A Sino-US alliance, is that feasible?

Dear Vlad I may hope that your optimist vision will become reality but the unpredictable risks in sino-american relations could also support a more pessimist or even alarmist point of view

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What risks? Seriously, what problem do we have with China right now? Our problem is that we can't control their power.

However, we don't realize it's not a power we can control. When we do realize that, we'll be begging China for an alliance because we want to at least maintain some semblance of power.

tphuang said:

Yes, but USA is united. If Taiwan is not a separate country, why would China need unite with Taiwan? People, there is an official, diplomatic view and then the reality. At best, we can say that there is some special relationship between the two countries which may allow for a future reunification when conditions are right.

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Well, there were numerous events properly called unification in Chinese history. For example, the Qin Dynasty united China from the Warring states era, the Jin Dynasty united China from the Three Kingdom era, the Sui Dynasty united China from the Southern and Northern Dynasties era, and the Song Dynasty united China from The Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms era. Prior to these events China was in a divided state but nevertheless there was only one China, and calling these events as unification does not change that fact. (For example, one can say that there were seven “countries” in the Warring States era, but at least I find it uncomfortable to say that any one of those was not part of China.)

Even in Laws of ROC, Taiwan is part of China, the territory includes both mainland and Taiwan, did you realize that when you made the post?

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Actually in the constitution of the Republic of China... territorial borders aren't defined. It doesn't say what the ROC is composed of, though obviously at the time it was drafted it was assumed that it meant China, Taiwan, perhaps Greater Mongolia... just saying that from legal terminology it doesn't say anything about where borders are.

Chapter I General Provisions

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Article 2
The sovereignty of the Republic of China shall reside in the whole body of citizens.

Article 3
Persons with the nationality of the Republic of China shall be citizens of the Republic of China.

Article 4
The territory of the Republic of China within its existing national boundaries shall not be altered except by a resolution of the National Assembly.

...

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That's basically all it says regarding borders, citizenship etc.

Vlad Plasmius said:

What risks? Seriously, what problem do we have with China right now? Our problem is that we can't control their power.

However, we don't realize it's not a power we can control. When we do realize that, we'll be begging China for an alliance because we want to at least maintain some semblance of power.

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Well there's another way to explain the ramping up of the China threat, which would be the power transition theory. It basically assumes that the international system is hierarchical as opposed to anarchic, a dominant state writes the rules of the international system, and dissatisfied fast growing states challenge the dominant states. Major implications are that ensuing conflict is about domination, i.e., rewriting the international rules. Power transition is a theory for major wars though, not just any war.

In a nutshell, conflict is more likely to occur when the current dominant power feels that is may be overtaken by the rising power, or when the rising power feels it can defeat the current dominant power. I don't expect the United States to easily give up its notion of exceptionalism.

scorpioking said:

Even in Laws of ROC, Taiwan is part of China, the territory includes both mainland and Taiwan, did you realize that when you made the post?

Sorry about the deviation, my point is the sooner China and US settled the Taiwan issue the better the relationship will be. A war between US and China is a crazy idea, that will be the end of the world. So both countries have to face the truth, that is the ground why I am positive about the "alliance", of course it may not be like the NATO, but it will be helpful in a lot issues like North-Korean nuclear bomb

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The original issue I brought up was the fact that the US is an ally of China, the RoC.

zraver said:

The original issue I brought up was the fact that the US is an ally of China, the RoC.

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The leaders of US know how to value the interest
there are something or some trends no one can stop including the US. I am always positive about that, more and more cooperations between 2 countries, it may not be called alliance officially but it will work as it is, as we all know alliance is just a name, it is all about interest trade off and how to gain more for parties covered by the relation.
China and US are doing really well about that, 2 evil countries are exhausting the earth together.

zraver said:

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I will also point out that the goverment in Taipei is older than the Goverment in Bejing and called the Republic of China, and has every right to be considered a legitimate governing body for its people.

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That's only a technicality. And one that doesn't even matter now. Both KMT and CCP came out of the same political upheaval. Mao and Shak were cadres at the same school. Very interesting piece of history.

Well there's another way to explain the ramping up of the China threat, which would be the power transition theory. It basically assumes that the international system is hierarchical as opposed to anarchic, a dominant state writes the rules of the international system, and dissatisfied fast growing states challenge the dominant states. Major implications are that ensuing conflict is about domination, i.e., rewriting the international rules. Power transition is a theory for major wars though, not just any war.

In a nutshell, conflict is more likely to occur when the current dominant power feels that is may be overtaken by the rising power, or when the rising power feels it can defeat the current dominant power. I don't expect the United States to easily give up its notion of exceptionalism.

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While I think that's by all means logical it's also inevitable that a successor will arise and whoever can best serve the interests of the dominant power will be chosen.

I think Russia, India, and the EU would be the other countries that might succeed us, and I think that China is a more likely choice than any of them.

The biggest reason is China has substantially more power than any of them.

China is recently making some changes in its laws, most recently allowing land ownership. This can be seen by many as evidence that China is advancing away from socialism. China's economy is not socialist, and now its constitution may be verring awayfrom that too. So there's a chance that China and U.S. will one day find common grounds and decides to work with each other. After all, U.S. cares about money, and China is a good place to boost the United State's economy.

fishhead said:

I read an interview of Thomas P.M. Barnett by an oversea Chinese media, article in Chinese (the media itself is pretty anti the present Chinese political structure)

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This guy is promoting the idea of Sino-US alliance, actually he is doing that for quite long time, here is his web site. But this time he is even saying China should send troops to Iraq.

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This is not the new idea, a few months ago, Michael Lind said the samething

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It's not the main stream idea yet, neither in US nor China. Their point is that US shouldn't threat China for Taiwan, and let the thing evolves itself. And US should form an alliance with China, since both have more common interests in the world.

Is this feasible? I know there are many hurdles in both sides, idealogy, history background, interest conflict, cuture difference, etc. But I predict this kind of thing will pop out more in the future.

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An alliance like that... two military bodybuilder countries... but they think very different, that sound more like a political thread rather than military...
I think it favors too much the U.S. but I dont think China will get too much benefit from an alliance like that... off course Im not saying than Chinese military is stronger than U.S. military, I mean U.S. soldiers in Iraq are sick to be overthere (jejeje, belive me) , China have fresh troops, If China send troops to Irak, U.S. can withdraw some of their aging troops. But what China can get out of an alliance like that? U.S. help them invade Taiwan...? Thats sounds imposible. I know Taiwan ask the U.S. for more F-16s to try to counter the chinese maded J-10s but what U.S. do about it?? the same thing than you and me do... we dont sell F-16s to Taiwan no more. Based on this action I don't think U.S. will help Taiwan if China invade them. But neither U.S. will betray Taiwan trust to help China, besides we have more things to care about in the middle east... In few words I dont think China and U.S. will join forces anytime soon, more than that I think is more probably someday U.S. and China fight each other... If China keeps improving their military probably in 2 decades or 3 we gonna have a new kind of cold war (U.S. and China instead the U.S.S.R. and U.S.) cause U.S. and China have diferent perspective of how the things should be scince U.S. is capitalist and China is communist, If you ask me I will love an Sino-American alliance but seems quite imposible for now... (unless we have a huge treat agaisnt the entire world... things like a meteor impact or an huge allien invation just like independence day, jeje just kidding)

china is only communist by name.
while the US might not help Taiwan in the event of an invasion by PRC, it would not want to appear weak and a hypocrite to the rest of the world. my guess is that the US would have an agreement with China secretly yet say something else entirely to the media. eg. give china advice on how to invade taiwan rapidly so the US can make up a story of how we werent ready and couldnt deplay rapidly enough to come the aid of taiwan