Ukrainian War Developments

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Abominable

Major
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Completely agree. So many basic things that I'm not seeing.
  • Air superiority against UAF. Russians should have flooded Ukrainian airspace backed by AWACS to down any jet that took off from an air field. If they did this, we won't have those ridiculous propaganda rumors like ghost of kyiv or something. Day 2 and on-wards maintain that constant CAP with some jets. But I guess RuAF lacks enough air refueling planes to maintain the tempo from subsequent days.
  • Credible EW jets to conduct SEAD with anti-radiation missiles for any Ukraine SAM units that pop-up and survived the initial cruise missile strike from Day 1. This will give some cover for the helicopters to fly in low but those also risk from getting picked off by MANPADS.
  • Sufficient surveillance with drones to assist artillery and ground units.
  • Once air superiority is achieve, RuAF can bring in bombers to break Ukrainian backs.
We are not seeing none of this. Russia is fighting like it's a second rate military or they are underestimating the Ukrainians and are not fully employing their forces. It feels like they are employing some of the things they have or are not doing it properly.

All they are doing is throwing in ground units, backed by artillery. That strategy is risky and leads to many causalities for the Russians. It can decrease the morale of the Russian troops.

They can't win with long sieges. For Kyiv, they need to seize govt. buildings to induce some morale into their troops and end Ukrainians propaganda. Putin will be risking it if this war continues to drag on and becomes to feel like a stalemate. He will also be risking his presidency and personal future.

So many lessons for armchair generals to learn from lol :p
Why would they need bombers when they have multiple MRLS parked outside Kiev?

I've not seen any footage of Ukrainian tanks in or around Kiev. All I've seen are the STRELA 10s which were there for air defence.

In fact, I've seen very little barricades or defensive structures, not even sandbags. Civilian cars are driving around roads in Kiev. When are the Ukrainians planning on setting them up? No wonder they're shooting at each other, the defence seems to be very disorganised. I've seen videos of Ukrainians making Molotovs, but there is a reason insurgents used IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan. Anyone holding a Molotov will be filled with lead long before they get close to any convoy.

Ukrainian soldiers seem to be mostly without body armour, with most not even wearing helmets.

People talking about how taking Kiev is going to be a bloody battle like Grozny. I doubt Ukrainian civilians are suddenly going to start strapping suicide belts on and going out fedayeen style. It's one thing to pose with a gun and talk about dying for your country and another actually doing it.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Let's not easily believe the source

I can dress up in a nice suit and do the same but opposite too, like "the entire Ukrainian division has surrendered to Russia".

PLA is a conscript army. All Chinese dynasties including the mighty Qin, Han, Sui, Tang, (Mongol) Yuan and (Manchu) Qing dynasties use conscription only. The fault is not any type of recruitment, it is the lack of training and motivation which are all based on money except the spiritual part. A conscript in China get better paid than average person of same skill and education.
A Russian battalion is 800 soldiers. This is less believable than the ghost of Kiev story.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Imagine if Vietnam was about to sign MDT with US, had shipments of ABM on the way, courting military bases, started another purge of Chinese in Vietnam, shelled Guangxi, sponsored Imperial Japanese inspired fascist groups targeting Chinese, seized Chinese businesses?

Would Chinese act? If not, then China's already done.

China would not take over the whole country and install a puppet government. They tried that once in Ming Dynasty. Didn't work.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
The real question is would Russia be worth anything should that happen. In this worst case scenario there might be a second partition of Russia and potentially civil war.

That said I don't think China would allow the Russian economy to tank for this very reason. Creates too much instability up north.
Russia has well developed infrastructure and will become top food exporter.
Turkey behavior in the region is all it need to understand Russia economic strength.
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