The War in the Ukraine

SlothmanAllen said:

Any consensus on what the new US aid package might do for Ukraine? The Senate has scheduled a vote for Tuesday, but after it passes the senate and Biden signs it into law, I don't know how long it will take the those funds to translate into capability for the Ukrainians?

Does anybody have an idea of what exactly will be given and a timeline for delivery?

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A lot of the arms and ammo transfers are teed up ready to go into Ukraine immediately the Senate vote is passed AIUI, so maybe a couple of weeks until it has an effect on the front lines. As for the size of the effect, hard to say but cannot be good news for Russia.

Maikeru said:

A lot of the arms and ammo transfers are teed up ready to go into Ukraine immediately the Senate vote is passed AIUI, so maybe a couple of weeks until it has an effect on the front lines. As for the size of the effect, hard to say but cannot be good news for Russia.

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If they can 3d print out all the weapons and train about 100k well trained soldiers read to send them to the front lines, that may constitute to being bad news for Russia but given that creating a new army that is fully equip and ready to go takes years to accomplish if not more, I don’t think this is going to have much of an impact in the short term and in the long term, assuming Russia isn’t going to be just standing there doing nothing and maintains its consistent bombing of all military assets along with the energy grid to put increasing pressure on Ukraine as well has continuing to safe guard and strength it’s defenses, Ukraine might not have anywhere near enough time to continue this conflict, not when their is the funding and arming of Israel to worry about anyhow. This fight is an ever changing one after all

Like in terms of manpower... who's likely gonna run out of men first ? If it's Russia then i would expect them to actually begin settlement process, if Ukraine then more and more foreign troops will pour in to make up shortages of what Ukraine had to mobilize. The "avalanche of arms" coming to Ukraine needs men to serve them.

Probably next cross border raid will be manned entirely by foreign personnel.

SlothmanAllen said:

Any consensus on what the new US aid package might do for Ukraine? The Senate has scheduled a vote for Tuesday, but after it passes the senate and Biden signs it into law, I don't know how long it will take the those funds to translate into capability for the Ukrainians?

Does anybody have an idea of what exactly will be given and a timeline for delivery?

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13.8 Billlion is for equipment and ammunition for Ukraine

$11.3 Billion for continued US support

23.3 Billion for refurbishing depleted US ammunition and equipment stocks

They will likely send them more IFVs and the like. Bradleys and M113s. Ukraine has lost most of what they had.
As more PrSM missiles get manufactured this will likely enable the US to also send them more ATACMS.
As Soviet era equipment runs out NATO will have to send Ukraine increasingly more Cold War era NATO equipment. And once that runs out even modern one. They already sent to Ukraine nearly all their modern air defense systems including SAMP/T, NASAMS, and Patriot PAC-3.

SlothmanAllen said:

Any consensus on what the new US aid package might do for Ukraine? The Senate has scheduled a vote for Tuesday, but after it passes the senate and Biden signs it into law, I don't know how long it will take the those funds to translate into capability for the Ukrainians?

Does anybody have an idea of what exactly will be given and a timeline for delivery?

Click to expand...

When supply is massively constrained and inelastic, throwing more money at the problem will only create needless inflation. So Champaign corks apopping in the board rooms of American MIC companies all round. The impact on their profits will be immediate and significant, the impact on the frontlines will be delayed and disproportionately small.

plawolf said:

When supply is massively constrained and inelastic, throwing more money at the problem will only create needless inflation. So Champaign corks apopping in the board rooms of American MIC companies all round. The impact on their profits will be immediate and significant, the impact on the frontlines will be delayed and disproportionately small.

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Yeah. I am also certain those explosions in ammo producing facilities in the US and Europe have done wonders to the price of artillery ammo.

Footage of combat work in Ukraine, Russian BMP-2M, the location of the shooting is not reported. BMP-2M is a modernized version of the BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle, technical information in the video link in the comments to the video. BMP-2M of the Pskov paratroopers, supposedly breaking through to the rear of the Ukrainian army for a landing. Incredibly, the BMP-2M withstood two FPV drone attacks, an RPG attack and a cluster munition attack, as will be shown at the end of the video. Perhaps the BMP-2M had additional armor, since such an attack is difficult even for a tank to withstand. The armored vehicle commander reportedly received a slight concussion as a result of the attack.

gelgoog said:

Yeah. I am also certain those explosions in ammo producing facilities in the US and Europe have done wonders to the price of artillery ammo.

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Yes, certain they will need to reprice everything now that the price of metals are going up, thanks to, you guess it, Western sanctions on commodities and metal exports from Russia.

Stealthflanker said:

Like in terms of manpower... who's likely gonna run out of men first ? If it's Russia then i would expect them to actually begin settlement process, if Ukraine then more and more foreign troops will pour in to make up shortages of what Ukraine had to mobilize. The "avalanche of arms" coming to Ukraine needs men to serve them.

Probably next cross border raid will be manned entirely by foreign personnel.

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Yes, no amount of aid and money will return the experienced but dead soldiers back to the world of the living.


Now for news at the front.

Leopard 2A6 being towed back as trophy. Expect to see it on exhibits.


Correction on previous post. Not Iskanders but two FABs hitting the deployment concentration of the 3rd Azov Brigade.


Four FABs arrive in Novokalinovo.


Damaged Patriot launcher returned to the USA.


RBK-500 cluster bombs working on Ukrainian positions near the border.


Repost. More accessible footage (no need for Telegram login) of the Iskander-Tornado S strikes that took out a MiG-29 and S-300 system. Ukrainians allege X-31P was used on S-300 radars.


Pelican phase array radar gets taken out by a Russian missile this time an X-35 antiship missile.


MoD confirms capture of Bogdanovka by the 200th Guards Brigade.


Daily FABing in Kherson.


FAB strikes as seen from the ground.


Tor takes out a Ukrainian UAV.


Bombing on Chasiv Yar.


Arrivals in Odessa.


Compilation of recent Lancet attacks on Ukrainian tanks and SPGs on the right side of the Dniepr.


Tyulpans bombarding Krasnogorovka with their 240mm mortar shells.


FABs hitting Urozhayne again.


Ukrainian ammo depot hit in Kherson, also destroying two SPGs.


BREM driver mechanic gets medal for rescuing six comrades under heavy fire.


MSTA-B hits targets with Krasnopol shells.


Russian artillery takes out a hidden M777.


FAB or laser guided KAB hits a concentration of Ukrainian forces in the Avdeyevka sector.


Ukrainian draft dodgers dress up in military camouflage to confuse patrols as they escape through the border.


Baba Yaga taken out with a sniper shot.


Attempt of rotation by Ukrainian reserves greeted with Grad saturation fire. By the Mad Dogs special unit.


Kalashnikov ZALA shows off SKAT 350M drone in an exhibit. This is the same as the Supercam S-350. Also shows off the Colosseum-RU which looks to be the Russian equivalent to the Baba Yaga.


BMP-2M with Berezhok combat module with the Pskov paratroopers.

gelgoog said:

Yeah. I am also certain those explosions in ammo producing facilities in the US and Europe have done wonders to the price of artillery ammo.

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The only way the US could realistically increase supply of arms and ammo to Ukraine quickly is if it released some of its own stocks. The timing of this announcement is very obvious that just such a decision was made following the apparent simmering down of the threat of a direct Israel-Iran war in the ME.

It would be amusingly plausible if Russia and Iran started to coordinate and do an escalation tag team against America. So I would not rule out things suddenly heating up in the ME against just as refresh significant US arms supplies reach Ukraine and vice versa if the US surges forces to the ME. China and NK might also join the party and help to run the US ragged all over the globe.