Which countries have the best land/positioning?

Thesisus said:

Would you guys change your views, given the recent developments of the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TTP Agreement). This is basically a multilateral free trade agreement, which started out very small, with only Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore in 2005. But by 2011, it has turned or being turned into a major free trade agreement, with the US, Japan, Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam all having expressed a wish to join and are now negotiating, and the US have requested Korea to join the TPP as well.

Many analysts are commenting that the US is actually using this piece of agreement as a way to "come back to Asia" and to a certain extent, provide a way to contain China economically. If this agreement does happen, together with the renewed military alliance between the US and Australia, it does seem to put China in a dire position.

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If we consider the geographical facto one of the reason why UNASUR is being created is to protect the South American resources from none South American power.

If you can understand the videos, they say South America is rich in resources, the first video talks about the need to create a common currency and passport for all south americans.

Free trade agreements do not necesarilly lead to economic integration, for that to happen you need a customs Union, a common currency and later political union.

South America in fact is currently surveying US forces in the continent not any more as individual nations but as UNASUR.


NAFTA is a little bit different, the US and Canada do not desire a merge with Mexico, the main reason is Economic, but cultural factors also play a role.
Central America also is working on a model of integration


The main obstacle for the integration, for the Angloamerican nations is the economic differences between them and Mexico and central America.

The NAFTA model of integration is at this moment purely economic, the free movement of goods is very limited, in fact this Octuber the first Mexican trucks were allowed to transport goods into the US directly from Mexico.



But free movement of people still is not possible, due to cultural differences between these former colonies of England and Spain have.

Will the free movement of goods happen? well already started by allowing Mexican trucks transporting goods into the US but how far this will go, only time will tell.


Why the US desires a union with Canada? basicly resources, by having a more federal organization American interest in Canada will be protected.

However the US desires free trade with Mexico as long as its economic interests allow it to sell its goods and manufacture at cheaper prices.

Will Mexico accept this also time will tell but already Mexico has won a battle by having its trucks into the US.

Geography is a struggle for resources, and NAFTA was created to ensure the US with canadian resources and markets, and Mexican cheap labour and Markets.

However not everything is one sided, Mexican companies are starting to make inroads into the US, and the economic and cultural integration sooner or later will happen but this will be highly dependant on Mexico and central america raising the living standards and gaining access to the US markets.

Renewing wedding vows is no big deal. Around a decade ago there was talk of an Asian economic front. To counter there was all this talk about the Americas joining together that would be more powerful. Where's that at? If it were so easy to assemble economic blocs, why hasn't it been done already? Yeah and I wouldn't count on it since the US is already leaning towards protectionism. It's not like most of these countries mentioned aren't going to be export dependent. It just means now no trade barriers the US can put up. Great for all these samller countries. Not for the US.

AssassinsMace said:

Renewing wedding vows is no big deal. Around a decade ago there was talk of an Asian economic front. To counter there was all this talk about the Americas joining together that would be more powerful. Where's that at? If it were so easy to assemble economic blocs, why hasn't it been done already? Yeah and I wouldn't count on it since the US is already leaning towards protectionism. It's not like most of these countries mentioned aren't going to be export dependent. It just means now no trade barriers the US can put up. Great for all these samller countries. Not for the US.

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The blocks start by free trade agreements and evolve as a customs Union and later as a common market, after this comes a common currency and much later a political Union.

What we are seeing in Europe is the fact that Greece, will simply lose its soverignity and become more directly ruled by the EU.

In the case of South America, the process is more political than economical at this moment, so it will take time a time frame of 30-40 years.
NAFTA has started already a common market, by allowing Mexican trucks this October into the US and Canada means free goods movility is becoming a reality.

Freedom of movement for people and jobs at this moment does not exist, niether common currency.
The dollar is the facto common currency in NAFTA, how long it will remain like that will depend in the dollar`s ability to remain the world`s currency, if it fails, it will push the USA to creates its own currency zone to allow a more competitive instance in front of the cheaper Mexican and Central american goods.

By allowing Mexican trucks into the USA, the american trucks are in disadvantage, wages are lower in Mexico, the US needs exports, so strengthening the Mexican peso will be a need.

China and Europe are engage in a currency war with the US, the Chinese are keeping it too low the Europeans to high, the US needs exports, China is quiet protectionist and Europe will do the same, the US will need a market for its goods, Canada and Mexico are the main export destinations to US goods, and in order to increase competitiveness they will requiere a dollar with the same parity with the canadian and much later some strength of the Mexican peso as Mexico becomes more industrilized to assure Mexicans can buy US goods.
Leaving Central America as the next cheap labour pool to be tapped in NAFTA.

will NAFTA have a common currency well time will tell, but already goods are flowing with freedom and this will continue.

Thank you. ^^^

I have a friend that is a topredo tech at raython in Washington state.

Thesisus said:

Would you guys change your views, given the recent developments of the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TTP Agreement). This is basically a multilateral free trade agreement, which started out very small, with only Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore in 2005. But by 2011, it has turned or being turned into a major free trade agreement, with the US, Japan, Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam all having expressed a wish to join and are now negotiating, and the US have requested Korea to join the TPP as well.

Many analysts are commenting that the US is actually using this piece of agreement as a way to "come back to Asia" and to a certain extent, provide a way to contain China economically. If this agreement does happen, together with the renewed military alliance between the US and Australia, it does seem to put China in a dire position.

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How would they "economically contain" China?

solarz said:

How would they "economically contain" China?

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there is one way always to remain on top, and that is have the best technology and be able to sell it.

The West is not completly interested in stopping China`s industrialization, in fact they want to be part of that


Most car made in China are made by foreign brands

While it should be logical then that goods “made in China” should be the least expensive for consumers in China, as you can tell from the table set forth at the beginning of the article, this is not the case at all. You can get a pair of Levi's jeans for 15 to 30 USD (100 -200 RMB) in a discount store in the U.S., and yet you'd have to pay at least 700 RMB for the same pair of jeans in China. Exported goods were sold for a third or a fourth of the retail price in China overseas. Why is this case?

1) A few foreign brands are monopolizing the Chinese market

China may be the largest manufacturer in the world, but the brands and products being manufactured are owned by foreign companies, and these companies set the market prices, not the manufacturer. And also there is a healthy competition in the overseas markets for foreign brands and this is lacking in the Chinese market. When there is a monopoly, the prices are inevitably higher for lack of competition. And high import tariffs, huge cost and effort to build and nurture a market from the ground up, coupled with a lack of anti-trust regulations in place, are all the reasons making it hard for more foreign brands to enter the Chinese market.



however car production reflects the potentialities of China
This March, General Motors sold more cars in China than in the U.S.. Chinese domestic sales for General Motors and its joint ventures in China jumped 66.9 percent in 2009 to a record 1,826,424 vehicles. GM China holds an estimated market share of 13.4 percent and the company predicts sales in 2010 could top 2 million. Meanwhile, Ford Motor Company's joint ventures and wholly owned entities in China delivered record sales of 440,619 vehicles in 2009, an increase of 44 percent from 2008



You can also expect to see inexpensive, wholly domestic Chinese brands like BYD and Geely imported to the U.S. soon. But first, the cars need some tinkering. “They’re not yet up to our safety standards,” says Shields. “But it’s certainly the case that the Chinese will be selling cars in the U.S. in a few years.”






Chevy Sail been hit in China.
J.D. Power reports China’s domestic brands controlled 34% of the passenger-vehicle market last year, up from 31% in 2009, and is forecasting about 40% for them in 2020.



this will worry foreign brands

But a decline in market share does not mean lost volume. For example, Volkswagen’s share of the passenger-car market has shrunk from 49% in 2000 to 13% in 2010, yet the company is doing very well in China, with sales last year of 1.95 million units in joint ventures with SAIC and FAW.”



however

For most OEMs in China, however, exports have been relatively small, down from a peak of 614,000 units in 2007 to 567,000 units last year. The main destinations: Algeria, Bangladesh, Brazil, Chile, Egypt, Russia, Syria and Vietnam.

“Chinese vehicles as a whole have a bad reputation in export markets for their poor quality,” Marukawa says.

He feels the periodic announcements by Chinese auto makers of plans to export to the U.S. and Europe “are made in order to let Chinese consumers think these cars are acceptable even in developed countries.”

,,




In contrast, Chinese brands' market share was only 30.5%. And, only F3 and Charade managed to get
into the top ten. However, although the market share of the Chinese brands is low, their strong sense of
individuality is reminiscent of the Japanese brands sold during the era of high economic growth. While
automobile brands today are so similar as to make differentiation nearly impossible, China's own brands
are very much like the Japanese cars of the 1960's, in that they are designed with a sense of freedom and
daring.



So in few words the West only can containg China by having better technology and creating coommon markets where their own goods can compete on equal grounds with undervalued chinese goods.

Free trade agreements are only to gain access for the US on a more adventagious way

Having more advanced technology doesn't mean you will be always on top or ahead. Take a look at Solyndra. They weren't making the average solar panel. It was new technology. Yet they still couldn't compete against the less expensive old tech.

AssassinsMace said:

Having more advanced technology doesn't mean you will be always on top or ahead. Take a look at Solyndra. They weren't making the average solar panel. It was new technology. Yet they still couldn't compete against the less expensive old tech.

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Exactly and he give automobile industry as example from 0% percent of market in 1980 China share has gone up year after year and so do the quality.

They decide to open the market for Foreign car in order to induce the domestic car to improve the quality and compete with the foreign car head on. Also politically it prevent trade barrier as those auto giant become Allies

So far they seem to succeed . China is not interested in foreign market yet because they still have problem meeting the domestic requirement! .

Chinese car industry is completely independent . They are not hostage to foreign components. In fact more and more Auto giant are building research and development center in China and localized their component manufacturing in China

Last year China produce 10 million car the largest in the world .Now how many did Russia produced last year?

AssassinsMace said:

Having more advanced technology doesn't mean you will be always on top or ahead. Take a look at Solyndra. They weren't making the average solar panel. It was new technology. Yet they still couldn't compete against the less expensive old tech.

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China won`t be stop niether contained, China already has the basic technologies to develop anything, from cars, computers, satellites or airplanes.

China is able to make from tractors, refrigerators and many goods, it is impossible to stop China to move ahead, but so is India, Russia, Brazil,the US or Europe.

Russia made a customs Union with Belarus and Khazakhastan to gather 25 million people for the Russian brands, they are waiting Ukraine to join the customs Union in 2012, that will make a common market of 200 million people.


High tech always give the advantage, the problem for the West is most of the technologies they developed in the 20th century have been mastered by Russia, India, Brazil and China.

In 2011 there is not real edge any more for the west, the advantage they have is now very small.

take this example cars have been around since the early 20th century, even electric cars are not new for example Brazil was making electric cars in the 1970s, this is the Gurgel designed in Brazil

[video=youtube;lQ0DZgmPrfY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQ0DZgmPrfY[/video]

So what the west is trying to do is simply protect its markets.

The US sell more to Canada or Mexico because there is too much production manufactue and design relation


To put you an Example, the current MD500 helicopter fuselages are build in Mexico and then exported to the US, so many mexican exports are in reality products that later will be exported by the USA.

what gains Mexico? well they get jobs and trained engineers and the US get Helicopters much much cheaper able to compete with Indian or Russian helicopter manufacturers

By China creating its own brands they are breaking that system and moving ahead to a different economic dynamics, but see China`s imports from the US are relatively small.

Germany exports mostly to the EU nations protecting its market, so the USA did the same with Mexico and Canada, this means a customs Union is needed in NAFTA.