Dear Vlad I may hope that your optimist vision will become reality but the unpredictable risks in sino-american relations could also support a more pessimist or even alarmist point of view.
Some ´geniusses´in China's current leadership harbour the illusion that a ´steadily deepening economic relationship´ i.e. in effect delivering masses of consumer goods and subsequently underwriting the bills with US Treasury Bonds bought by the BoC in awesome volume (BoC + other state banks + Hong Kong banks: 500 bn $ +). Unfourtunately their ´plan´ is deeply flawed because their hope that China would be able to
buy security or at least a stable strategic environment from the ´almighty´ hyperpower is simply futile.
Security cannot be bought in $$$ or in RMB since the only money able to ´buy´that is denominated only in
comprehensive power. China will have to work hard and obviously pay also hefty bills to create a viable array of balanced
(political, diplomatic, military, economic, media) power instruments but going through this difficult process is the only way to solve China's problems!
Ignoring the brutal lessons of history where a wealthy but strategically (mostly tech and military) weak China was humiliated and defeated by foreign powers would be a disaster for the people and in times of crisis or even war
comprehensive strategic POWER is the only coin able to buy security for a global player like the PRC. Going down along this dangerous
selfdefeating path of submissive appeasement would lead China direct into a dead end situation since the US will inevitably teach China a painful and redundant lesson. The US will swiftly demonstrate who holds the decisive cards and CPC leaders will be forced to
eat every ´humble pie´Washington puts on the table for them.
(Perhaps without sufficient ´democratic reform´ (fill in also ´human rights´, ´religion´, ´rule of law´, ´stop eating dogs´...)
(of course Washington will define the rules here) China's trade, investment or energy supply gets suddenly
´unstable´?)
At least one thing will be although of relevance to leaders who are oblivious to history's harsh lessons:
the chinese people will not tolerate people in power having the bad habit of not doing their ´homework´.
(And that is probably exactly the outcome shrewd longterm strategists in the US are tirelessly working for; think twice about it comrades! )
