Ukrainian War Developments

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tamsen_ikard

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Well, Actually, I think the BIGGEST failure is NATO.
They actually lost one of the best opportunity to confront and defeat Russia, at minimal cost.
By yesterday when RuAF cleared the skies of Ukraine and established air superiority over the region, NATO actually lost their best time to intervene. Right now, any workable effort by NATO (without starting WW3) won't only be "添油战术".

Had NATO rapid reaction forces reached Ukrainian front right after Putin started the operation, they would have a change of confronting the Russian forces by just staring them down without really starting a war. Or, they should have stepped in when Russian forces are still on their way to their initial position, anytime during the first 3 days of battle. That would also result in a stare down with the Russian troops.

In fact, what you are saying, (that the West knew what Russia planned to do and yet didn't act) will simple confirm the fact that strategically, they lost their best chance to humiliate and deter Russia for decades.


Haha do you have any idea about military movements and war?

Nato doesn't even have more than 10 thousand force that they can bring to ukraine quickly. Even that so called rapid reaction force is miniscule compared to the force arrayed by Russia which 200 thousand plus. So, if they need to bring a sizable force it will need atleast a month. Moreover, Most of the Nato forces in places like Poland and Germany have poor readyness. They will need a couple of weeks to prepare and train first before they are ready for a fight.

Then comes bringing those forces by rail and Train. You can't move heavy Abrams tank armies by Plane. That will take another 2 months.

Nato is not ready for even a conventional fight with Russia right now.

But all of this discussion is pointless because Russia will not allow Nato to intervene without using Tactical nukes. So, there goes your Nato Army.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Today is the most critical day. If by the end of today Russia doesn't get 2 out of the below 3 item then they will be in grave danger:
  1. Mariupol entirely taken. The last few defenders don't need to be engaged in close combat, flatten with TOS-1 is now acceptable
  2. Pocket in East Ukraine is closed, we see a photo of two people, one standing in front of a vehicle with V and one with Z hugging each other
  3. Kharkiv defenders separated into several wedges
Putin waving the nuclear stick has bought them some more time, but if some of the above does not occur today and shatter Ukranian morale then Russia will be in serious danger. The die is cast.

The Mariupol one is pretty safe bet, the other two are dicy. If RuAF have any PGM left now is the time to use them, the future of Russia is at stake.
what do you mean "grave danger" and "future of russia at stake"? if it was so existential then Putin just needs to use some tactical nukes
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Today is the most critical day. If by the end of today Russia doesn't get 2 out of the below 3 item then they will be in grave danger:
  1. Mariupol entirely taken. The last few defenders don't need to be engaged in close combat, flatten with TOS-1 is now acceptable
  2. Pocket in East Ukraine is closed, we see a photo of two people, one standing in front of a vehicle with V and one with Z hugging each other
  3. Kharkiv defenders separated into several wedges
Putin waving the nuclear stick has bought them some more time, but if some of the above does not occur today and shatter Ukranian morale then Russia will be in serious danger. The die is cast.

The Mariupol one is pretty safe bet, the other two are dicy. If RuAF have any PGM left now is the time to use them, the future of Russia is at stake.
what do you make of the column at Kiev and can actions there make up for 2 or 3?
 

SimaQian

Junior Member
Registered Member
Timeline of Chinese evacuation:

  • December, 2021, US intelligence warns of Surprise Invasion of Ukraine.
  • 12 days before invasion,
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    :
    • US/UK evacuates all diplomatic staff from Ukraine, strongly encourages citizens to evacuate or face no help if conflict occurs.
  • 2 days before invasion,
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    :
    • Russia evacuates all diplomatic staff from Ukraine.
    • China says situation is "worsening", tells citizens to stockpile food/water/neccessities, but No Evacuation order for citizens/diplomats issued as 'peacekeepers' sent to Donetsk/Luhansk. (
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      )
  • <<Feb 24th, large-scale Russian invasion begins>>
    • China advises citizens to 'stay at home' and 'display Chinese Flags' to car to avoid getting attacked by Russian troops. (
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      )
  • 1 days AFTER invasion,
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    : China advises evacuation of citizens, "starts registering" for charter flights.
  • 3 days AFTER invasion,
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    : China tells citizens to NOT display any symbols (
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    ) and seeks alternatives to charter flights, including bus evacuation.
  • 4 days AFTER invasion, Feb 28th, first wave of 400 Chinese citizens evacuated out of almost 6,000 national.
This is an intelligence failure! Even
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that they had plans to evacuate citizens long long long before China did. If Putin gave big hints to Xi during Olympics,
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with China, and Chinese intelligence agency didn't do jack shit, then they really dropped the ball.
It was not an intelligence failure. It was very obvious the invasion is imminent. It was a deliberate decision on the Chinese side not to evacuate nationals before the firing as to save face with the Russians about what they are about to do and to show to the world, hey the Chinese have nothing to do with this. It is like saying, you dont want to abandon your number 1 strategic partner and major raw materials and energy supplier. Chinese nationals in Ukraine are just an unfortunate pawns of the game.
 
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Maikeru

Captain
Registered Member
It was not an intelligence failure. It was very obvious the invasion is imminent. It was a deliberate decision on the Chinese side not to evacuate nationals before the firing as to save face with the Russians about what they are about to do. It is like saying, you dont want to abandon your number 1 strategic partner and major raw materials and energy supplier. Chinese nationals in Ukraine are just an unfortunate pawns of the game.
Well now Chinese nationals know exactly how much their government cares about them. All for the sake of the temporary friendship of the Putin clown show.
 

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
Haha do you have any idea about military movements and war?

Nato doesn't even have more than 10 thousand force that they can bring to ukraine quickly. Even that so called rapid reaction force is miniscule compared to the force arrayed by Russia which 200 thousand plus. So, if they need to bring a sizable force it will need atleast a month. Moreover, Most of the Nato forces in places like Poland and Germany have poor readyness. They will need a couple of weeks to prepare and train first before they are ready for a fight.

Then comes bringing those forces by rail and Train. You can't move heavy Abrams tank armies by Plane. That will take another 2 months.

Nato is not ready for even a conventional fight with Russia right now.

But all of this discussion is pointless because Russia will not allow Nato to intervene without using Tactical nukes. So, there goes your Nato Army.

Well, it's a matter of perspectives.

Just like Putin took the risk to enter Ukraine. Nato chickened out and did NOT take the risk to confront Russian forces. To be clear about this, I am NOT saying that they can actually fight each other, because both side is nuclear armed with large numbers of warhead able to end entire human civilization once escalated. What I am saying is that NATO could simply send any of their readily available rapid reaction forces (doesn't need to be bigger than the Russian forces coming in) into Ukraine and stare Putin down. That's it. It's not unlike the Cuban Missile crisis: a simple game of stare and see who blinks first.

It's a game of guts and mental strength.
And sadly for the West and their cronies, they didn't have the guts and mental strength.

I know it's probably unfair to the decision makers in the West, because they had no way of knowing just how capable the Russian forces coming into Ukraine is, as well as how well (smoothly) their operations will proceed. It is a matter of luck and thus a gambling game. Putin DARED to take the risk and throw the dices. Therefore he deserves what he won.

Sometimes I don't really understand what you guys' logic is. It's like all you guys are dissing Russia and Putin for his lack of an adequately good hand of cards. It's like you are blaming Russia for being NOT strong enough.
But many times, people win big even without the biggest hand of cards. It's a matter of how you play your cards. In Putin's current endeavor in Ukraine, I think he actually won big without even a very good hand of cards. Because those who's playing against him, over estimated his hand, and also got surprised by his actions.
 

Maikeru

Captain
Registered Member
Well, it's a matter of perspectives.

Just like Putin took the risk to enter Ukraine. Nato chickened out and did NOT take the risk to confront Russian forces. To be clear about this, I am NOT saying that they can actually fight each other, because both side is nuclear armed with large numbers of warhead able to end entire human civilization once escalated. What I am saying is that NATO could simply send any of their readily available rapid reaction forces (doesn't need to be bigger than the Russian forces coming in) into Ukraine and stare Putin down. That's it. It's not unlike the Cuban Missile crisis: a simple game of stare and see who blinks first.

It's a game of guts and mental strength.
And sadly for the West and their cronies, they didn't have the guts and mental strength.

I know it's probably unfair to the decision makers in the West, because they had no way of knowing just how capable the Russian forces coming into Ukraine is, as well as how well (smoothly) their operations will proceed. It is a matter of luck and thus a gambling game. Putin DARED to take the risk and throw the dices. Therefore he deserves what he won.

Sometimes I don't really understand what you guys' logic is. It's like all you guys are dissing Russia and Putin for his lack of an adequately good hand of cards. It's like you are blaming Russia for being NOT strong enough.
But many times, people win big even without the biggest hand of cards. It's a matter of how you play your cards. In Putin's current endeavor in Ukraine, I think he actually won big without even a very good hand of cards. Because those who's playing against him, over estimated his hand, and also got surprised by his actions.
The Ukrainians had the guts and mental strength. In spades.
 
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