Ukrainian War Developments

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nixdorf

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What, this is really a perfect opportunity for China. China has been wrecked with wars in 2000 years. They have whole department studying how to exploit crisis into opportunity! To give you an example just look back in April 2020 at the height of covid lockdowns. They readied an armada of fuel tankers to buy all oil at negative prices so much that China is choking with maritime traffic with oil ships. In a Chinese strategist mind, the first thing to do in a crisis is how to make money out of this. After the dust settles, all Russian assets and commodities will be priced just above free or maybe negative for oil. In fact I myself is reading to buy those Russian commodities, lol. This is just a classic warring states case. Just enjoy the show, eventually they will run out of supplies and everything will be bargained. So be ready for it.

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China may appear neutral on this war on paper, but secretly, in the strategists mind they want this to have maximum damage on both sides or even spill into whole europe. This is just too perfect. China will just mind its own business. In the end, there will be a great demand of Chinese goods after the war, and every commodities trader is waiting for the floodgates of Russian commodities to be at rock bottom prices.

And they are threatening to cut Russia from SWIFT. This is really gift wrapped from heaven. Russia will be forced to sell those commodities in RMB. Accelerating more RMB usage and exclusively to Chinese traders. This is a cashing moment. And whats more every China bashing have been forgotten. They bash now Putin.

I am not a fan of war and destruction, let face it, the sun will still shine tomorrow, we still need resources and raw materials. And Russia has plenty of those.
China is still too weak to take on the US/NATO/Japan, etc. by itself so it needs a strong Russia more than it needs cheap commodities. If Russia is too weak to open a European front, then the US will be all the more emboldened in the Pacific.
 

Helius

Senior Member
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What "toys" did Ukraine steal from Russia to justify invasion?

"Growing up together as siblings"...Soviet Union colonized Ukraine, doesn't seem like family relations to me. More like Dominatrix relations.

The irony is that Russia's invasion of Ukraine actually validates Ukraine's security concerns and desire to join NATO for protection.
You misread it the other way around. The "toys" in that analogy refer to Donbass and Crimea.

Still, I don't think it needs reminding the modern Ukrainian state as it exists today, just like the Russian Federation, came about as a result of the USSR's collapse.

I also don't think it need reminding the history since then that has led up to the present conflict.

I'm not gonna get into who's right and who's wrong since there's already been ceaseless debate about that.

So I'd just point out what you're saying is the Ukraine side of the argument. What you think is ironic from the Ukrainian perspective is suddenly less so from the Russian side when you consider it's no secret and well-documented that for years Putin's been telling the Ukrainian ruling establishment to stay out of NATO, and likewise to NATO "hands-off on Ukraine", or there'd be a reason for security concern where there ought to be none.

We all know how that went, and here we are.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
To support what this person said.

"And while the level of forces proved adequate for defeating the Ukrainian military, the whole idea in military operations is effectiveness, not efficiency. Military operations should not be run like businesses, which use predictable requirements and operating environments to minimize input costs. Combat, especially land combat, is one of the most unpredictable of human activities. It is inherently risky, with the risks usually resulting from factors that are improbable or cannot be foreseen. Therefore, sound logic dictates the need to minimize foreseeable risks before beginning any operations.

Planning military operations in war must take into account planning for the aftermath. Army and joint theater planning always presents requirements in a kind of four-step minuet: deployment—buildup—decisive operations—postconflict operations. Destruction of enemy forces on the battlefield creates a necessary—but not sufficient—condition for victory. Victory means not the defeat of the opposing army but rather winning the follow-through operation to accomplish the aims and intent of the plan."

comment from a retired military officer.
 

Laviduce

Junior Member
Registered Member
IMO, Russia will take Ukraine east of Dnipro river. Dnipro river cuts Kiev into two halves, a western half and a eastern half. Putin will likely install former Ukraine president Yanukovich as president of Russia backed East Ukraine which is east of Dnipro river.
That moron Yanukovich can go **** himself. His incompetence and sheer Gorbachov level stupidity "helped" get us to this point.
 

enroger

Junior Member
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Iran has $10k USD GDP per capita despite total sanctions. Russia can manage that just fine, as it has previously.

You also forget that Putin isn't just the individual Putin, he represents Russia's internal security state. Remember his background.

I hope you're right, but Putin's predecessors does not give me much confidence.... Who's coming after Putin is still a wild card
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
IMO, Russia will take Ukraine east of Dnipro river. Dnipro river cuts Kiev into two halves, a western half and a eastern half. Putin will likely install former Ukraine president Yanukovich as president of Russia backed East Ukraine which is east of Dnipro river.
Will they use drones?
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
At least Ukraine has good resources that will now be put to use, I still can never understand how such a big country somehow managed to be the poorest country in Europe beating Kosovo, that's the biggest mystery i still want to know.
Following Russia’s example, maybe?
 
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