Ukrainian War Developments

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Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
I doubt that many in Ukraine's government really want to invade Donbass, including the President. Remember the phone call? The push from them seems to be coming from the Americans.
I very much doubt that Ukrainian politicians do not want to reconquer Donbass. What might change is the aggressiveness of such acts in an attempt to regain lost territory, Zelensky is much less aggressive than Poroshenko's wing towards pro-Russian Ukrainians.
 

ZeEa5KPul

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The west is clearly spoiling for a fight with russia. /s
Oh, yes it is. Not all fights are waged with bombs and bullets. It's the West that brought this on Ukraine.

Hey, @Mohsin77, remember that exchange we had about ultimatums some time ago and your approval of that Stratfor guy's analysis? What do you make of what's happening now?;)
 

MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
"Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin have begun their closely watched call on Ukraine"

I was waiting for it. Notice the red-black flag of OUN (Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists).

This is another picture from today's march:

Kijow 2022-02-12.jpg

For those who are not aware:

OUN were Ukrainian fascists and German collaborators and the radical wing OUN-B modeled itself explicitly after Nazi ideology and was responsible for the genocide of Poles and Jews in Western Ukraine. They are a fringe in present day Ukrainian politics but they are not irrelevant in the broader political context. Stepan Bandera, the leader of OUN-B, was awarded posthumously with the title of Hero of Ukraine by Viktor Yushchenko. Bandera was also a likely British/American asset after WW2 and was assassinated by KGB in 1959. OUN has had extensive support among the Ukrainian diaspora in the west. The funding from North America that allowed for the establishment of volunteer units like Azov came through those connections and directly to nationalist organizations.

Both Yushchenko (Our Ukraine), Poroshenko (Solidarity/European Solidarity) and Timoshenko (Fatherland) were reaching for nationalist electorate. Yatsenuk, Turchynov and Avakov were directly connected to it through People's Front and the volunteer units. The nationalists are their fighting force and it is a deliberate choice because the nationalists see themselves as the only legitimate representation of the Ukrainian nation and therefore are willing to create conflict even at the cost of causing the breakup of the country. They are, like all nationalists, fundamentally irrational and perceive their country as an idealized mental image, rather than a reality around them that requires compromise. They are therefore ideal tools for anyone who is willing to use Ukraine as means of personal enrichment in service of a foreign power.

There are more pictures of the demonstration in this AP article:

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Note how the demonstration is next to US embassy in Kiyv. Did it start there?

Meanwhile:


I'm standing by my hypothesis that in short term American and British actions in recent days/weeks were not about Russian invasion but an overthrow of Zelensky's government. The long-term goal is using Ukraine as pretext for more direct sanctions on Russia and indirect weakening of the Eurozone.

For more context - my post on the shifting of power between subsequent governments after 2014:


----------------------

I'd like to add one more thing. It's always useful to know who you quote on Twitter. I will refer to one name in particular.


and


Konrad Muzyka is a regular Polish collaborator of Michael Kofman of Center for Naval Analyses (CNA).

CNA is a "federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for the United States Navy and Marine Corps. It also provides research and analysis services to other military and government agencies to help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of U.S. national defense efforts."(Wikipedia). It is in other words a military intelligence front and Michael Kofman is therefore a military intelligence asset.

Michael Kofman has a number of publications as well as a blog on Russian military:

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In the last year he has published a number of articles and reports on Russian military buildup in Ukraine and some of those publications for legal reasons had to be supplemented with information about the source of funding which came from US Army Europe.

Konrad Muzyka has a company called Rochan Consulting which he uses to both process payment and to launder information that is further disseminated in American media as part of the "locally-sourced OSINT". Recently that caused Muzyka to be recycled back into Polish media since now his content is recognized as "international". It's an interesting lesson on how information is legitimized through this process of "source laundering".

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

What's even more interesting is that Konrad Muzyka has been described by Michael Kofman in one of his interviews as a "graphic artist" and not an analyst or someone working in a related field. He is best known for authoring a paper on Russian Western Military District order of battle but the paper while superficially competent goes little further than into combining available information about recent changes and presenting them in a coherent format.

Recently have listened to a discussion panel (in Polish) in which Muzyka participated and found him to be completely unreliable as an expert on Russian military and potentially even an outright fraud repeating whatever he is fed by his handlers. I'd like to emphasize that I'm referring here to his technical competence, and not his stances or opinions. He simply was talking about things which could be easily verified on Wikipedia and made elementary errors. Such person simply can't be considered competent.

Know your sources and remember: Twitter is not a source. It's a psychological weapon.
 

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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
I was waiting for it. Notice the red-black flag of OUN (Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists).

This is another picture from today's march:

View attachment 82680

For those who are not aware:

OUN were Ukrainian fascists and German collaborators and the radical wing OUN-B modeled itself explicitly after Nazi ideology and was responsible for the genocide of Poles and Jews in Western Ukraine. They are a fringe in present day Ukrainian politics but they are not irrelevant in the broader political context. Stepan Bandera, the leader of OUN-B, was awarded posthumously with the title of Hero of Ukraine by Viktor Yushchenko. Bandera was also a likely British/American asset after WW2 and was assassinated by KGB in 1959. OUN has had extensive support among the Ukrainian diaspora in the west. The funding from North America that allowed for the establishment of volunteer units like Azov came through those connections and directly to nationalist organizations.

Both Yushchenko (Our Ukraine), Poroshenko (Solidarity/European Solidarity) and Timoshenko (Fatherland) were reaching for nationalist electorate. Yatsenuk, Turchynov and Avakov were directly connected to it through People's Front and the volunteer units. The nationalists are their fighting force and it is a deliberate choice because the nationalists see themselves as the only legitimate representation of the Ukrainian nation and therefore are willing to create conflict even at the cost of causing the breakup of the country. They are, like all nationalists, fundamentally irrational and perceive their country as an idealized mental image, rather than a reality around them that requires compromise. They are therefore ideal tools for anyone who is willing to use Ukraine as means of personal enrichment in service of a foreign power.

There are more pictures of the demonstration in this AP article:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Note how the demonstration is next to US embassy in Kiyv. Did it start there?

Meanwhile:


I'm standing by my hypothesis that in short term American and British actions in recent days/weeks were not about Russian invasion but an overthrow of Zelensky's government. The long-term goal is using Ukraine as pretext for more direct sanctions on Russia and indirect weakening of the Eurozone.

For more context - my post on the shifting of power between subsequent governments after 2014:


----------------------

I'd like to add one more thing. It's always useful to know who you quote on Twitter. I will refer to one name in particular.



and



Konrad Muzyka is a regular Polish collaborator of Michael Kofman of Center for Naval Analyses (CNA).

CNA is a "federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for the United States Navy and Marine Corps. It also provides research and analysis services to other military and government agencies to help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of U.S. national defense efforts."(Wikipedia). It is in other words a military intelligence front and Michael Kofman is therefore a military intelligence asset.

Michael Kofman has a number of publications as well as a blog on Russian military:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In the last year he has published a number of articles and reports on Russian military buildup in Ukraine and some of those publications for legal reasons had to be supplemented with information about the source of funding which came from US Army Europe.

Konrad Muzyka has a company called Rochan Consulting which he uses to both process payment and to launder information that is further disseminated in American media as part of the "locally-sourced OSINT". Recently that caused Muzyka to be recycled back into Polish media since now his content is recognized as "international". It's an interesting lesson on how information is legitimized through this process of "source laundering".

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

What's even more interesting is that Konrad Muzyka has been described by Michael Kofman in one of his interviews as a "graphic artist" and not an analyst or someone working in a related field. He is best known for authoring a paper on Russian Western Military District order of battle but the paper while superficially competent goes little further than into combining available information about recent changes and presenting them in a coherent format.

Recently have listened to a discussion panel (in Polish) in which Muzyka participated and found him to be completely unreliable as an expert on Russian military and potentially even an outright fraud repeating whatever he is fed by his handlers. I'd like to emphasize that I'm referring here to his technical competence, and not his stances or opinions. He simply was talking about things which could be easily verified on Wikipedia and made elementary errors. Such person simply can't be considered competent.

Know your sources and remember: Twitter is not a source. It's a psychological weapon.
Good post, you really seem to know your stuff. What do you think happens next? Do you think Russia will invade on the 16th? It seems clear to me that Russia can smash the Ukrainian "military" faster than I can blink, but should Russia opt to invade then what happens next? Do you take seriously this threat of an insurgency?
 

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'd like to add one more thing. It's always useful to know who you quote on Twitter. I will refer to one name in particular.



and



Konrad Muzyka is a regular Polish collaborator of Michael Kofman of Center for Naval Analyses (CNA).

CNA is a "federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for the United States Navy and Marine Corps. It also provides research and analysis services to other military and government agencies to help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of U.S. national defense efforts."(Wikipedia). It is in other words a military intelligence front and Michael Kofman is therefore a military intelligence asset.

Michael Kofman has a number of publications as well as a blog on Russian military:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In the last year he has published a number of articles and reports on Russian military buildup in Ukraine and some of those publications for legal reasons had to be supplemented with information about the source of funding which came from US Army Europe.

Konrad Muzyka has a company called Rochan Consulting which he uses to both process payment and to launder information that is further disseminated in American media as part of the "locally-sourced OSINT". Recently that caused Muzyka to be recycled back into Polish media since now his content is recognized as "international". It's an interesting lesson on how information is legitimized through this process of "source laundering".

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

What's even more interesting is that Konrad Muzyka has been described by Michael Kofman in one of his interviews as a "graphic artist" and not an analyst or someone working in a related field. He is best known for authoring a paper on Russian Western Military District order of battle but the paper while superficially competent goes little further than into combining available information about recent changes and presenting them in a coherent format.

Recently have listened to a discussion panel (in Polish) in which Muzyka participated and found him to be completely unreliable as an expert on Russian military and potentially even an outright fraud repeating whatever he is fed by his handlers. I'd like to emphasize that I'm referring here to his technical competence, and not his stances or opinions. He simply was talking about things which could be easily verified on Wikipedia and made elementary errors. Such person simply can't be considered competent.

Know your sources and remember: Twitter is not a source. It's a psychological weapon.
Thank you very much for your warnings, albeit done unnecessarily.

Rob Lee:

I've been following Lee for some time. I myself have had discussions with some of his followers who retweet his posts, in particular one of the discussions was around this post of his here:


Konrad Muzyka:

I got to know Muzyka recently, but I've known Michael Kofman for years and the Russian blog you posted - although I didn't know about this connection between them. Kofman I know deserves the due reluctance, but not for that reason we should ignore him or even Muzyka, any minimally sensible person can extract the minimum of information through disinformation.

That has always been my path of study under any circumstances. As much misinformation as a news item may contain, I can extract valuable information, regardless of which bias and content the text covers.

Therefore, before questioning the bias of any analyst or person, we must analyze the author's content, you yourself say that you analyzed Muzyka's competence and found that his statements can be found on Wikipedia or even commit abyssal errors of a dubious character, I I don't have the slightest doubt about it.

For example, this same tweet, Muzyka claims that 90 or more BTGs are parked on the border of Ukraine when this is not really proven, but I will not stop analyzing the content he has to offer, this may displease others , but as long as the forum gives me the freedom to post such content, I will post it, even if they are sources of misinformation that will immediately be countered with sources of information. Combating divergent points of view is the basis for any group and discussion forum, if there really were no divergence, just one word would be enough and everyone else would be silent.

If you or any other member analyzes my appropriate posts on the subject in this same topic, you will attest that I do not fall for the Ukraine invasion narrative, but I will continue to post these narratives from whoever these publications are.
 
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