Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Yeah in my hypothetical ceasefire deal Russia keeps de facto control over its current occupation zones. I don't think at this point Ukraine actually wants to govern Donbass and Crimea again, too much bad blood. And keeping the current occupation zones forever could be costly for Russia. So they can exchange formal recognition for de facto control somewhere else. Lifting of central bank and tech sanctions (the most damaging ones) must of course be part of the ceasefire agreement, so US and EU must be parties to the agreement. Of course, sanction can be reimposed, but EU and US must be aware that freezing central bank assets of a legitimate government is against international law (sovereign immunity) and I highly doubt they will reintroduce it in peace time.
Again, everything is purely hypothetical.
The Belarus border town was a mutually agreed site of negotiations (one of last resort).....but Belarus was definitely not a mediator. You want a fair, objective, and impartial mediator, which Belarus is probably the least qualified nation in the world to be a mediator in this conflict, it hosted a Russian invasion from it's territory as springboard to attack Kyiv/Kiev capital and defacto co-belligerent at this point.
I think China will agree to mediate, but it will mediate within the framework of UNSC and UN Charter, because it's not just China's prestige on the line, but also the legitimacy of United Nations as an institution to moderate great power conflicts with smaller powers. Plus, you get the benefit of deferring the responsibility and burden amongst more nations, and you won't get blamed or smeared by West if talks break downs. The West would love to smear China for "Favoring Russian aggression" and even if talks succeed, China will be blamed for "Aiding and abetting imperialism" for Ukrainian territorial concessions. Plus, how can you ensure you don't piss off Putin or inadvertently offend him by characterizing his actions as 'aggressive'? Because I won't sugarcoat it, his actions are aggressive, and if China is uncomfortable saying this to Putin's face and risk offending Putin, then it shouldn't be getting involved in a lose-lose situation. Atleast punt to UNSC and distribute the blame in event talks fails (again).
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This is what happens when you arm untrained civilians and hand weapons to criminals/prisoners. They either throw themselves at the enemies all gung ho-like and get themselves shredded ruthlessly, or they revert to being armed thugs and gangsters who have no qualms about committing robberies and grand theft auto then shoot the drivers while at it.
For all the outrage directed at Putin for starting this war, I'm appalled at Zelenskyy's willingness to put his own countrymen so unnecessarily and brutally in harm's way just so he can have more bodies to throw at the Russians in an exact repeat of Volkssturm, while causing even more mayhem amongst the populace at the same time.
You're misunderstanding how much the world has changed since the invasion. Still operating on pre-invasion assumptions.
Sanctions aren't coming off unless the Russians completely get wiped out and/or retreat entirely from Ukraine.
Ukraine joins EU + NATO after the shooting ends, no compromises.
This is how the West thinks because they see this as a mortal threat to the international order they set up and control.
Chinese evacuating citizens and their foreign spouses.
Strange how Modi and his Jai Hinds are unable to provide even that basic a service to their own citizens- and they still wish to compare India to China!
Well, if Russia thinks like that it might get nothing except occupation/unrest, sanctions and another cold war / iron curtain.
If Russia wants to get out of this clusterfuck with any real gains they will have to make a formal treaty with the current legitimate Ukrainian leadership. Otherwise the path is set in stone.
Here it comes, Nazi superman vs Holy warrior
Yeah, exactly, this is entirely an European problem.
In history, the longest period of European peace has been the nuclear era during the Cold War.
Once the Cold War was over, the European wars started again.
That is why there is such a collective freakout in the Western world.
(Even during the Cold War, wars involving European and Western powers still occurred, but outside of the continent. Today? Thanks, but no thanks.)
Pray all those Chinese citizens and families get out of Kiev on time, they need to hussle!!!
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