09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Totoro]

Just checked out monthly available images of Huludao via sentinel hub, from 2022 to today.

I must say I did not see that many instances a sub or something like a sub appearing in the drydock.

May 2022 a sub is visible.
January 2023 another sub visible.
July 2023 nothing visible, despite reports of a sub being launched.
October 2023, nothing visible but in September there was a sub looking shape visible.
February 2023 nothing visible, despite reports.
July 2024 nothing visible, but in June a sub was visible.
August 2024, a shadow/shape that might look like a sub was visible.

Other months that are not mentioned either had nothing visible or contained a sub from the previous month, without an instance where said sub left the drydock in the meantime.

Caveat: due to intermittent coverage and occasional clouds, there were instances where there's no good imagery for a period of two weeks.

Could it be that, instead of 7 launches so far there have been, in fact, 5 or fewer?

 

[Blitzo]

Just checked out monthly available images of Huludao via sentinel hub, from 2022 to today.

I must say I did not see that many instances a sub or something like a sub appearing in the drydock.

May 2022 a sub is visible.
January 2023 another sub visible.
July 2023 nothing visible, despite reports of a sub being launched.
October 2023, nothing visible but in September there was a sub looking shape visible.
February 2023 nothing visible, despite reports.
July 2024 nothing visible, but in June a sub was visible.
August 2024, a shadow/shape that might look like a sub was visible.

Other months that are not mentioned either had nothing visible or contained a sub from the previous month, without an instance where said sub left the drydock in the meantime.

Caveat: due to intermittent coverage and occasional clouds, there were instances where there's no good imagery for a period of two weeks.

Could it be that, instead of 7 launches so far there have been, in fact, 5 or fewer?

The number of launches could be "anything" considering how many poor quality images (i.e.: only sentinel hub or equivalent quality) images we have, and how few good quality images we have.

In theory, even the good quality images of the launches for all we know could be depicting the same submarine (unlikely, but possible).


Ultimately it's all just estimates, so there's no particular reason to try to disprove it, all we have are just a confidence interval.

 

[snake65]

I must say I did not see that many instances a sub or something like a sub appearing in the drydock.
Could it be that, instead of 7 launches so far there have been, in fact, 5 or fewer?

You also have to consider that the new subs are not staying submerged and should appear at sub bases for trials/induction, as the sub will stay in Huludao only for builders trials. Do we have a visual confirmation of more SSNs visible in Huludao and sub bases?

 

[Maikeru]

Just checked out monthly available images of Huludao via sentinel hub, from 2022 to today.

I must say I did not see that many instances a sub or something like a sub appearing in the drydock.

May 2022 a sub is visible.
January 2023 another sub visible.
July 2023 nothing visible, despite reports of a sub being launched.
October 2023, nothing visible but in September there was a sub looking shape visible.
February 2023 nothing visible, despite reports.
July 2024 nothing visible, but in June a sub was visible.
August 2024, a shadow/shape that might look like a sub was visible.

Other months that are not mentioned either had nothing visible or contained a sub from the previous month, without an instance where said sub left the drydock in the meantime.

Caveat: due to intermittent coverage and occasional clouds, there were instances where there's no good imagery for a period of two weeks.

Could it be that, instead of 7 launches so far there have been, in fact, 5 or fewer?

Every time there was a suspected launch it was discussed on this thread. You can go back through it and see the rationale in each case, even when not directly shown in imagery. Personally, I am reasonably confident (<70%) that this latest boat is #8, but of course YMMV.