Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Remember the goal is a ceasefire agreement, not a final treaty.
Still, China will never allow itself to be associated with an unequal treaty where sovereign territory changes hands. So no Donbass recognition. No Crimea recognition. None of that. But realistically Russia will not agree to a ceasefire without sovereign territory changes hands. So the possibility for a ceasefire agreement is zero, and China should not agree with mediate.
My purely hypothetical, idealist solution? Ukraine promises to never join NATO in exchange for Russian public blessing over Ukraine's EU membership application. All fighting stops, but Russia keeps de facto control of territory it currently occupies.
Ukraine gets security from future EU mutual defense clause, but that can happen only if it passes EU requirements on minority rights. Russia avoids Ukraine joining NATO. China is happy that NATO doesn't expand as China is against military blocks and EU is not a (pure) military block. UN peacekeeping forces in Eastern Ukraine. EU and US agrees to life most damaging sanctions against Russia especially central bank sanctions and tech sanctions. Russia is the biggest loser, but at least it will get its public war goals (no NATO expansion and protection of ethnic Russians).
Russia and Ukraine can then negotiate Donbass, Crimea and Russian occupation zones somewhere else.
This can only happen if Putin realizes the invasion was a mistake, and wants to roll it back. I don't think that's the case. So zero possibility it actually happens.
Still, China will never allow itself to be associated with an unequal treaty where sovereign territory changes hands. So no Donbass recognition. No Crimea recognition. None of that. But realistically Russia will not agree to a ceasefire without sovereign territory changes hands. So the possibility for a ceasefire agreement is zero, and China should not agree with mediate.
My purely hypothetical, idealist solution? Ukraine promises to never join NATO in exchange for Russian public blessing over Ukraine's EU membership application. All fighting stops, but Russia keeps de facto control of territory it currently occupies.
Ukraine gets security from future EU mutual defense clause, but that can happen only if it passes EU requirements on minority rights. Russia avoids Ukraine joining NATO. China is happy that NATO doesn't expand as China is against military blocks and EU is not a (pure) military block. UN peacekeeping forces in Eastern Ukraine. EU and US agrees to life most damaging sanctions against Russia especially central bank sanctions and tech sanctions. Russia is the biggest loser, but at least it will get its public war goals (no NATO expansion and protection of ethnic Russians).
Russia and Ukraine can then negotiate Donbass, Crimea and Russian occupation zones somewhere else.
This can only happen if Putin realizes the invasion was a mistake, and wants to roll it back. I don't think that's the case. So zero possibility it actually happens.
Not yet, the assault seems to be starting:
Do you really think the Chinese consulate in Ukraine has any position to do that?
If you were discriminated by your boss, could I say something for you? Sure. But am I responsible to find you a better job?
Russia will never accept a treaty without at least recognition of Donbass and Crimea. It has invested too much and it is actually winning.
Ukraine promising not to join NATO isn't enough anymore, they had the chance. When you lose, you don't get to go back to the original request, you have to give up more to stop from being beaten. Ukraine has to do something like join CSTO and constitutionally prohibit itself from leaving.
And if Russia does not get sanctions lifted then they would've been essentially defeated if they don't get territory out of it, so they need insurance. It really isn't just between Ukraine and Russia, EU/NATO have been sucked in as well.
First point is unrealistic. Ukraine wants Russia gone for good and out of its orbit even to the point of defeat and occupation.
Remember that Ukraine is an independent sovereign state and not some runaway province.
Russia has its security concerns but so has Ukraine.
And those are protection from Russia for the foreseeable future.
Ukraine won't trust any treaty written by Russia after was has transpired.
Only NATO or better yet EU can provide this protection now.
Some form of Finlandization would work with the latter.
Coupled with formally seceding Donpass and Crimea this should more than satisfy Russia.
If both paties could live with such a treaty it's not unthinkable that most sanctions from the West would be lifted.
That's Ukraine's real bargaining chip.
My sources inform me that Russians and DPR troops have captured the river port and railways station in Kherson and are entering Mariupol under stiff resistance.
Bit of a poor analogy to compare workplace discrimination to being shoved off a train that was your only way to escape a war-torn country and left to die for the colour of your skin in a country that's not even your own.
Sanctions are unilateral and cost nothing, it is literally just words and domestic laws. They can come back any time. Whose to say that the minute Russia signs and Ukraine is in NATO/EU, those sanctions don't just come back?
Russia will never accept any amount of terms without hard insurance like all of Donbass, recognition of Crimea and Ukraine agreeing to all of their public war goals. And they have the upper hand here because at this point they have the hard power to partition Ukraine permanently or leave it a failed state. So it really isn't Ukraine choosing between "do I go with EU or do I go with Russia" at this point, it is "do I stay a mostly complete sovereign nation or do I suffer the fate of Nazi Germany and post WW2 Korea and Vietnam"?
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