A Sino-US alliance, is that feasible?

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Gaginang

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RavenWing278 said:
china is only communist by name.
while the US might not help Taiwan in the event of an invasion by PRC, it would not want to appear weak and a hypocrite to the rest of the world. my guess is that the US would have an agreement with China secretly yet say something else entirely to the media. eg. give china advice on how to invade taiwan rapidly so the US can make up a story of how we werent ready and couldnt deplay rapidly enough to come the aid of taiwan
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the us will switch alliance as long as it suit its benefit, we can take examples from south vietname and cambodia. but i still think the US will back the taiwanese if the chinese invade them, but if the taiwanese make a stupid move in the future, like declaring independence. i don't think the US will help. because it's just making unnesessary provokation.
 
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sunchips

Just Hatched
Registered Member
i myself would like to see sino-us relations to improve in general, but frankly, i don't care about the military relations. I think pla will imporve drastically in next few years+decades, and then, the us will be the ones who want military alliance. as someone said before, sino-us military alliance wont benefit china much... and really, e.g. from history.... china isn't all that power-hungry... so i don't think it will really care....

just my humble opinion :)
 
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IDonT

Senior Member
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There is a Chinese saying that goes:
"There are no permanent enemies or permanent friends."

In 1900, if you say that France, Britain will be in a military alliance with Germany in the future. Many people will say that is a foolish dream.

In 1935, if you say that US and Japan will be allies in the future. Many people will say that is a foolish dream.

In 1930's Japan was the threat and China was the victim in need of America's help. It was the reason for the Oil Embargo on Japan, an embargo that ultimately led to Pearl Harbor.

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goldenpanda

Banned Idiot
Some amount of competition is healthy for everybody. This is especially true for China. The need to unify Taiwan--with possible US intervention--is what energizes our military and technology transformation today. Without it China atrophies like in so many cycles in its history.

Compare to USA which instinctively creates threats and challenges for itself. USA, a country that has not been invaded in 200 years, has never lacked itself an enemy--mexico, spain, germany, japan, china, soviet union, CUBA, north vietnam, japan again, china again, north korea, iran, IRAQ. How easy it is for USA to discover how nasty some one's country is, when the discovery suits its needs!

It is two different perspectives of civilizations. The first perspective wants to eliminate threats, then enjoy the peace with wine and peaches. The second perspective wants to "keep'em coming". The hunter's search for game never ends. His instinct never rests. It is his constitutional vitality. It is his co-existence with the violence of nature.

The first perspective will always lose. That was China's lesson since the early 1990's. Hate Japan, take Taiwan--it is the move toward the second perspective. It is the sheep that is training to match the wolves.
 
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bigstick61

bigstick61

Junior Member
I seriously doubt that there will ever be an alliance between the US and the PRC now or in the future. A conflict, limited or major, is more likely in my opinion, doe to conflicting and competing interests which provide many potential sources of conflict, and also the PRC's alliance with enemies of the US. There is also the totalitarian government in the PRC to consider.

As for the US and the ROC, they have been allies with us for a long time, and our betrayal of them under the Nixon Administration was a tragedy. They fought alongide us in WWII, and also provided forces for operations in Vietnam, including covert operations, such as flights over North Vietnam for personnel recovery, agent delivery, and such, as they had considerable experience flying over the areas controlled by the ChiComs. The ROC was a founding member of the UN and a permanent member of the security council. They are also much older than the PRC government. Many claim that it is the ROC government and supporters that are in rebellion, but really, it is the PRC that is in rebellion. The ROC to this day claims sovereignty over the rest of China, along with some other areas given up by the PRC over the years, and there are still quite a few nations which recognize it as China's legitimate government (around 20, I believe), and more which give it unofficial recognition (to include the US). What I'd like to see, although it is highly unlikely, is for the ROC government to once again be in Peking and for China to be united under the ROC banner.
 
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scorpioking

New Member
bigstick61 said:
I seriously doubt that there will ever be an alliance between the US and the PRC now or in the future. A conflict, limited or major, is more likely in my opinion, doe to conflicting and competing interests which provide many potential sources of conflict, and also the PRC's alliance with enemies of the US. There is also the totalitarian government in the PRC to consider.

As for the US and the ROC, they have been allies with us for a long time, and our betrayal of them under the Nixon Administration was a tragedy. They fought alongide us in WWII, and also provided forces for operations in Vietnam, including covert operations, such as flights over North Vietnam for personnel recovery, agent delivery, and such, as they had considerable experience flying over the areas controlled by the ChiComs. The ROC was a founding member of the UN and a permanent member of the security council. They are also much older than the PRC government. Many claim that it is the ROC government and supporters that are in rebellion, but really, it is the PRC that is in rebellion. The ROC to this day claims sovereignty over the rest of China, along with some other areas given up by the PRC over the years, and there are still quite a few nations which recognize it as China's legitimate government (around 20, I believe), and more which give it unofficial recognition (to include the US). What I'd like to see, although it is highly unlikely, is for the ROC government to once again be in Peking and for China to be united under the ROC banner.
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Don't be naive, interest and benefit are the ever lasting targets, friendship and freedom are not, so it is feasible to have an alliance between these 2 countries
 
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fishhead

Banned Idiot
For ROC, coming back to Nanking(not Beijing or Peking) is basically a wet dream.

CCP ensured it impossible in two ways. First Mao ordered to kill almost all KMT members remained in mainland, in millions in 50s, as the revenge(KMT did kill a lot CCP members under their rule as well). So physically, no old KMT guards or even their familiy members left(they don't know their parents/grand parents were KMT).

Second, today's CCP redistributed wealth and power. There are new elites, ruling class, rich people in China today with little background connected to KMT. They have no interest to share their wealth and power with those from Taiwan. Ideologically, there is very little difference between today's CCP from old KMT, but social architecture changes totally.

Those escaped to Taiwan hates CCP since their properties and wealth were deprived by CCP. But their chance to get that back is tiny at best. So basically Taiwan has two groupd people in domination, realistic ones want independence, those with revenge idea still insist fighting with CCP and get their lost back, people in the middle are in small number, but may grow in the future.
 
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fishhead

Banned Idiot
In pre-reform Chinese mailand, KMT has the real chance to come back. Since at that time CCP rules purly based on ideology, their power base is army and those believing in their -ism.

But after Deng reforming, everything changes. Today CCP rules with support of interest groups - elite gained most in the reform, urban people, intellectuals(not surprise, you can't compare that with Soviet since intellectuals in China today are among highest income groups).

And that's why people of Taiwan turned to independent idea after CCP reform, not before that. The elite in Taiwan realized that their chance of coming back is gone forever.
 
bigstick61

bigstick61

Junior Member
Don't be naive, interest and benefit are the ever lasting targets, friendship and freedom are not, so it is feasible to have an alliance between these 2 countries
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Oh, I understand that. On the global scene, all nation-states are self-interested in which is essentially an anarchical system. However, PRC and US interests conflict and compete in so many ways that there could never be an alliance. The interests of one in most areas are not in the interests of the other. Such is not a foundation for any feasible alliance. In the US, realistically, ideology can come into play.

For ROC, coming back to Nanking(not Beijing or Peking) is basically a wet dream.
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I understand this, which is why I said it is highly unlikely that it would ever happen. The only way at this point I can see it happening is if the Allies defeated the PRC in a full-scale war, and as part of the peace treaty, eliminated the PRC government and reinstated the ROC government as the controller over all of China. Otherwise, it cannot happen. American betrayal of the ROC pretty much spelled the end of that as a realistic goal bariing a full-scale war scenario with American and possibly (likely) other Allied asistance.
 
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fishhead

Banned Idiot
There is no "allies" today, it doesn't exist.

Before a "full-scale war" achieves anything, you'wll see nuclear missles hovering all over the places, kind of suicid for anybody.

As I said CCP government today is purly an interest driven regime, just like past Japan, German or Italy or Britain or France, that governs a purly capitalism system. History shows that such kind of regime can't be overthrown by any peaceful ways, and a "full-scale war" is impossible.

ROC regime is not accepted by majority mainland Chinese, esp elite class, too much interest conflict.
 
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