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Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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No, it just proves nuclear weapons actually have a use.
Russia's military would already be half destroyed by NATO without the nuclear umbrella.
I distintively recall back when I was joking about getting popcorn ready and Overborn stated he would buy an NFT, that he also said the hint is to look at what the Chinese embassay does, many other countries were already telling their citizens to leave and offering evac (this was pre-invasion) but China had not yet taken action, Overborn surmised that once/if China took action that was 100% certain the invasion was going to happen....
So surely many other countries and actors/players were also looking for hints and anything that would tip them off
I'm inclined to believe China did this for OPSEC and like the Vulcans often say, the good of the many outweight the needs of the few. The fact of the matter is, entire fate of civilizations are at stake and often it hindges on criticial moments such as these, so in the grand scheme of things sacrificing the safety of some Chinese dispora abroad the Ukraine in terms of cost benefit analysis may have been determined to be in the best interest of the long arc of Chinese national interest and Sino-Russian relations in order to maintain the element of surprise and timing or whatever it is 4D chess and 11D Go that Putin and Xi have in store that has yet to play out .
But it open also a pandora box that you have impunity with nuke... US know that too. So how much this stuff can go on ?
My guess is China did not expect an actual invasion. In fact I don't think Putin even made that decision until the last minute during the Munich security conference; from the looks of it, it was indecisive, then it was supposed to be a small Syria style COIN operation, but turned out that didn't work, and only after week 1 does Putin realize that this is a war of attrition, not a COIN operation. Here's some background.
Zelensky calls on West to confront Russia, Feb. 19
The comments by the embassy seem to indicate they expected a very rapid win. That did not happen.
Deleted. Getting tired.
If nuclear weapons were not in play, then it would be interesting to see what the threshold for foreign intervention in the Ukraine conflict would be. The KMT in the battle of Shanghai managed to inflict 18,000-19,000 KIA, ~40,000 WIA and ~40,000 sick to the Japanese forces at the cost of 187,000 KIA and ~80,000 WIA. They stalled the Japanese advance in urban combat for 3+ months and required them to commit 300,000 men to eventually breakthrough. I sometimes find it amusing or interesting that the historical consensus is that the battle of Shanghai was a failure for the KMT. If the Ukrainian army ever manages to perform like the KMT in the battle of Shanghai, then the modern media would probably be calling it a Russian failure or a pyrrhic victory at least.
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