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Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Wrong. You can change appearance.
You guys are talking like Russia already lost the war. So far, it seems the Russians have been fighting with one hand in its pocket. The force asymmetry is overwhelming in Russia's favor. Sure, they have shown many deficiencies during the war, mainly due to their lacking in industrial base capacity.
Even if we take a thousand step back and say that Russia lost the war somehow, they will do a negotiated settlement and the Ukrainians will be hard pressed to go to the West again as Russia can always come back. Putin has won wars in Georgia, Syria, Crimea and is highly popular. He also controls the media and can spin the narrative however he want to. The Chinese will backstop them economically, so I don't foresee a future where Putin will be ousted.
noone536
Junior Member
Completely agree. So many basic things that I'm not seeing.
We are not seeing none of this. Russia is fighting like it's a second rate military or they are underestimating the Ukrainians and are not fully employing their forces. It feels like they are employing some of the things they have or are not doing it properly.
- Air superiority against UAF. Russians should have flooded Ukrainian airspace backed by AWACS to down any jet that took off from an air field. If they did this, we won't have those ridiculous propaganda rumors like ghost of kyiv or something. Day 2 and on-wards maintain that constant CAP with some jets. But I guess RuAF lacks enough air refueling planes to maintain the tempo from subsequent days.
- Credible EW jets to conduct SEAD with anti-radiation missiles for any Ukraine SAM units that pop-up and survived the initial cruise missile strike from Day 1. This will give some cover for the helicopters to fly in low but those also risk from getting picked off by MANPADS.
- Sufficient surveillance with drones to assist artillery and ground units.
- Once air superiority is achieve, RuAF can bring in bombers to break Ukrainian backs.
All they are doing is throwing in ground units, backed by artillery. That strategy is risky and leads to many causalities for the Russians. It can decrease the morale of the Russian troops.
They can't win with long sieges. For Kyiv, they need to seize govt. buildings to induce some morale into their troops and end Ukrainians propaganda. Putin will be risking it if this war continues to drag on and becomes to feel like a stalemate. He will also be risking his presidency and personal future.
So many lessons for armchair generals to learn from lol
i said this from day one that the Russian have underestimated Ukraine or are ill prepare prob the former cause they had literally a year to prepare for this. the troop and equipment was amass a year ago then( yes i know he send troop back while leaving equipment but he eventually called them back.) the Russian will adjust very soon and do the thing that you have listed. by all account in Syria and Georgia, and etc had showed us that they do have such weapon and capability. like having just shoot 160 missile in the first day is just ridiculous low. having not already destroy communication of the Ukraine army by the 3rd is expecting trouble cause now enemy have time to regroup and bolster their ranks meaning you will need even more troop to be able to not only win but HOLD the country.
Copy and paste
"there is confirmed Russian takeovers in towns like Tokmak, with Russian troops spotted in both Berdyansk ( ) and as far as Osipenko which is very close to Mariupol. By roadways measurement, this is a whopping 250km from Crimea, which in about 2.5 days of operations so far averages to roughly 100km a day advance, which is unprecedented in history. I outlined in an earlier post that the famed German Blitzkrieg at its fastest reached 50km per day, averaging more realistically 9km over the course of operation. American blitz on Bagdad in 2003 averaged 22km per day, taking 3 weeks to cover 400km+ to cap Bagdad. So 250km for Russian thrust in 2.5 days is quite a remarkable operational success."
"there is confirmed Russian takeovers in towns like Tokmak, with Russian troops spotted in both Berdyansk ( ) and as far as Osipenko which is very close to Mariupol. By roadways measurement, this is a whopping 250km from Crimea, which in about 2.5 days of operations so far averages to roughly 100km a day advance, which is unprecedented in history. I outlined in an earlier post that the famed German Blitzkrieg at its fastest reached 50km per day, averaging more realistically 9km over the course of operation. American blitz on Bagdad in 2003 averaged 22km per day, taking 3 weeks to cover 400km+ to cap Bagdad. So 250km for Russian thrust in 2.5 days is quite a remarkable operational success."
All that costs money, which is hard to come by due to CAASTA.
I don't think anyone rational thinks that Russia would lose the war. Militarily its advantage against the Ukraine is too large. What rational people are thinking about is Russia could win the war (wait for it), but at what cost. Seriously. Territory is a fairly unimportant gauge of a nation's capabilities these days. Is the glory of reclaim old territory worth technological/economic blockades that could set a country back by several decades?
(Talking from China's perspective)
Russian economy is not worth that much even now. What China wants from Russia, is endless amounts of minerals, food, energy. Even if Russia suddenly became a $100 Billion economy (let's say without political instability), China wouldnt care because these resources will always be there and will always be exported to it.
Another important thing is their human capital. Don't underestimate this, they have vast numbers of engineers and scientists. (If they are poor) Given Chinese funding these people would rocket Chinese companies to new heights.
And this will be a great time to "gently" take Russia down a notch or two in Central Asia. They have been constantly interfering and blocking China's economic expansion there which directly affects integration of these economies and trade volumes.
In any case, as you said, China won't allow Russia to collapse
All these will now happen because Russia will get poorer from these sanctions and then become even more dependent on China. Especially the ultra-cheap resources would be very helpful in the competitiveness of the Chinese economy.
Keep in mind though that Xi is not an idiot. He will (as he should) take advantage of Russia's very weakened position BUT, he wont overdo it and he won't just set up a neocolonial-style arrangement. This will be a win-win. The only difference is that China's win will be bigger than Russia's win
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noone536
Junior Member
this really depends on the oligarch where the true power of any country really lies. even in Ukraine, same reason why zelensky can't leave.(it's how he got elected in the first place) if Ukraine loses to Russia all their oligarch stuff might get divided by Putin so they prob going to hang on as long as they can.
p.s can we not have a china discussion here. this war has nothing to do with china or Taiwan. and any implication should be talk about in another thread. i just want to come here and be more inform about the war and not hear about bunch of people who will stand on their own opinion in the matter of Taiwan.
Imagine if Vietnam was about to sign MDT with US, had shipments of ABM on the way, courting military bases, started another purge of Chinese in Vietnam, shelled Guangxi, sponsored Imperial Japanese inspired fascist groups targeting Chinese, seized Chinese businesses?
Would Chinese act? If not, then China's already done.
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