The War in the Ukraine

[memfisa]

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Russian artillery strikes on Ukrainian mechanized column near Soledar sometime during the battle. That's some extremely accurate hits. I wonder if the Russians were using guided artillery shells?

I think it's SPBE which is an anti armour top attack submunition delivered via bomb or rocket, maybe artillery too? The submunition once dispensed has a radar which locates a vehicle target and propels itself into the roof of the target with a rocket, and delivers a shaped charge into the noggin.

I think it is due to 1) what appears to be a rocket plume 2) they're all top attack

Standard Krasnopol don't leave 20 feet of rocket smoke right to the target, what else could it be

These, if this is what they are, they are going to turn Leopards into scrap metal faster than jihadists did with their sandals. Nevermind the helicopters

 

[memfisa]

Frankly, because they can't. There isn't any great mystery here, the answer to every question of the type "why isn't Russia doing x, y, and z?" is because it can't.

Why isn't Russia destroying the power plants? It can't. Why isn't Russia destroying the bridges? It can't.

If they could, they would.

One well aimed Iskander could knock out a power plant for months or years. You can bet if the Russians wanted to destroy the generation capacity they would have.

Suggesting they don't because they can't is just rediculous

 

[Topazchen]

One well aimed Iskander could knock out a power plant for months or years. You can bet if the Russians wanted to destroy the generation capacity they would have.

Suggesting they don't because they can't is just rediculous

He was being sarcastic

 

[Phead128]

It still a question what are those forces build up in Belarus and apparently Belgorod doing. I'm still thinking taking Sumy and Kharkov are still on the table but who knows.

We don't know what NATO movements in Poland, Baltic states. Russian reinforcements in Belarus could be countering NATO reinforcements in Poland and Baltics, sending a signal to not play tricks against Belarus territory, not necessarily attack Ukraine again from Belarus territory. Also, the element of surprise is completely gone with a Belarus 2.0 springboard, and would only serve to elongate and strain the logistics supply line even further. Russia should just concentrated their forces against a dot, rather than disperse and dilute themselves again.

The video offers this graph.

I don't know whether or not this graph is accurate.

I think Ukraine has 1 million mobilized, whereas Russia began with 200K, lost +100-150K due to expired contracts, then mobilized 300K, so Russia has ~400K-500K total... (not including Russia's announcement of expanding Russian military to 1.5 million, up from 1 million).

Suggesting they don't because they can't is just rediculous

Weren't you the one who suggested that mobolization is impossible because it's economic and political suicidal for Putin? Really, you shouldn't be one gatekeeping ridiculous suggestions.

Seriously people, why would the Russians resort to a mobilization of its population when it's doing just fine using wagner and locals who actually want autonomy enough they risk their lives for it, to do the dirty work supported by Russian professional forces?

People need to stop dreaming that the Russians are desperate to pull all stops and go full blast with tanks into javelins and aircraft into manpads and hidden SPAAGS with full around the clock instantaneous nato ISR support from rivet joints and awacs

Please for my own sanity stop talking about this mythical economic and political suicide that's not going to happen. PLEASE

Instead let's relish the fact that this will likely go on at the current pace for a long time and we can trash talk each side during the whole episode.

 

[SolarWarden]

I don't know if this is true but strategically speaking this should have been done at the beginning when Ukraine was at its weakest.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615220722586226688

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615220726893805568

Lets play this is true and not a Russian fake out to keep Ukrainian forces North instead of the eastern front... Will this trigger Poland to step in? Would Poland consider this a severe threat to its national security that an invasion is taking place a few kilometers from its border?

Personally I don't think Russia has the forces for such an operation but that hasn't stopped them from making dumb decisions like invading a country with only 200k troops.

 

[Lokos]

I don't know if this is true but strategically speaking this should have been done at the beginning when Ukraine was at its weakest.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615220722586226688

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615220726893805568

Lets play this is true and not a Russian fake out to keep Ukrainian forces North instead of the eastern front... Will this trigger Poland to step in? Would Poland consider this a severe threat to its national security that an invasion is taking place a few kilometers from its border?

Personally I don't think Russia has the forces for such an operation but that hasn't stopped them from making dumb decisions like invading a country with only 200k troops.

At this point, it's anyone's guess. It makes no sense to attempt this now and not on day 1. Then again it also makes no sense to keep that much hardware and manpower away from the fight in the east.

Nothing about this war makes sense to me.
Maybe we'll know more tomorrow. Something circulating around Reddit saying there will be an announcement to signal the end to special operations.

 

[SolarWarden]

Shhh. Just quietly sending a crap load of US armored vehicles and tanks to Eastern Poland.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615345838364016640

 

[memfisa]

All the bridges, everywhere, so in Ukraine, Russia or Hungary too, are over-engineered with safety margins at least 1,5-2x as necesarry. So, if some bridge is limited for say 40 t, that means that it will not collapse without 60-70 t at least. I once crossed over a 5 t-limit bridge with a 15 t bus- and? Nothing happened.

We used to have a very large mall in my hometown, it had a rooftop parking. On the ramps to get up there used to be warning signs telling of a 2 ton limit for vehicles on the roof.

Well, in Northern Canadian climate we get snow lots of it. They used to clear the snow for decades on this roof with full sized front end loaders and laden dump trucks filled with salt spreading there to keep ice melted.

None of these machines ever fell into the mall, until one day the roof collapsed after a small SUV passed over a certain damaged area, in the middle of summer on a Sunday and two women were crushed to death by concrete slabs.

You may not collapse a structure overloading it but you are indeed inflicting structural damage and severe stress by applying loads it was not designed for. Basically you are playing a crap shoot

 

[FriedButter]

Rumour that the special military operation will end tomorrow. Maybe formal declaration of war is on the cards?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615391718802862080

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615393500844916758

 

[2handedswordsman]

Shhh. Just quietly sending a crap load of US armored vehicles and tanks to Eastern Poland.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615345838364016640

Yes. This is the low intensive ww3. Every major or minor player is responsible for its stance between the two sides. But it's being quietly, by the rules, and cost effective. lol