Arab Spring II in Egypt. The potential Civil War.

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Player 0

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The Arab Spring in general has been poorly received, not just by China and Russia, the west and even Qatar and Saudi Arabia and Iran have backed down largely due to the nature of the violence and extremism that came about in Syria and Libya, only Turkey is still supporting it, and even then just Erdogan and his supporters
 
H

hardware

Banned Idiot
present of North korean military adviser in syria

according to report North korean military adviser was seen during the fighting in qusair.report claim that the NK military acted as adviser for pro assad troop
 
MwRYum

MwRYum

Major
Player 0 said:
The Arab Spring in general has been poorly received, not just by China and Russia, the west and even Qatar and Saudi Arabia and Iran have backed down largely due to the nature of the violence and extremism that came about in Syria and Libya, only Turkey is still supporting it, and even then just Erdogan and his supporters
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As much as for the objective observation that all the "Arab Spring-ed" nations either rendered impotent afterwards, or slipped into endless civil war, there're other things to consider those views:
1. As well as crushing local uprising, Saudi did send army to Qatar to "help" crush the Arab Spring there, and the US didn't make much of a fuzz about that;
2. During those times the West and the Western media was trying to fan up flames in China and Russia, but they were doing such a poor job in packaging that other than the usual suspects, it did the complete opposite in trigger the nationalism cord in both nations;

The truth is that the Arab Spring got things worse, all things considered...though the economic woes in Egypt is a powder keg by itself and will go boom anytime soon, with or without the Arab Spring.
 
F

Franklin

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It seems that in the country that started the Arab Spring Tunisia things are also not going well.

Gunmen kill eight Tunisian troops as political tensions rise

Gunmen killed at least eight Tunisian soldiers on Monday, staging the biggest attack on the security forces in decades as political tensions rose between supporters and opponents of the Islamist-led government.

President Moncef Marzouki called the ambush on Mount Chaambi, near the Algerian border, a "terrorist attack" and announced three days of mourning. Tunisian troops have been trying to track down Islamist militants in the remote region since December.

Tunisians fear they may be sliding into one of the worst crises in their political transition since autocratic leader Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was forced to flee during a 2011 uprising that set off revolts across the Arab world.

"We have entered the period of terrorism. We are going to pass through a difficult period but we shall overcome it," Marzouki said in a televised address. "I call on all politicians at this historic moment to stand for the nation and unite."

State television cut off normal programming to show pictures of the dead soldiers and wounded comrades, broadcasting Quranic verses and patriotic anthems in the background.

Thousands took to the streets in the town of al-Qasreen, near the site of the attack on the army, many of them demanding the government's ouster, residents in the area said.

Instability has been rising during the political chaos. Last week, the capital, Tunis, was hit by its first-ever car bomb, though no one was hurt.

After clashes between pro- and anti-government protesters on Monday, the army sealed off the main Bardo square in the capital with barbed wire and declared it a "closed military zone." Demonstrators on both sides vowed to return in the evening.

The secular Ettakatol party, a junior coalition partner, called on the moderate Islamist Ennahda party, which leads the government, to step down, saying a new administration representing a wider consensus was necessary. "If Ennahda rejects this proposal, we will withdraw from the government," Lobni Jribi, a party leader, told Reuters.

Prime Minister Ali Larayedh ignored the calls to create a new unity government and said he would carry on leading the country.

Protests aimed at ousting the government intensified last week after the second assassination of a politician from the secular opposition in six months. The government blamed hardline Salafist militants for both attacks, but the opposition holds Ennahda responsible, arguing that its leadership has not done enough to investigate and crack down on militant attacks.

PRESSURE MOUNTS TO DISSOLVE GOVERNMENT

Despite previous unrest, Tunisia had been a model for democratic transition among the "Arab Spring" states. But divisions are growing between the opposition - emboldened by the Egyptian army's ousting of elected Islamist President Mohamed Mursi - and Ennahda supporters, who are determined to avoid a similar fate.

"In all countries of the world, when the state faces a terrorist attack the people come together. But I don't see anything like that happening now in Tunisia," Marzouki said. "All we see is divisions and chaos."

The opposition may be able to mobilize Tunisians further against the government after Monday's ambush, which shocked the country and increased anti-government sentiment on social media.

This week the opposition rejected all concessions and efforts at reconciliation by Ennahda, arguing that its leaders bumbled for too long and that their time was up. It is planning to create its own rival "salvation government."

Tunisia's powerful General Union of Tunisian Workers was in talks with the opposition on Monday, and has said it may discuss a strike. Last Friday, its strike called to mourn the assassinated leftist politician, Mohamed Brahmi, paralyzed much of the country.

Larayedh struck a note of defiance in a speech on Monday, calling the opposition protesters "coupists." He also challenged his critics to act constructively.

"We are open to all kinds of dialogue with all sides. We want specific proposals," he said. "Any precise suggestions regarding increasing the effectiveness of the government, bring them forward."

A Constituent Assembly is only weeks away from completing a long-delayed draft constitution to be put to a referendum.

The secular opposition has called for the 217-member Assembly to be dissolved. In the last few days, 70 lawmakers have left the body and set up a sit-in protest outside its headquarters.

In the city of Sidi Bouzid, angry protesters tried to storm municipal offices to stop employees from going to work, residents said, provoking clashes with Ennahda supporters.

The army intervened to protect the offices and police fired teargas, but residents said thousands of demonstrators were gathering in the southern city, the cradle of Tunisia's revolt.

Many people joining the growing street protests have expressed anger at Tunisia's instability and economic stagnation.

Others are frustrated that the constitution, originally promised one year after the 2011 uprising, has yet to be completed and are suspicious of the transitional government.
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pissybits

Junior Member
Player 0 said:
The Arab Spring in general has been poorly received, not just by China and Russia, the west and even Qatar and Saudi Arabia and Iran have backed down largely due to the nature of the violence and extremism that came about in Syria and Libya, only Turkey is still supporting it, and even then just Erdogan and his supporters
Click to expand...

the arab spring cannot be described as a cohesive movement toward "freedom and democracy" as certain naive media sources in the west like to portray it. rather it is the culmination of political and economic woes (injustice/exploitation/neocolonialism) that have boiled over, first in north africa, then inspiring other nations in the arab world.

in large part it was sparked by general economic malaise following the 2008 global credit crunch and weak demand from europe. partially it is also due to a weakening of u.s. power in the region, with the shift of american focus to the pacific resulting in somewhat of a power vacuum.

a series of insurrections and coups followed, but hopeful supporters of secularist constitutionalism saw their hopes shattered as islamist governments rose to power. (religion as a political tool simply had the most appeal as the lowest common denominator)

saudi arabia and qatar are on the same side of the u.s. more or less, and in this case they condemn it simply because they did not want an insurrection on their OWN hands. (unlikely because they are too rich) iran is at more risk for such an insurrection themselves so they will condemn it for sure, but iran actually has something to gain from chaos in the arab world.

saudi only wants stability so they are less threatened and can keep selling their oil in the american-kept peace. iran sees these insurrections in the aftermath of the arab spring as an opportunity to expand their influence to counter saudi arabia, and to carve out a bigger market for its oil.

turkey supports it because they know they are at little risk for a similar insurrection, while like iran they might have something to gain.

china and russia, (much in the nature of iran and saudi) condemn it because as autocratic countries with their own justice/equality issues can see themselves facing the remote possibility of similar insurrections.

however no matter what these countries' official diplomatic stance is, they are all funneling money into certain groups involved in the mess that has become of the arab spring. everyone's got their bets down on someone, because the reality is, there's gonna be changes in the balance of power in the region, and everyone wants to cut a slice. this only makes the situation much worse, which is why many people are saying that the arab spring has been "hijacked."

the u.s. pretty much wants what saudi wants, which incidentally is also what israel wants. they just want things back to the way things were because all this violence is scary and bad for business. they are the ones who had it best with the pre-arab spring arrangement. this may seem odd (israel and saudi with the same political goals) but those are the twisted behind-the-scenes political dynamics in the age we live in! (saudi has never been serious about countering israel despite its rhetoric)
 
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Equation

Equation

Lieutenant General
solarz said:
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Things just got real ugly. I expect that death count to skyrocket in a few days.
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And yet there are more blood spilled in Tahrir Square than in Tienanmen Square(I'm just mentioning it not discussing it as to forum rules) and yet no western media or human rights groups condemnation? And no weapon sales embargo to Egypt?
 
MwRYum

MwRYum

Major
Equation said:
And yet there are more blood spilled in Tahrir Square than in Tienanmen Square(I'm just mentioning it not discussing it as to forum rules) and yet no western media or human rights groups condemnation? And no weapon sales embargo to Egypt?
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That's because Egypt is still needed in the greater scheme of things, but China? Although the death of USSR was in the end of 1991, but by '89 the signs are there, and the West already foresee who will be the next target. It's stupidity to aid your enemy.

But Egypt not only militarily and geographically significant, but also the entirety of the Suez Canal is within its border; besides, despite all the talks of democracy, the West ain't going to let Egypt join the rank of governments ruled by radical Islam doctrine, worse the Muslim Brotherhood is the mother of all the radical islamist terrorist groups, including the AQ.

That said, the West will weep a few croc tears for those in Tarir Square, but no more than that.
 
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