Hi KYli,
So we both think there is a chance the US could sell F-22s to Japan, but ...
KYli said:
Well I agreed there is chance that US is willing to sell F22 to Japan, but I think it is more likely not going to happen soon.
1. Since Japan would probably only buying 20-30 of F22, it does not have much effect to prolong the operation of production line. So for US, its' main objective will be profit.
Well, that is just my point. Since the production line will be closing down at the latest by 2010, and the last of the long lead items must be purchased well in advance of the end of production, Japan and the US MUST decide by around 2008 on whether or not Japan will recieve any F-22s. Once the production line is shut down, it makes no business sense to reopen it for a 20-30 plane order, say 10 yrs down the road. We will know the answer by the latest 2008.
2. US might need to take into conderation for other allied such as Britain, Germany, South Korea and Australia. If Japan is offer the F22, that will not look good for US. Other US allied will ask why they can't buy it too.
I just have to disagree with here--I don't think any of those countries will feel 'left out' or 'dissed' or anything like that. In fact, most if not all of them would consider the F-22s price tag far too steep, not to mention its capabilities for the most part unnecessary for their militaries.
3. US consider F22 as their prime air superior Fighter, and F35 as an export and mass produce secondary fighter. If f22 is on sell, will it have effect on the export of F35. (Eventhrough F22 might not have much edge over F35 anymore, but f35 also have major price increase recently and you will get the F22 years before F35.)
I agree with you that selling the F-22 to Japan could disuade them from purchasing F-35s, but as already mentioned here there are truely nearly a dozen countries currently involved in the JSF and most of those will purchase it. The JSFs sales will hardly be dented by Japan buying two dozen F-22s, and after all, Lockheed makes both aircraft, so they get a piece of the pie either way.
4. The high level of US military might have security concern, they might feel uncomfortable to sell F22.
I agree 100%--they may decide it is just too risky to sell to anybody. Definitely the biggest hurdle to foreign sales of the Raptor.
5. US might need to take into consideration of balance of power in Asia, if US offer F22 to Japan, it may creates a new arm race.
very valid point, I am sure the US govt. realizes both Russia and especially China will have big issues with such a sale. I hope they think this issue thoroughly through.
6. Japan might not want an expensive fighters if they are getting a downgrade version. Lately, Japan do tends to want to be more self reliable, they might try to make new fighter with help from US.
7. US might want to offer other fighters to Japan.
I also agree here. Japan will be considering very seriously the F-35 and a version of the F-15 similiar to what Singapore has chosen with all the latest avionics gizmos. Japan will also be offered the Eurofighter and possibly Rafael when it formally requests proposals, but due to political considerations a US design is obviously at the forefront.