09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[kwaigonegin]

I agree that "the US navy is not worried yet" doesn't really help us understand how far China is behind - but I think it indicates that the US navy is confident China will stay behind for some years to come.

These are all fallacies and illogical reasonings .. Chinese subs don't need to be quieter than any other country's subs and vice versa.

All it needs is to be QUIET enough to not get detected and pounce.

There will come a time in the not so distant future where I believe the sonar as we know it today will be rendered ineffective and new technologies or some breakthrough in radar tech has to be achieved and developed to detect future subs.

USN just like many of the world's navies I presume has a large DB of known acoustic signatures of known subs. With careful extrapolation and dessimnation many subs can be at risk for detection.

Like I said bottom line is PLAN subs don't need to be quieter than Virginia class.. They only need to be quiet enough where a Virginia can't hear them.

 

[Equation]

These are all fallacies and illogical reasonings .. Chinese subs don't need to be quieter than any other country's subs and vice versa.

All it needs is to be QUIET enough to not get detected and pounce.

There will come a time in the not so distant future where I believe the sonar as we know it today will be rendered ineffective and new technologies or some breakthrough in radar tech has to be achieved and developed to detect future subs.

USN just like many of the world's navies I presume has a large DB of known acoustic signatures of known subs. With careful extrapolation and dessimnation many subs can be at risk for detection.

Like I said bottom line is PLAN subs don't need to be quieter than Virginia class.. They only need to be quiet enough where a Virginia can't hear them.

True, but the PLAN crew subs has to work a little harder and be a little more creative when in operation of the ocean at risk of running into the Virginia class subs. Any extra advantage will always help whether it is equipment or crew.

 

[Richard Santos]

These are all fallacies and illogical reasonings .. Chinese subs don't need to be quieter than any other country's subs and vice versa.

All it needs is to be QUIET enough to not get detected and pounce.

There will come a time in the not so distant future where I believe the sonar as we know it today will be rendered ineffective and new technologies or some breakthrough in radar tech has to be achieved and developed to detect future subs.

USN just like many of the world's navies I presume has a large DB of known acoustic signatures of known subs. With careful extrapolation and dessimnation many subs can be at risk for detection.

Like I said bottom line is PLAN subs don't need to be quieter than Virginia class.. They only need to be quiet enough where a Virginia can't hear them.

Just being quite enough to not get detected is hardly enough. It has to move fast enough to position itself to pounce against opponents whose behavior would be calculated to maximize its difficulty in doing so, while avoiding detection.

 

[Blitzo]

I think a good hint about chinese nuclear submarines not yet catching up is that the US navy seems to be happy with their current submarines. Once the performance of chinese nuclear submarines gets close enough that the US navy gets worried I would expect to hear loud demands for extra budgets to build a next generation of SSNs and SSBNs.

Sort of, not really... any military service would begin development of a new generation of weapons eventually, and in the case of the USN they do have a Virginia class replacement/highly evolved Virginia class in development.

And then there's the issue of whether the desire to retain their "lead" will eventually even still be feasible over time.

 

[Richard Santos]

Sort of, not really... any military service would begin development of a new generation of weapons eventually, and in the case of the USN they do have a Virginia class replacement/highly evolved Virginia class in development.

And then there's the issue of whether the desire to retain their "lead" will eventually even still be feasible over time.

Sort of, not really... any military service would begin development of a new generation of weapons eventually, and in the case of the USN they do have a Virginia class replacement/highly evolved Virginia class in development.

And then there's the issue of whether the desire to retain their "lead" will eventually even still be feasible over time.

It's by no means clear whether any disruptive technology could arise that would reduce the importance of acoustic advantage.

 

[Blitzo]

It's by no means clear whether any disruptive technology could arise that would reduce the importance of acoustic advantage.

Yes, but that wasn't what I was getting at.

I was suggesting that there will likely eventually be a point where the gap in submarine performance (including acoustic stealth) will reach a point where it is closed and where it may be unsustainable for the US to try and maintain the kind of lead that it historically has.

 

[Iron Man]

Sort of, not really... any military service would begin development of a new generation of weapons eventually, and in the case of the USN they do have a Virginia class replacement/highly evolved Virginia class in development.

And then there's the issue of whether the desire to retain their "lead" will eventually even still be feasible over time.

The actual Virginia replacement is slated for the 2040s, so that is far off from now. Current upgrades to Virginia are same-class via blocks. Not all of these blocks involve better silencing technology.

 

[Blitzo]

The actual Virginia replacement is slated for the 2040s, so that is far off from now. Current upgrades to Virginia are same-class via blocks. Not all of these blocks involve better silencing technology.

yes, my point was that R&D of the next generation will always be done eventually, and that linking the speed or urgency of that development cycle (especially for the US) with how much they assess one type of their weapon qualitatively compares with that of an adversary's qualitative capability or industrial/technological capability is not necessarily correct.

====

anyway, I find this discussion about what 09V may be like to be a bit confusing when we don't even really know how quiet 09III and 09IIIB really compares to other SSNs and how we probably never will.

 

[Iron Man]

yes, my point was that R&D of the next generation will always be done eventually, and that linking the speed or urgency of that development cycle (especially for the US) with how much they assess one type of their weapon qualitatively compares with that of an adversary's qualitative capability or industrial/technological capability is not necessarily correct.

That's pretty much what I said earlier.

anyway, I find this discussion about what 09V may be like to be a bit confusing when we don't even really know how quiet 09III and 09IIIB really compares to other SSNs and how we probably never will.

It's always fun to guess, as long as ALL parties involved here understand that is all we are doing, and not turn this into some kind of earnest discussion just because someone thinks they have a 'good' analysis of this or that sub tech. They don't, and we're all just guessing. That's really the bottom line.

 

[Blitzo]

That's pretty much what I said earlier.

I'm not sure which post of yours you are referring to.

In any case, my previous post which said this (1074) was not in reply to you but to schenkus.

It's always fun to guess, as long as ALL parties involved here understand that is all we are doing, and not turn this into some kind of earnest discussion just because someone thinks they have a 'good' analysis of this or that sub tech. They don't, and we're all just guessing. That's really the bottom line.

Yes, of course there's nothing wrong with making guesses. I do think it's a bit weird making guesses for 09V when the issue of 09III/09IIIB's relative acoustic stealth has yet to really be settled though.