Wow. Here we are, at the end of day 6. Its that time to dump what's in the brain and onto the screen. All of you get to enjoy and it will be more fun than, well, nothing. This is my opinion and my opinion alone. No one else would want to touch it, not even with a Kamchatka to Rostov length pole.
Here we go!
1. Russia CONTINUES to win. They are beating back the Ukrainians bit by bit. Sometimes in not so small amounts. The inevitable is coming for Ukraine. It just has not happened yet.
2. The propaganda remains thicker than mud. Splattered and smeared all over. Whether its the messages by the Russians to everyone's phones in Ukraine claiming Zelenskyy has ordered a surrender or the Ukrainians making some very wild, wild claims, we are getting it thick. Please, give some critical thought to what you read. Likewise, be willing to accept what goes against your grain if it turns out to be true. Personal bias can be a hard thing to overcome. I actually have some faith in the community here that is possible.
3. I am going to call this out big time. There are some WILD claims by the Ukrainians right now. I mean, really, really wild. One was an enormous strike on equipment by everyone's favorite pet drone. 200 vehicles? Really? Show me legit pix. There are others. Some make my eyebrows go well past the ceiling. I really wish they'd stop. It's stupid and unhelpful to their own cause. We don't need more Il-76 mass shootdowns. We don't need more Ghost of Kiev. We need pix of real events.
4. That said, before we move into the concrete events, I also want to say there's a fair amount of information that is contextless. Like a battery or battalion of massive 152mm howitzers that seems to be completely abandoned. I don't see the markings of the Russians. Yet, the equipment around seems to be more consistent with the more modern Russian. I doubt the Ukrainians pilfered all of that together...makes no sense. That's just one example. I'd suggest placing those into a category of interesting, but not super meaningful until context can be placed.
4. Kherson has fallen! (sheepish look) Some awful events took place there in the park. I mentioned it earlier. Will the Russians finally lunge west now? Or is there a chance they may have to do the cha-cha back and forth with the Ukrainians there?
5. Mariupol is surrounded and under siege. the DNR and Russian Army are fighting their way inwards. This will be bloody. This will be awful. This will be a tragedy. Azov is there. If there is a singular good thing about the war it will be excising that tumor. It's a cancer I will not cry over when its said and done.
6. Kharkov has a major battle underway. The VDV is pushing into the city again. It seems to have been a flanking airborne attack with a solid push from that direction inwards, but I could be mistaken. There are reports of a hospital being attacked. If it has Ukrainian soldiers fighting from it, then its a legit target, as awful as that is. If there are none, then it is absolutely not. Will it fall soon or will this be an epic Leroy Jenkins again?
7. The Russians are pounding Kiev. However, there have only been a handful of serious thrusts inward and they have been smashed. Borodyanko and Bucha, for example. The long convoy everyone has been talking about has been going at a snail's pace. Some are claiming its running out of gas. Given there are supply trucks, even tankers, in the convoy that makes very little sense. The pace is very slow though. It's a head scratcher.
8. Poltava was attacked! This one terrifies me greatly for personal reasons, but the attack seems to have been a thrust that died fairly quickly. Multiple T-80s were recovered. They appear undamaged.
9. Sumy is still contested. Nearby Trostyanets has fallen to the Russians.
10. There's still no evidence of the two Russian pincers meeting to create the kessel for the eastern Ukrainian forces. I'm somewhat confused by this. if its really happening, then there should be evidence. Even with all the data being pumped out from online, I'm not seeing it. Why? Am I blind?
11. There are significant reports of supply and morale issues in the Russian army. We've seen the problems with fuel, but I've assumed the slowdown in operations was to let the logistics crew catchup and get everything rectified. Yet, the reports flow, much like the spice. There was a claim of contractors in Belogorod rioting (no evidence) and a unit in Crimea refusing orders. Again, pix, folks, or it didn't happen.
12. Belarus has not yet joined the fight much directly. They have moved men and equipment to the border, but as of writing, I've not seen reports of them crossing. The total troops there have doubled according to reports.
13. Ukraine. Still there. Still fighting. Kiev stands. There are increasing reports of the Ukrainians targeting fuel convoys in almost partisan tactics. If the fuel problems are real, this could bare serious fruit. Or not. The logistics bit could be a minor, temporary setback. Immobilizing the armies and then having the population hostile is a nasty, nasty place to be in.
14. Flight Global reported Su-25 and Su-24 strikes by the Ukrainians are still happening. I guess that's some consolation for the withdrawal of the offer (if it existed) for the Mikoyans from Poland et al. The one Su-27 was returned by Romania, so, yeah? That said, the TB2s and the remaining UAF seem to be still in the fight. Much to my surprise. They are not making runs over Kiev afaict now though or any other place where people seem to have modern cell phones, so, there is that. hmmm.
15. That takes us back to my little monkey organ to turn. Russian AF, where the fsck are you? We're seeing Su-35s and Su-34s, but...talk about a negligible impact they've had. And the Ukrainians are still in the air. c'mon. You are supposed to be terrifying. At least do a good jump scare! Otherwise you're going to get the kids thinking they can come after you with a Cessna and .22. yeesh.
16. Boeing and Airbus are ended support of Russian airlines. I'd suggest selling their birds to the Chinese or Turks. The US closed its air space to Russian aircraft. Exxon is pulling out of Russia after all the drama over Saklhin-1 (Hey, China, there's a gas field...) The US President is going in hard and fast for the Russian Oligarchs. I ... can't say this is the worst thing from anyone's perspective. American, European, Russian, Ukrainian. I think we found a topic most will like, even Putin. Unless Putin has failed the CPG Grey's Rulers for Rulers course, which case, this could suck for him. Maersk has stopped all shipping to Russia. Canada has closed all ports and territorial waters to Russian ships (psst, America, can you help with that, please. My navy needs a mild..update. Kinda like my fighters. I'm still waffling on what to pick though! thanx and sorry about that - Canada) Mastercard, Visa and American Express have blocked all Russian banks. Ford has shutdown in Russia.
17. So, weirdness. This is a weird war and we cannot leave this post without complaining about the weirdness. Construction companies have started recovering equipment abandoned for the Ukrainians. Protests have broken out where people are standing in the way of the Russians. Russians have fired machine guns in the air and fired tear gas, but people refused to budge. I have to wonder if the Russians won't get tired of this and start gunning them down. That's horrible, but...well... unarmed people vs stressed soldiers with machine guns. Not a place I'd recommend for a long life. There seems to be an additional weird bit about the Russians seemingly communicating over open, unencrypted radios. That would explain the ambushes, but...weird. Makes little sense despite the numerous reports. Finally, freakin commercial drones are being used to direct fire by everyone's least favorite nazis in Ukraine. Why in the world are the Russians not using their vaunted EW on that? They used more EW in 2014 than this. I mean, DJI makes great drones, but, c'mon, Russia!
Let me say it again. Russia is winning. The Russians are going to finish this off.
However, I'd have to say the Ukrainian chances of survival have risen minorly: 7%.
6 days or 144 hours is a lot longer than the 72 previously claimed it would take. The campaign isn't nearly over either. Ukrainian morale is not yet broken. Until it is.
