Ukrainian War Developments

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Suetham

Senior Member
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That moron Yanukovich can go **** himself. His incompetence and sheer Gorbachov level stupidity "helped" get us to this point.
It is true. Yanukovich was foolish to espouse the EU's argument not to go easy on the "protesters". And he had politicians within Ukraine itself plotting against him that he did absolutely nothing to contain. If the problem were resolved as in Kazakhstan, Putin would not be in this mess.
 

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
IMO, Russia will take Ukraine east of Dnipro river. Dnipro river cuts Kiev into two halves, a western half and a eastern half. Putin will likely install former Ukraine president Yanukovich as president of Russia backed East Ukraine which is east of Dnipro river.
I go along that same line of thought, the western side of the Dnieper River will become known as the country "Ukraine", while the entire east including the entire Black Sea coastal region will be incorporated into the Russian Federation.

As the Russians' objective is to capture Kiev, they will put a pro-Russian regime in the government of post-invasion Ukraine, even though it is a puppet government, the country will be fully demilitarized, with only Russian troops being able to deploy in the country.

The problem I see is how independent the new Kiev regime can be, to placate the pro-Western crowd of the new Ukraine, Moscow can probably give Ukraine some autonomy to join the EU but not NATO.

Or on the other side of the coin, the new post-invasion Kiev government will be a member of the State of the Union, as Belarus will be. Russia's level of economic dependence will be higher for not being able to join the EU, but I'm sure this could result in problems like Maidan, even considering that when this invasion is over, the Russians will clean up all the supporters they helped to overthrow President Yanukovych in 2014, if I had been a supporter of the 2014 revolution, I would have left the country from the first day of the invasion, because my name would surely be on the Kremlin's "list".
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I hope you're right, but Putin's predecessors does not give me much confidence.... Who's coming after Putin is still a wild card
Just FYI, liberal parties in Russia have <5% of the vote.

The biggest party is United Russia under Putin and Medvedev. This is a clear security state party. Don't think anyone is going to flip from here.

The 2nd biggest party is Communist Party of Russia. Chairman Gennady Zyuganov is an old school Soviet party member, soldier and physicist turned social scientist. He has explicitly endorsed actions in Ukraine, supports regaining the Soviet republics and is an open Stalinist. The deputy chairs are similar.

The 3rd biggest party is A Just Russia... a literal nationalist socialist party that endorses Putin.

The biggest liberal party is #5 New People with 13/450 Duma members and 7/4000 regional offices (!).

Russia is in absolutely no danger of flipping even without Putin.
 
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