Ukrainian War Developments

Hadoren said:

China should absolutely not mediate a ceasefire or host talks.

In the end, either Russia or Ukraine is going to be humiliated. Most likely Ukraine.

If Russia is humiliated, you betray your strongest ally. An ally with massive nukes, the #2/#3 army in the world, and a long northern border. The ally that will supply food, oil, and natural resources in any future war with America.

If Ukraine is predictably humiliated, the EU will blame you for Ukraine's defeat. You are now an accomplice to Russia and the European peoples will find a true reason to genuinely hate China. The EU still hasn't put broad tariffs or sanctions on China.

Let's keep it that way. Avoid this poisoned chalice.

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I dunno, they didn't blame or sanction Belarus for the talks breaking down and Belarus is an outright Russian core ally.

Then again they are also looking for an excuse to take down China. Hmm.

I admit that forcing Ukraine to sign an unequal treaty could look bad. Might not be a good idea after all.

9dashline said:

Zel is a mossad agent?

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He is probably trying to hedge his bets as Israel had a direct line with Russia to, mostly, try to clear things out whenever Israel fucked around Syria and threatened Russian assets in the process.

Warning, graphic content.

FairAndUnbiased said:

If China does mediate, I believe this is a good starting point for a treaty:

1. Ukraine has to understand that Russia is a major power with legitimate concerns. It is going to get an unequal treaty. If it wants to remain mostly 1 country, it needs to recognize Russian Donbass, recognize Russian Crimea, Zelensky promises to prosecute Nazis, quit EU, sign treaty to never join NATO, and join CSTO.

2. Russia should be gently convinced that maximalist requests are not good for long term peace. Showing some mercy such as merely taking all of Donbass, rather than all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper, and allowing Ukrainians to keep Kiev whole, would be a start. Paying a little token compensation would also help.

So there you go. Ukraine survives with most of its territory, Russia gains territory and wins the war according to it's stated goals.

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Probably won’t happen. It’s a foregone conclusion at this point that Ukraine is a NATO puppet.

Might be nothing left of Kharkiv once everything is over.
Awful.

Phead128 said:

China mediate ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.....Why should China get involved in this shit? China will get smeared by West anyways and any talk of "Putin cool it" will be interpreted as "slight" or "betrayal" by Putin, so what is the point of getting involved? China should stay out of this giant clusterfck.

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I agree. What puts me off the most about it is the fact the west seem keen on it.

FairAndUnbiased said:

If China does mediate, I believe this is a good starting point for a treaty:

1. Ukraine has to understand that Russia is a major power with legitimate concerns. It is going to get an unequal treaty. If it wants to remain mostly 1 country, it needs to recognize Russian Donbass, recognize Russian Crimea, Zelensky promises to prosecute Nazis, quit EU, sign treaty to never join NATO, and join CSTO.

2. Russia should be gently convinced that maximalist requests are not good for long term peace. Showing some mercy such as merely taking all of Donbass, rather than all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper, and allowing Ukrainians to keep Kiev whole, would be a start. Paying a little token compensation would also help.

So there you go. Ukraine survives with most of its territory, Russia gains territory and wins the war according to it's stated goals.

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The problem is...right now the two countries are VERY far from coming to an agreement. Russia is asking for all of Ukraine and Ukraine doesn't appear to be prepared to give up any of its territory. Russia thinks they have the upper hand because they're winning, and the Ukrainians because they think NATO will help them.

This may take a long time to solve diplomatically.

China shouldn't touch this with a bargepole.

Mohsin77 said:

Again, this doesn't make any sense.

You're equation is: Russia is weak + Russia is rational = Russia is "aggressive".

But Weak + Rational actors aren't Aggressive man! Because that's crazy.

And since you've already admitted that NATO is "inherently aggressive" just do the math.

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Mohsin77 said:

Again, this doesn't make any sense.

You're equation is: Russia is weak + Russia is rational = Russia is "aggressive".

But Weak + Rational actors aren't Aggressive man! Because that's crazy.

And since you've already admitted that NATO is "inherently aggressive" just do the math.

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Your logic doesn’t make any sense the saving grace of Russia is that it has the largest strategic arsenal; this logic can apply to the DPRK which is inherently weaker than its neighbor and acts in an aggressive manner yet posses a strategic arsenal and gets away with it.

Economically and militarily the Russian Federation is weak, it still carriers a Soviet mentality around when it comes to doctrine and it shows.

If a country invades another country then said country is an invader, an aggressor, your logic does not make any sense. Russia is acting in an aggressive manner when diplomatic solutions could have gone a lot further than any invasion ever will, now the Ukrainians hate the Russians even more and are justified a lot more in hating them than they would have been.

Ukraine would have never wanted to join NATO or the EU had Russia not invaded in 2014 and continued to occupy the country as an aggressor without attempting a diplomatic solution.

These are gradual building blocks to take over the country, pre-meditated since before 2014 simply because they lost their puppet.

ThomX said:

China will surely favor Russia more than enough to compensate the war if they mediate. Chinese remember Motor Sich.
美国人可以拉偏架，中国人为什么不行？
And who cares about what Ukraine or EU think? They don't possess the right to speak in this event. Not even close. Let them stay the f out and see how permanent council members make the deal.

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However, I should add up one point, that is not to have mediation before Ukraine has lost. It's unwise to mediate when two are fighting really hard, since their furies will come towards you directly.
Just wait for Zelenskyy to clap the ground and beg for mercy, and China can act as a savior and exploit porfit for Russia and the loss in Motor Sich case.
Nevertheless, this is merely a personal opinion, and I doubt that our leaders are too morally proud to do such thing. It makes us no difference to those imperialists that harmed Chinese people hundred years ago.

I hope Russians remember who stood behind them during such times.

meckhardt98 said:

Your logic doesn’t make any sense

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That's my claim against your logic, case in point:

meckhardt98 said:

Economically and militarily the Russian Federation is weak, it still carriers a Soviet mentality around when it comes to doctrine and it shows.

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Now you're resorting to the same tactic as Sequ, and talking about "mentalities" like some psychiatrist. Plus, you're contradicting yourself again. You already admitted Russia is a rational actor. But a rational actor doesn't walk around with suicidal "mentalities." And make no mistake, for a Weak power to be aggressive, that is suicidal and not rational.

But whatever... you can remain unconvinced, but at least don't pretend like your case is clear cut (when it's clearly not.)