Arab Spring II in Egypt. The potential Civil War.
- Thread starter Jeff Head
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Equation
Lieutenant General
It could be, but starting from where though (as in what date)? That number of death could be including the time before the Morsi supporters came out in numbers during the Ramadan season.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The latest reports coming out of Egypt include 7 soldiers killed in the Sinan in an ambush and 43 soldiers were listed amongst the dead from the crack down.
Assuming the military deaths are not made up or exaggerated, the violence in Egypt seems to be accelerating into a more bloody and dangerous phase, whereby instead of just allowing themselves to be slaughtered, the MB are starting to fight back.
From the official government rhetoric, it seems they believe cracking down harder is the way to go, but I think that will only radicalise more people and put guns and bombs in their hands. As more government troops are killed, the government position will harden, and the soldiers well get more brutal and trigger happy as fear and tension build up and they start loosing friends in combat. That will in turn drive more ordinary people into taking up arms as they are brutalised and/or loose friends and family to government bullets, and soon everyone will be locked in a vicious self sustaining cycle of death and violence and its Syria all over again.
The only saving grace so far is that it seems no external power is actively trying to destabilise Egypt as the Gulf States and Turkey did with Syria, and without outsiders pumping in weapons and wiping up the locals, there is a chance the MB will lack the support and organisation to make too much of a fight out of it, and the government will just slaughter enough of them that the rest will be cowed into submission without the situation descending into all out civil war, which seems to be what the current regime in Egypt is banking on.
Assuming the military deaths are not made up or exaggerated, the violence in Egypt seems to be accelerating into a more bloody and dangerous phase, whereby instead of just allowing themselves to be slaughtered, the MB are starting to fight back.
From the official government rhetoric, it seems they believe cracking down harder is the way to go, but I think that will only radicalise more people and put guns and bombs in their hands. As more government troops are killed, the government position will harden, and the soldiers well get more brutal and trigger happy as fear and tension build up and they start loosing friends in combat. That will in turn drive more ordinary people into taking up arms as they are brutalised and/or loose friends and family to government bullets, and soon everyone will be locked in a vicious self sustaining cycle of death and violence and its Syria all over again.
The only saving grace so far is that it seems no external power is actively trying to destabilise Egypt as the Gulf States and Turkey did with Syria, and without outsiders pumping in weapons and wiping up the locals, there is a chance the MB will lack the support and organisation to make too much of a fight out of it, and the government will just slaughter enough of them that the rest will be cowed into submission without the situation descending into all out civil war, which seems to be what the current regime in Egypt is banking on.
AQ is a child of the subversion of Afghanistan in the '80's, paid for by Saudi Arabia and the CIA. The Muslim Brotherhood is certainly not its "mother". See how Saudi Arabia and the US now cooperate and sponsor AQ in Syria.
Geographer
Junior Member
I've never clicked "Like" on so many of plawolf's posts before this thread. He is making many excellent points.
Democracies use elections to remove unpopular governments, not coup d'tats. That is the virtue of a democracy, having a non-violent, systematic way to channel public opinion into new leadership. Change can sometimes come slow in a democracy but it does come, and when it comes, the method by which it comes saves lives over the other options.
The Egyptian coup was a chance for the United States to make a principled stand for democracy. It's easy to support democracy when pro-U.S. leaders win elections. Let's see the U.S. support democracy when a pro-U.S. military establishment topples a leader less friendly to America. That's the real test of where Obama stands on democracy and so far he has failed it.
I believe in the necessity and virtue of freedom of speech, freedom to practice one's religion, and freedom to vote for whatever political party you want. I will defend the right of the Ku Klux Klan to hold a rally on public property, for Alex Jones to rant about the New World Order and how the government is poisoning the water supply with fluoride, or for Mormon or Catholic or Islamic Fundamentalists to preach that atheists are going to Hell. A belief in personal liberty means defending the right of people to disagree with you, even the protests inconvenience you.
Ron Paul made a good point when he said the purpose of the First Amendment protecting the freedom of speech is not so we can talk about the weather, it's to protect sensitive and controversial speech that is likely to draw the scrutiny of whoever is in power.
President Obama and John Kerry and the ambassador and other top officials missed a perfect opportunity to make this argument. It is outrageous that $1.5 billion is taken from American taxpayers and given to the Egyptian military plutocrats to overthrow an elected government.
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood hadn't done anything violent decades despite countless provocations from the Egyptian dictatorship. They patiently waited and waited and waited, building their reputation on charities and community organizing, all while having their members arrested and sodomized. They win Egypt's first fair elections and prove to be better charity workers than politicians. The same thing has happened in other countries and the proper response is to oust them in the next elections.
But the military was impatient. It wanted to go back to the old days of using the MB as the bogeyman to justify their autocracy and embezzlement. The military removed Mubarak because he had become a liability, not because the military was genuinely committed in democracy.
Now the United States is aiding and abetting the coup by funding the army and giving only tepid criticism. I cannot express how disappointed I am with President Obama and his staff for his unprincipled, weak response to the Egypt coup d'tat.
Democracies use elections to remove unpopular governments, not coup d'tats. That is the virtue of a democracy, having a non-violent, systematic way to channel public opinion into new leadership. Change can sometimes come slow in a democracy but it does come, and when it comes, the method by which it comes saves lives over the other options.
The Egyptian coup was a chance for the United States to make a principled stand for democracy. It's easy to support democracy when pro-U.S. leaders win elections. Let's see the U.S. support democracy when a pro-U.S. military establishment topples a leader less friendly to America. That's the real test of where Obama stands on democracy and so far he has failed it.
I believe in the necessity and virtue of freedom of speech, freedom to practice one's religion, and freedom to vote for whatever political party you want. I will defend the right of the Ku Klux Klan to hold a rally on public property, for Alex Jones to rant about the New World Order and how the government is poisoning the water supply with fluoride, or for Mormon or Catholic or Islamic Fundamentalists to preach that atheists are going to Hell. A belief in personal liberty means defending the right of people to disagree with you, even the protests inconvenience you.
Ron Paul made a good point when he said the purpose of the First Amendment protecting the freedom of speech is not so we can talk about the weather, it's to protect sensitive and controversial speech that is likely to draw the scrutiny of whoever is in power.
President Obama and John Kerry and the ambassador and other top officials missed a perfect opportunity to make this argument. It is outrageous that $1.5 billion is taken from American taxpayers and given to the Egyptian military plutocrats to overthrow an elected government.
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood hadn't done anything violent decades despite countless provocations from the Egyptian dictatorship. They patiently waited and waited and waited, building their reputation on charities and community organizing, all while having their members arrested and sodomized. They win Egypt's first fair elections and prove to be better charity workers than politicians. The same thing has happened in other countries and the proper response is to oust them in the next elections.
But the military was impatient. It wanted to go back to the old days of using the MB as the bogeyman to justify their autocracy and embezzlement. The military removed Mubarak because he had become a liability, not because the military was genuinely committed in democracy.
Now the United States is aiding and abetting the coup by funding the army and giving only tepid criticism. I cannot express how disappointed I am with President Obama and his staff for his unprincipled, weak response to the Egypt coup d'tat.
I just received an email from an Egyptian college of my wife's. She said that the dead Egyptians are the happiest now and that in Nasr City, some 20 minutes walk from her parents house 2500 people were killed. It is sickening. This is likely to destroy Egypt more effectively than Libya has been destroyed. The US excuses to continue to subsidize the military dictatorship sound extremely feeble. The US is losing whatever prestige it had among ordinary people in the Middle East.
Well it simply means that the veneer of morality and self assumed righteousness has followed Elvis out of the building.
Now there is no more pretence that it matters what you do, simply which side you are on.
sadly politics is not a war of ideologies, (that's philosophy) it is a war of influence
solarz
Brigadier
Syria is not that far from Egypt.
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