Ukrainian War Developments

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Overbom

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FairAndUnbiased said:
Russia might not be able to diplomatically push for this. They've always had to give something up.

This is a minimum of course. Russia won't settle for LESS than all of Eastern Ukraine.
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Agreed. Minimum should be Eastern Ukraine but I would add to that, all the coastal areas in order to get a direct land border access with Romania and Moldova. Russia isn't interested in Romania, but it definetely is on Moldova

Moldova can become the next Ukraine situation so it is important to have access to it

For Western Ukraine, Russia's maximalist demand would be demilitarization and non-alignment/neutral status. Depending on Russia's "position of strength" at the time of negotiations it can lower its demands
 
james smith esq

james smith esq

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meckhardt98 said:
The stand-off range is good; however I wonder why they are resorting to using Tu22M bombers for precision strikes.

Did they run out of Iskander and or Kalibr missiles to launch at Ukraine? It’s not unrealistic to assume that warships in the Black Sea have expended most of their munitions by now based on the frequency of Kalibr strikes early on in the invasion and they should still have a surplus of other guided missile platforms [unless those two have run dried and then that presents a far more serious problem].

Perhaps they are unwilling to risk combat pilots knowing that some Ukranian air defenses are still active [especially with it being reported an Su34 was shot down today] or perhaps they simply needed training and this proved an ample time; all that considered the Kh22/32 platform isn’t the most modern platform available to the RuAF or the Tu22M. It is likely we will never know although it is interesting to speculate on.
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If I’m not mistaken, Kh-32 is a quite contemporary weapon.
 
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Vatt’ghern

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OppositeDay said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498726397686259713

I'm afraid Russia will eventually come to regret its Ukraine neo-Nazi state narrative. The West has been engaging in historical revisionism to downplay USSR's role in WWII. Cynical use of anti-Nazi narrative to justify the present war in Ukraine can only damage Russian credibility. And equivalating Japanese support for Ukraine with Japanese alliance with Nazi Germany will only play into the hands of apologists of Japanese militarism.

IMO, China should not join Russia's upcoming World Anti-Fascist Convention.
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In fairness to Russia, Nazism under its new incarnation of 'race realism', 'altright' and 'unironic 4chan meme magic' has seen a resurgence in the West; only 5 years ago there was a Neo Nazi rally in Charlottesville, USA coupled with downplaying Soviet sacrifices during ww2 and US attempting to use Azov and other hybrid warfare fighters to achieve its geopolitical objectives. A lot of the initial fighters that joined Azov were american neo-nazis.

Current USA society and culture is becoming more and more fascistic as observed by Pulitzer Prize winner Chris Hedges and this is naturally something to guard against.
 
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lapain

New Member
Registered Member
meckhardt98 said:
The stand-off range is good; however I wonder why they are resorting to using Tu22M bombers for precision strikes.

Did they run out of Iskander and or Kalibr missiles to launch at Ukraine? It’s not unrealistic to assume that warships in the Black Sea have expended most of their munitions by now based on the frequency of Kalibr strikes early on in the invasion and they should still have a surplus of other guided missile platforms [unless those two have run dried and then that presents a far more serious problem].

Perhaps they are unwilling to risk combat pilots knowing that some Ukranian air defenses are still active [especially with it being reported an Su34 was shot down today] or perhaps they simply needed training and this proved an ample time; all that considered the Kh22/32 platform isn’t the most modern platform available to the RuAF or the Tu22M. It is likely we will never know although it is interesting to speculate on.
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The Su-34 alleged shot down is for the moment, just a claim. A little fragment is far away from the genuine article. Could have been indeed shot down, or damaged, or the part made up from plastic....
 
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ArmchairAnalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
Overbom said:
Why let them join EU/NATO though?
Just enforce to it neutral status and that it isn't allowed to join such any similar organisations
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1) Because you have to give Ukraine what it's fighting for. Otherwise it won't solve things long term.
2) Ukraine would demand national security guarantees in form of either NATO or EU. They won't trust Russia again for generations.
3) To normalize things somewhat with the West.
 
Godzilla

Godzilla

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Registered Member
Helius said:
At the risk of being an opportunist, it could be a real boon for China if the Chinese consulate in Ukraine could arrange similar evacuations for Africans trapped in-country.
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Couldn't agree more. Especially if they also start sending medical/humanitarian aid to Ukraine too for displaced refugees etc. (Wasn't that something Wang Yi was hinting?) That should make it alot easier extracting the remaining expats and would really bolster the neutrality stance and makes it that much easier to deal with all sides once this all settles, regardless of the winners.
 
sferrin

sferrin

Junior Member
Registered Member
meckhardt98 said:
The stand-off range is good; however I wonder why they are resorting to using Tu22M bombers for precision strikes.

Did they run out of Iskander and or Kalibr missiles to launch at Ukraine? It’s not unrealistic to assume that warships in the Black Sea have expended most of their munitions by now based on the frequency of Kalibr strikes early on in the invasion and they should still have a surplus of other guided missile platforms [unless those two have run dried and then that presents a far more serious problem].

Perhaps they are unwilling to risk combat pilots knowing that some Ukranian air defenses are still active [especially with it being reported an Su34 was shot down today] or perhaps they simply needed training and this proved an ample time; all that considered the Kh22/32 platform isn’t the most modern platform available to the RuAF or the Tu22M. It is likely we will never know although it is interesting to speculate on.
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They probably have a lot of Kh-22s kicking around nearing the end of their service lives. May as well use them if they need that kind of hit.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
meckhardt98 said:
We won’t know for sure until the end of the conflict; the Russians still have a long ways to go still and the consequences and ramifications will change the politics of Europe and the Black Sea region for years to come.

I can speculate however that if the Russians decide to occupy eastern Ukraine for the foreseeable future there will more than likely be a violent Ukrainian lead insurrection against the Russians
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Eastern Ukraine is heavily Russian speaking. To further consolidate demographics and reduce insurgency pressure they can allow anyone who wants to leave, to simply leave for western Ukraine. Russia can even offer to their moving costs.

This is completely incomparable to Iraq or Afghanistan. There's no English speaking Anglo demographic in Iraq or Afghanistan and US isn't located in the Middle East. Given that they can essentially get their lives back and get paid for it, and the alternative of fighting means arrest or worse, most Ukrainians who absolutely couldn't stand Russia would just leave.
 
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