The War in the Ukraine

Rumors about a possible new Russian offensive in Kharkiv/Sumy. It is reported that the Russians are urgently transferring all their reserves to the border areas of Sumy and Kharkov regions. Even Chernigov could be targeted by the Russians in a future offensive that, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, could begin as early as May or early June.

Tam said:

Knocking out electricity will affect these production centers. So what will the Ukrainians do? Use portable generators. But these will reveal themselves through their heat signatures. Then there's the trail of fuel trucks.

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I think most of them are using big LFP power banks, less heat and no fuel trucks
All those Chinese power bank companies set up Ukrainian distribution, Ecoflow, Bluletti, Jackery, etc.
Since they are mostly assembly workshops, they need mostly to just keep the lights and 3D printers on.

Sinnavuuty said:

Mike Johnson explained that up to 80% of US military aid to Ukraine corresponds to the replenishment of US weapons and ammunition stocks, that is, of the US$61 billion package, close to US$49 billion will go directly to the defense industry of the USA, boosting the economy and creating jobs.

Taking into account the fact that, in fact, between 13 billion and 23 billion dollars in funding will actually reach Ukraine in general and the Armed Forces of Ukraine in particular, in the form of military equipment, equipment and ammunition, from one way or another.

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This is just pure copium. If Russia spends money on their MIC then, according to Western propaganda, Putin is taking that out from roads, hospitals, and schools which could have been built in Russia instead. But if the US spends money on its MIC then we are supposed to believe this is good for the US economy.

The US already spent like 5.8 trillion dollars on the GWoT. It was like 2.3 trillion on Afghanistan alone. I wouldn't be surprised if the War on Ukraine cost another trillion or more. If this package is approved, which it likely will, then the US will have spent like 200 billion dollars in two years. The costs will only increase when they start sending the F-16s in. A fighter aircraft costs like 10x the price of a tank.

Michael90 said:

It's no wonder you see many wealthy and even middle class Russians have emigrated to the West in large numbers. If the West system and reality was so bad and collapsing they won't be going there, don't you think? In fact Westerners will be the ones trying to emigrate to Russia, NO?
Anyway, each system has its own benefits and faults. Just that from what we have seen so far most people still prefer living in the system we have in the West than Russia's I guess.

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Just like millions of Indian Hindus (who hate Muslims) have emigrated to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UEA to earn money in stronger currency.

Are medieval Muslim absolute monarchies a better system than the Western liberal democracy so beloved in India?

The vast majority of immigrants in the world are just poor people who want to earn dollars serving as cleaners or bartenders in inflated service economies or mediocre liberals unable to prosper in their own country and licking the boots of Western countries.

This is just the modern form of ancient serfdom. No comparisons between systems. There is nothing new under the sun.

gelgoog said:

This is just pure copium. If Russia spends money on their MIC then, according to Western propaganda, Putin is taking that out from roads, hospitals, and schools which could have been built in Russia instead. But if the US spends money on its MIC then we are supposed to believe this is good for the US economy.

The US already spent like 5.8 trillion dollars on the GWoT. It was like 2.3 trillion on Afghanistan alone. I wouldn't be surprised if the War on Ukraine cost another trillion or more. If this package is approved, which it likely will, then the US will have spent like 200 billion dollars in two years. The costs will only increase when they start sending the F-16s in. A fighter aircraft costs like 10x the price of a tank.

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Send an explanatory letter to Mike Johnson warning him that what he said is copyium, because that's what he said and not me.

gelgoog said:

This is just pure copium. If Russia spends money on their MIC then, according to Western propaganda, Putin is taking that out from roads, hospitals, and schools which could have been built in Russia instead. But if the US spends money on its MIC then we are supposed to believe this is good for the US economy.

The US already spent like 5.8 trillion dollars on the GWoT. It was like 2.3 trillion on Afghanistan alone. I wouldn't be surprised if the War on Ukraine cost another trillion or more. If this package is approved, which it likely will, then the US will have spent like 200 billion dollars in two years. The costs will only increase when they start sending the F-16s in. A fighter aircraft costs like 10x the price of a tank.

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I mean... that's both correct.

Government expenditure does tend to come at the cost of other economic opportunities. Of course we both know that this money wouldn't have been spent on hospitals anyway... so it's a moot point.

And yeah, military spending does benefit the economy. Though I suspect military spending benefitted Russia's economy far more than US's.

Sinnavuuty said:

Rumors about a possible new Russian offensive in Kharkiv/Sumy. It is reported that the Russians are urgently transferring all their reserves to the border areas of Sumy and Kharkov regions. Even Chernigov could be targeted by the Russians in a future offensive that, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, could begin as early as May or early June.

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I'm really skeptical about all of this. I mean... U.S. and UK surely would've said something about a massive concentration of forces on the Kharkiv direction, or let the Ukrainians know. Perhaps the information space is just a lot less clear these days, but massive redeployments and preparations surely would've been noticed even by OSINT.

As far as I can tell, Ukraine's preparations for a Kharkiv offensive look half-hearted at best, but perhaps they don't think it's that big of a threat. On the Kupyansk direction ~6 months ago Ukraine also evacuated the area and held off the Russians just fine with what existing defenses were already there. There were redeployments, but I can't recall anything on a major scale.

supersnoop said:

I think most of them are using big LFP power banks, less heat and no fuel trucks
All those Chinese power bank companies set up Ukrainian distribution, Ecoflow, Bluletti, Jackery, etc.
Since they are mostly assembly workshops, they need mostly to just keep the lights and 3D printers on.

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But where is the electricity coming from to charge up those power banks? Batteries are just storage devices for electricity generated by other means, so if they don't have access to a functioning power grid, then the electricity is almost certainly coming from generators of some sort.

sheogorath said:

True, but how often do Russians use wheeled vehicles compared to tracked ones in most of their recent attacks?.

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From what I have seen, the Russians have been using ATV's and motorcycles for reconaissance, evacuations, harrassment, and etc. Plus they use trucks for MLRS's, towed artillery, and logistics. So whrelws vehicles have been used in those areas. They don't necessarily have to use drones only for assaults.

sheogorath said:

Also mud could make them ineffective as they would sink into the mud under the pressure instead of puncturing the tyre.

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That is true too, but not all areas have mud, in particular cleared roads.

Seems the Kommuna is OK?

sheogorath said:

Seems the Kommuna is OK?

View attachment 128500

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A lot of cranes and rigging on that ship to catch incoming cruise missile without giving a critical blow to the ship even when hit. Don't know why they let it there... would empty Sevastopol of any valuable ships. Maybe they use them like baits... better to get ships that don't influence the outcome hit by these cruise missiles than troops concentrations and vehicules depots ?