Ukrainian War Developments

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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
The best explanation should be this :

This is a good indicator about the evolution of Empires.

The Roman Empire was in growing phase for 700 years, reached and kept its biggest area for 100 years, and from that pont of time it collapsed rapidly, practically in decades.


USA going throught the same phases.
Just faster, because now not only 10% of the population available for anything beyond staying alive.

IT is the collapsing phase of the USA Empire .

The Empire reached its biggest size, all resources of the Empire required to operate the Empire, means any restriction regards of access and control of marginal resources will cause an exponential collapse.


Means they can't afford to release the smallest resource from the control, loosing the means of control cause less resource for the military, that in turn means less control of resources, and the cycle lead to the collapse of the Empire in an exponential manner.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
You might be waiting a long time, China didn’t even leave Kabul.
Afghanistan was different. That was a months long civil war with steady fighting by both sides.

This time round it will be a lighting-quick operation with modern weaponry that will cause x times more casualties. I dont see how China can keep its staff in the embassy with an (potential) active war happening between 2 states.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
The invasion will only take place if Ukraine tries to re-annex Donbass. In reality, Russian troops are there for two purposes: to prevent the retaking of Donbass and to put pressure on NATO's foreign policy in Eastern Europe. The red line is Ukraine.

If by any chance the Ukrainian Army really does advance into Donbass, the Russians will stop them like they stopped them in 2015.

The narrative of the US and the West is precisely trying to cover the facade of a Ukrainian advance in Donbass, knowing that such an advance will result in civilian casualties in the pro-Russian population in Donbass, in this way, they try to discredit the Russians when the Russian media reports. this to the world that such civilians are being massacred and that the Russian Army has "invaded" Donbass, when in reality it has only advanced to protect the pro-Russian population in Donbass.

The script is the same as in Georgia, if Russia did not intervene, the Ossetians would be massacred by the Georgian army.

Now an interesting observation is the Russian mobilization through the rail network. It has no parallel in the world.
I think you may be right. Ukraine cannot take Donbass by force. They tried to in 2014 and failed, beaten back by a poorly armed irregular force. The situation now is much worse then 2014. A few surplus NATO weapons alone aren't going to turn a losing army into a winning army. I agree it will probably be a repeat of the last conflict, with Russian irregular forces supporting the locals rather than a full military invasion (like we saw in Crimea).

I doubt that many in Ukraine's government really want to invade Donbass, including the President. Remember the phone call? The push from them seems to be coming from the Americans.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
China also needs to be prudent and leave. Cannot gamble when the Empire is DESPERATE for a war with all these talk about false flags.
Why would an embassy need to leave? China isn't at war with Ukraine, and has good relations with both sides.

There won't be a taliban style militia looking to kill Chinese diplomats. Remember in Chinese history embassies had to go into MUCH more dangerous circumstances to seek peace or terms.

Embassies shutting down and running at the first sign of danger is a modern phenomenon coming from the west. Given the crimes they commit when in other countries its probably justified.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Why would an embassy need to leave? China isn't at war with Ukraine, and has good relations with both sides.

There won't be a taliban style militia looking to kill Chinese diplomats. Remember in Chinese history embassies had to go into MUCH more dangerous circumstances to seek peace or terms.

Embassies shutting down and running at the first sign of danger is a modern phenomenon coming from the west. Given the crimes they commit when in other countries its probably justified.
War is inherently an unstable thing.

Noone could want to attack the Chinese Embassy and next day you would be hearing news about a massacre happening. That's how wars (proper wars) are.

You never know when foreign intelligence (...) will use the cover of war to ransack the embassy. If a war is imminent I trust China to do the right thing and just leave. You never know when sh*t will go down.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
War is inherently an unstable thing.

Noone could want to attack the Chinese Embassy and next day you would be hearing news about a massacre happening. That's how wars (proper wars) are.

You never know when foreign intelligence (...) will use the cover of war to ransack the embassy. If a war is imminent I trust China to do the right thing and just leave. You never know when sh*t will go down.
That's part of the job of being a diplomat, it can sometimes be very dangerous and isn't for everyone. Do you consider WW2 a proper war? Embassies weren't closed then, or in other major wars.

If I was a diplomat I'd feel safer in Kiev right now than in New York.
 
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