While its important to not overhype a potential invasion, we should also not downplay the possibility of it happening.
After all, surely all these Russian troops (and increasing by the day) near Ukraine are surely not there for just for a picnic.
Anyway, we will soon find out. The Americans say next week. Let's wait
The invasion will only take place if Ukraine tries to re-annex Donbass. In reality, Russian troops are there for two purposes: to prevent the retaking of Donbass and to put pressure on NATO's foreign policy in Eastern Europe. The red line is Ukraine.
If by any chance the Ukrainian Army really does advance into Donbass, the Russians will stop them like they stopped them in 2015.
The narrative of the US and the West is precisely trying to cover the facade of a Ukrainian advance in Donbass, knowing that such an advance will result in civilian casualties in the pro-Russian population in Donbass, in this way, they try to discredit the Russians when the Russian media reports. this to the world that such civilians are being massacred and that the Russian Army has "invaded" Donbass, when in reality it has only advanced to protect the pro-Russian population in Donbass.
The script is the same as in Georgia, if Russia did not intervene, the Ossetians would be massacred by the Georgian army.
Now an interesting observation is the Russian mobilization through the rail network. It has no parallel in the world.