Yeah you are right, Russia can easily win this war if they really want to. Putin is just playing around to exhaust Ukraine and the West. Russia is not really taking this war seriously, they just want to drag it out. They are reserving their strength for later use against the US/West if needed. .Russia is not militarily strong enough is a very different situation from that Russia purposefully doesn't use its entire capabilities, because it doesn't need them, in order to win in the long run, and they are better withheld for its inner economic and socio-political stability, and in case NATO invades, these are two different things.
Reality is not black and white like in fiction, this is the real world. Only simple-minded individuals measure gains in the territory as only military objectives, in the war of attrition, logistical numbers and formulas are way more important, for example, who has bigger military-industrial production, what are the long-term trends in that area, long-term demographic changes in both quantity and quality, of ordinary citizens and military personnel available, etc.
So if Russia analyzes and sees that they will certainly win on some longer timeframe even if they don't need to wreck their economy and society, right away, they are going to do just that, they are a real country thinking long term. They are looking at the future, Ukraine is done eventually, and they are looking to preserve as many resources for the fight against the West of the 21st century. That's what every smart leader would've also done if they were in Putin's place.
Russia is not like an inefficient Frankenstein of a country like the US where Biden simply could wreck their entire strategic oil reserves, and the long-term economic prospects just to win some elections that are happening every two years. I guess, if Biden was on Putin's pace, he would've gone all out being wasteful and destructive in the process as much as possible, whereas Putin knows that he will always be in power, and thinks about what's best for Russian interests for decades ahead - not for some short term, personal rhetorical points or bragging rights - and Russians seemingly appreciate that approach.
That long-term strategic outlook is exactly why the Russian economy is growing faster than all countries in G7, their oil and budget revenues are on pre-war levels, and their deficits and debt ratios falling even though they are at war (unlike in the peace-time West), whereas 30% of the population support leaders in the West, on average, Putin has an 80-90% rating.
They have way less civil protests, mass riots, political crises, and divisions than the 'peaceful' West, despite Russia being in the war. So who has longer chances for survival and thriving as a civilization then? Russia in a war is more stable than the West and will outlive them with almost certainty if this continues. Look at the industrial differences and inefficiency of it in the West. The West still hasn't started to experience true inner rot that is about to come on every level. Who is going to outlast whom in this 'stalemate'?
So, essentially, Russian citizens don't even feel this war, except for a few terrorist attacks, look at the sad and tragic situation in Ukraine, 20% of territory lost, TFR is decimated, 10 million left, the demographic pyramid is screwed on every level, and no infrastructure, no economy, and foreign donations just to pay pensions and other social expenditures, educational results wrecked, collateralized debt to Western vampires (public assets) risen tremendously, to fund the war, etc. Who exactly did 'fail' between the two of them then?
That is a territory with ZERO possibility of recovering and prospering ever again 100%, outside of some fantastic and science fiction scenarios perhaps, however, their favorite 'heroic' Ukraine is still "winning" in the eyes of stupid Westoids. Who cares about statistics, and hundreds of thousands dead, when we have some Telegram post of some Russian plane being destroyed, that is that low IQ kind of line of their 'thought'.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Yeah you are right, Russia can easily win this war if they really want to. Putin is just playing around to exhaust Ukraine and the West. Russia is not really taking this war seriously, they just want to drag it out. They are reserving their strength for later use against the US/West if needed. .
Nearly everyone is a "match" for the US nowadays, at least regionally, close to their shores, as seen in the Red Sea by Yemen.
Dude, Russia is supposed to be a military superpower with the 2nd most powerful military on earth(yes many western and Eastern experts and publications used to put Russia's military power even above that of China. Lol ) so they shouldn't even be sweating that hard in defeating a lesser power like Ukraine( WHO SHARES A FLAT LAND BORDER WITH RUSSIA, this is not even an expeditionary war like the one the US often fights around the world). Obviously Ukraine is the underdog BY FAR and they are the ones on the defensive since they are the one's whose territory is being invaded by a much larger/powerful military superpower by some extent. You expected Ukraine to defeat Russia in the first place? There should be nothing surprising for anybody if Russia had crushed Ukraine like everyone or most people expected them to do, the surprise is that not only were they unable to do so but they were even pushed back at some point and they are still bogged down in Ukraine after over 2 years now with no victory in sight(plus this is a conventional war between 2 armies not even a guerilla type of war which is more complex). Of course Ukraine whose territory is being invaded and fought over will suffer far more material and economic damage since its on their home soil the invading army is fighting on and they are thee are the weaker side. So I don't understand why you are using that as some sort of victory for Russia?
Seriously, I understand that some of you guys are pro Russian fans, but that doesn't means can't even recognise this obvious facts? I'm just making an observation not like I have anything against Russia or Ukraine..
For your points about Russia being in a far better social/political situation compared to the West and Russia not having much riots/protests etc. I don't even know how to address that point.
Of course Russia's political system is different dude. The country is run by a one man system..in short the system itself is Putin. Little to nobody can dare challenge him and go unpunished without repercussions. I'm not saying their system is wrong or whatever, since they can adopt the system they want it's up to them not our call. I'm just saying Russias system is different from most Western countries who have a multi party democratic system with constant change of government/leadership through public votes and where the system actually encourages the leader/ruling party being challenged/contradicted and contested with very strong institutions( Congress, Parliament, independent judiciary etc) which means leaders/authorities don't think losing power or being replaced is the end of the world. So of course social reality will be different from Russia. It's no wonder you see many wealthy and even middle class Russians have emigrated to the West in large numbers. If the West system and reality was so bad and collapsing they won't be going there, don't you think? In fact Westerners will be the ones trying to emigrate to Russia, NO?
Anyway, each system has its own benefits and faults. Just that from what we have seen so far most people still prefer living in the system we have in the West than Russia's I guess.
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You generally appear logical, however, you need to look at this from a different perspective entirely.
Weren't people like you always boasting about how you (NATO) have 40 times larger nominal GDP than Russia, and how they are a joke economically or something?
So, why haven't you now curb-stomped Russia with economic sanctions and your military-industrial shipments to Ukraine?
Remember, this is not only the US (addressing that part of military rankings), but the entire NATO/Western countries, including Japan (7) and SK (5).
The UK is for example 6, Italy 10, France 11. If you take the 2024 GFP rankings (although I don't agree with them).
And don't say how NATO isn't involved in the war to a big extent already, they are, in both the strategy, equipment, intelligence, psyop, and increasingly even boots on the ground.
I don't think that any Western quite "liberal" soldier, from France or the UK, for example, would've performed in this war better than the entire male population of the Ukraine who is fighting Russia as cannon fodders in massive numbers for ideology.
So, the only thing NATO didn't do against Russia (mass mobilization from the member state), is already taken care of by Ukrainians,
So essentially, NATO is already fully involved against Russia in all areas that could make a difference.
Also, there is no way that NATO member states would even AGREE to mass mobilize their own military forces against Russia, in an event like this one now, when Russia didn't attack them, or put aside larger percentages of their budgets for that war not affecting them.
So, NATO is already doing everything it COULD against Russia, not that they are withholding something.
You say that everyone said how Russia would quickly defeat Ukraine but weren't also the people like you the ones who said that you have financial 'nuclear bombs' against Russia, how you would turn 'rubles to rubbles', etc? You forgot about that?
Yes, I understand that the Western system and the Russian system are very different, I'm not an idiot.
I'm just asserting that the Russian system is way superior to fight such prolonged, global 'wars of attrition'.
The last bolder part I totally disagree with. Way more countries and a way larger percentage of the entire human population live in a system much closer to the Russian current system than to the Western-style liberal democracy, and the gap is expanding with time.
Generally, there has been studies that show such countries rate their system way higher than liberal democracy in satisfaction metrics.
Also, citizens living under such Western-style systems are massively losing confidence in them, so quite the opposite.
But, that is off-topic, however, I have all of that backed up by data, so I can send you or post it all elsewhere.
That was the plan that involved large-scale political insurrection from the Ukrainian side first.
Since that didn't happen, then it turned to this present-day situation. Strategy is a fluid thing.
ODAB detonates at Ukrainian positions in Krasnogorovka.
FABs arrive at Novokalinovo.
BMD-4M with Spetznaz from the 98th VDV.
M777 burns after being shelled in the Kupyansk direction.
Spetznaz poses with destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV.
Krab gets taken out by Lancet of the 238th Brigade.
Explosion happens in Nikolaev.
Cluster bombs saturate the positions of the AFU 81st Airborne Brigade in Belgorovka.
Possible deep Russian breakthrough at Ocheretino.
BMPT Terminator at the front.
Humvee severely damaged by an FPV drone.
Lancet takes out a Ukrainian Strela-10 AD system in Yuzno-Donetsk.
A Ukrainian 2S3 Akasya SPG a victim of a Lancet.
Aircraft firing S-13 NARS rockets in Chasiv Yar. These 122mm rockets are capable of destroying reinforced concrete structures.
TOS working on Chasiv Yar.
Ukrainian Bukovel-AD EW unit gets destroyed by Russian VDV.
Ukrainian 2A65 MSTA-B howitzer gets knocked out.
This shot down Baba Yaga is interesting as it has a repeater antenna to extend the range of control for FPV drones.
Ukrainian IFV, likely loaded with personnel, gets hit by ATGM.
FAB or ODAB-1500 lands on a deployment point of Ukrainian UAV operators in Kherson across the Dniepr.
FABs arrive at Novokalinovo.
BMD-4M with Spetznaz from the 98th VDV.
M777 burns after being shelled in the Kupyansk direction.
Spetznaz poses with destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV.
Krab gets taken out by Lancet of the 238th Brigade.
Explosion happens in Nikolaev.
Cluster bombs saturate the positions of the AFU 81st Airborne Brigade in Belgorovka.
Possible deep Russian breakthrough at Ocheretino.
BMPT Terminator at the front.
Humvee severely damaged by an FPV drone.
Lancet takes out a Ukrainian Strela-10 AD system in Yuzno-Donetsk.
A Ukrainian 2S3 Akasya SPG a victim of a Lancet.
Aircraft firing S-13 NARS rockets in Chasiv Yar. These 122mm rockets are capable of destroying reinforced concrete structures.
TOS working on Chasiv Yar.
Ukrainian Bukovel-AD EW unit gets destroyed by Russian VDV.
Ukrainian 2A65 MSTA-B howitzer gets knocked out.
This shot down Baba Yaga is interesting as it has a repeater antenna to extend the range of control for FPV drones.
Ukrainian IFV, likely loaded with personnel, gets hit by ATGM.
FAB or ODAB-1500 lands on a deployment point of Ukrainian UAV operators in Kherson across the Dniepr.
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With the recent passage of the Ukranian aid bill in the US almost coinciding with the mobilization bill, I feel like Ukraine will be able to drag this out for another year or two yet. While the Russian strikes on Ukranian power infrastructure is extremely damaging on civilian life, I doubt it will severely effect military industry, not as long as Russia refrains from striking Ukrainian nuclear Power plants.
Two important western supplied equipment crucial for Ukranian success will be mid/long range air defenses and artillery shells.
Two important western supplied equipment crucial for Ukranian success will be mid/long range air defenses and artillery shells.
Clever way against wheeled vehicules, you burst their tires :
Except Putin said no such thing. Sure they put that claim in the article title. But try to find a direct quote of him saying that on the text.
There is none. You sure are easy to convince.
I am sure the Russian plans included several possible contingencies going from internal dissent in Ukraine causing their government to collapse, all the way to a possible direct conflict with NATO.
What Ukrainian military industry? It has mostly vanished after the strikes on the first year. The only thing left are artisanal workshops where people assemble drones in their houses or they try to repair tanks in garages. Their equipment is basically all imported.