Today is the most critical day. If by the end of today Russia doesn't get 2 out of the below 3 item then they will be in grave danger:
- Mariupol entirely taken. The last few defenders don't need to be engaged in close combat, flatten with TOS-1 is now acceptable
- Pocket in East Ukraine is closed, we see a photo of two people, one standing in front of a vehicle with V and one with Z hugging each other
- Kharkiv defenders separated into several wedges
Putin waving the nuclear stick has bought them some more time, but if some of the above does not occur today and shatter Ukranian morale then Russia will be in serious danger. The die is cast.
The Mariupol one is pretty safe bet, the other two are dicy. If RuAF have any PGM left now is the time to use them, the future of Russia is at stake.