09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Totoro]

Just checked out monthly available images of Huludao via sentinel hub, from 2022 to today.

I must say I did not see that many instances a sub or something like a sub appearing in the drydock.

May 2022 a sub is visible.
January 2023 another sub visible.
July 2023 nothing visible, despite reports of a sub being launched.
October 2023, nothing visible but in September there was a sub looking shape visible.
February 2023 nothing visible, despite reports.
July 2024 nothing visible, but in June a sub was visible.
August 2024, a shadow/shape that might look like a sub was visible.

Other months that are not mentioned either had nothing visible or contained a sub from the previous month, without an instance where said sub left the drydock in the meantime.

Caveat: due to intermittent coverage and occasional clouds, there were instances where there's no good imagery for a period of two weeks.

Could it be that, instead of 7 launches so far there have been, in fact, 5 or fewer?

 

[Blitzo]

Just checked out monthly available images of Huludao via sentinel hub, from 2022 to today.

I must say I did not see that many instances a sub or something like a sub appearing in the drydock.

May 2022 a sub is visible.
January 2023 another sub visible.
July 2023 nothing visible, despite reports of a sub being launched.
October 2023, nothing visible but in September there was a sub looking shape visible.
February 2023 nothing visible, despite reports.
July 2024 nothing visible, but in June a sub was visible.
August 2024, a shadow/shape that might look like a sub was visible.

Other months that are not mentioned either had nothing visible or contained a sub from the previous month, without an instance where said sub left the drydock in the meantime.

Caveat: due to intermittent coverage and occasional clouds, there were instances where there's no good imagery for a period of two weeks.

Could it be that, instead of 7 launches so far there have been, in fact, 5 or fewer?

The number of launches could be "anything" considering how many poor quality images (i.e.: only sentinel hub or equivalent quality) images we have, and how few good quality images we have.

In theory, even the good quality images of the launches for all we know could be depicting the same submarine (unlikely, but possible).


Ultimately it's all just estimates, so there's no particular reason to try to disprove it, all we have are just a confidence interval.

 

[snake65]

I must say I did not see that many instances a sub or something like a sub appearing in the drydock.
Could it be that, instead of 7 launches so far there have been, in fact, 5 or fewer?

You also have to consider that the new subs are not staying submerged and should appear at sub bases for trials/induction, as the sub will stay in Huludao only for builders trials. Do we have a visual confirmation of more SSNs visible in Huludao and sub bases?

 

[Maikeru]

Just checked out monthly available images of Huludao via sentinel hub, from 2022 to today.

I must say I did not see that many instances a sub or something like a sub appearing in the drydock.

May 2022 a sub is visible.
January 2023 another sub visible.
July 2023 nothing visible, despite reports of a sub being launched.
October 2023, nothing visible but in September there was a sub looking shape visible.
February 2023 nothing visible, despite reports.
July 2024 nothing visible, but in June a sub was visible.
August 2024, a shadow/shape that might look like a sub was visible.

Other months that are not mentioned either had nothing visible or contained a sub from the previous month, without an instance where said sub left the drydock in the meantime.

Caveat: due to intermittent coverage and occasional clouds, there were instances where there's no good imagery for a period of two weeks.

Could it be that, instead of 7 launches so far there have been, in fact, 5 or fewer?

Every time there was a suspected launch it was discussed on this thread. You can go back through it and see the rationale in each case, even when not directly shown in imagery. Personally, I am reasonably confident (<70%) that this latest boat is #8, but of course YMMV.

 

[Maikeru]

CMPR 2024 states 4 x 093B launched between May 2022 and January 2023 (sic). If this is not a typo, then that's 2 more than we thought. If it is a typo and they meant January 2024, it's 1 less than we thought, albeit one of the 2023 launches was inferred only and not directly seen. I think we've seen 3 this year.

CMPR does not mention "041" but does state more 094 derivatives are under construction at page 104:

"The PRC continued to construct additional JIN class SSBNs. It is unclear whether continued JIN class SSBN production is the result of delays in the development of the PRC’s next generation Type 096 SSBN or an effort to accelerate its sea-based nuclear capability as Xi has directed."

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

CMPR 2024 states 4 x 093B launched between May 2022 and January 2023 (sic). If this is not a typo, then that's 2 more than we thought. If it is a typo and they meant January 2024, it's 1 less than we thought, albeit one of the 2023 launches was inferred only and not directly seen. I think we've seen 3 this year.

Not exactly?

Here's the rectified table of the 093B's launches from

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, as of early-September 2024:

Unit No.	Launch Month	Interval between Launches (in Months)
01	May 2022	N/A, 1st unit of the class
02	January 2023	7.5
03	July 2023	5.5
04	October 2023	3.5
05	February 2024	4
06	July 2024	4
07	August 2024	1 - 1.5

There's one possible, final 093B SSN of the current batch launched in late-November 2024. Which means, we might've actually seen 4 launches this year.

 

[sunnymaxi]

"The PRC continued to construct additional JIN class SSBNs. It is unclear whether continued JIN class SSBN production is the result of delays in the development of the PRC’s next generation Type 096 SSBN or an effort to accelerate its sea-based nuclear capability as Xi has directed."

Type 096 expected to enter in service in late 2020's or early 2030's and PLAN will operate both SSBNs by that time as per the report..