Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Well I suppose if they take Kiev today than you don't need any of those 3, I think that's not very likely though. An assault on Kiev would probably take multiple days. If Russia deliver a crushing, informational warfare piercing victory today than morale in Kiev will crash and will make the job much easier.
Majority of Russians still support Putin and the war especially the elderly and state firm workers. Elites and liberals in Moscow are not happy but Putin's inner circle seems to be very supportive of the war.
Many people on this thread were joking that "US is crying wolf, US is hyping up invasion threat", so it's possible Chinese gov't did not believe an actual invasion was possible because Putin said "Troops are withdrawing, no intention for war."
You think Putin cares whether 6000 Chinese citizens was evacuated 1 or 2 days earlier before invasion? Putin is NOT so thin-skinned to be "offended" by such a minor trivial action.
Evacuation your citizens on a timely manner is not "abandoning your ally". In what world would this be interpreted as "backstabbing Russia" and "losing face"? Lives matter more than "saving face". China should have pulled it's citizens out immediately if an invasion was "so obvious". It's probably because China did not expect there be an invasion, and Putin only hinted it, didn't tell Xi directly at Beijing Olympics.
Perhaps it's not an intelligence failure, but a psychological failure, China leadership thinking Russia won't dare so brazenly attack, US is crying wolf, and US is merely hyping up the Russia threat, so China thought no need to be excessively alarmed.
Yeah, everything we've seen about Russian arms in this conflict suggests they'll do that. Or maybe not. Have you seen their latest tank BTW?
As one of these people you speak of, all I have to say is： 为人民服务！
I think you fail to realize that Ukraine is Russia's backyard. Its key strategic defensive area for Russia. Any kind of Western invasion of Russia would have to happen through Ukraine and they will be extremely sensitive about it.
How senstitive? Well they can just bomb the shit out of Those nato forces and then say well, what are you gonna do now?
Russia cares more about Ukraine than Nato does. So, nato then has to make a choice. Russian attack on Nato forces did not happen in Nato soil. So, there is no threat of a Russian invasion towards nato, no need to trigger article five either. So, Nato has to essentially choose to start world war 3 for a place like Ukraine that they know is already in Russia's backyard.
Nato with their 40 trillion dollar GDP economy starting a nuclear war with Russia with 2 trillion GDP is actually advantages Russia. They have less to lose but can do equal damage to Nato cities.
So, Nato will back down and swallow that loss. Just like Russia did when US forces attacked wagner in the middle east. Again same problem, They don't care enough about Syria to start fighting America there just to take revenge for Wagner losses.
if they attack you in a place you don't care about. Would you start a world war just for you pride? Or would you swallow the loss? I think you would swallow the loss.
So, in a so called stare down contest. Russia would win by killing those staring down and daring the enemy to fight back. its just punching your opponent with a gun in your hand. Yes, both have a gun, but the rich guy would probably avoid starting a punching match with a poor guy with a lot less to lose.
If I am a Chinese leader, I would like Russia to become China's Canada. But with more nukes.
The next best is most likely a large North Korea dependent on my economy. I can somewhat control them still but Russia will now be a distraction for both the US and Europe. Comes with its own risk (I mean, just look at North Korea) but much easier to implement if Russia's economy runs aground.
The worst is probably a dismembered and severely weakened Russia. Because the next thing the West is going to target is China.
who cares about want? I and many others here only care about cold blooded evidence and cost-benefit analysis, but with consideration towards the historical contributions of Russia to China and .
you on the other hand are emotionally invested
plus, all evidence suggests that Russia is about to bring down the hammer. Neither my wants nor yours can change that because tweets or tears don't stop 152mm shells.
You wish Biden would do something, but that's the thing - by being pro Ukraine emotionally you are putting hope in the US, not in Ukraine itself. Meanwhile Russia only depends on Russia. That already says volumes. It's like how Indians and Taiwanese always say "but the US-" yeah, what about the US? US is commanded from Delhi or Taipei?
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