running amock, sexual harassment of women on the streets have skyrocketed, minorities like Shia's and Christians where attacked and killed and rioting and stone throwing youths had virtually free reign over the streets of Egyptians cities. The private media in the country was completely owned by old Mubarak cronies and attacked the new MB government from the beginning and at every turn. They were calling on the people to come out to protest against Morsi's government for weeks.

The things that people site to justify the coup like the illiberal constitution or the supporting of radical groups in Libya and Syria or the abdecation of the peace trety with israel doesn't hold sway.

First that constitution was approved in a referendum by a massive majority. The support that Morsi's Egypt gave to radical groups in Libya and Syria is far less than what the GCC and NATO countries gave them. In the case with Libya they even threw bombs for the al-Qaeda fighters on the ground who later killed the US ambassador in Benghazi. As for the peace with Israel. Egypt under Morsi enforced the blockade on Gaza perhabs even more strengint than Mubarak as they have found and closed more smuggling tunnels then Mubarak's men ever did. And during israel' assault against Gaza last year It was the Egyptian government under Morsi brokered the ceasefire.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Once again, the silence from the west is deafening. Just watch the BBC report and how gingerly the reporter was treating the incident, skipping over what the victims where saying with almost indecent haste and making the main focus of her piece the military's excuses for this massacre to the point where she would have done a military spokeswoman proud.

If the reports of the military pretty much mowing down protestors at prayer in a deliberate and unprovoked attack are accurate, then it sounds less like a screw up and more like a deliberate attempt to either try and intimidate the protestors into going home like what the military did under Mobarack, and/or was intended to try and push the Morsi supporters into open violence, so the army can justify using deadly force to clear all the anti-coup protestors off the streets because they are far more numerous than most apologists of this coup would like to believe, and if left unmolested, they can probably mount and sustain a similar sized anti-coup rally campaign as the one the army used as cover for their coup.

The army used the anti-Morsi protesters as an excuse for the coup, but if just as many if not more people turning up to support Morsi after the coup, it will put the lie to that excuse, and the army knows it.
 
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