Ukrainian War Developments

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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
One of the reasons why the First Chechen War delivered a bloody nose to the Russian military is conscription. That led to the Russian military utilizing kontraktniki (contract soldiers) during the Second Chechen War. I highly doubt that the Russian military still uses battalions of conscripts in the modern era, especially when they are fighting in foreign territory.
Let's not easily believe the source

I can dress up in a nice suit and do the same but opposite too, like "the entire Ukrainian division has surrendered to Russia".

PLA is a conscript army. All Chinese dynasties including the mighty Qin, Han, Sui, Tang, (Mongol) Yuan and (Manchu) Qing dynasties use conscription only. The fault is not any type of recruitment, it is the lack of training and motivation which are all based on money except the spiritual part. A conscript in China get better paid than average person of same skill and education.
 

Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Russians don't have air superiority. I am actually extremely shocked by this.
Completely agree. So many basic things that I'm not seeing.
  • Air superiority against UAF. Russians should have flooded Ukrainian airspace backed by AWACS to down any jet that took off from an air field. If they did this, we won't have those ridiculous propaganda rumors like ghost of kyiv or something. Day 2 and on-wards maintain that constant CAP with some jets. But I guess RuAF lacks enough air refueling planes to maintain the tempo from subsequent days.
  • Credible EW jets to conduct SEAD with anti-radiation missiles for any Ukraine SAM units that pop-up and survived the initial cruise missile strike from Day 1. This will give some cover for the helicopters to fly in low but those also risk from getting picked off by MANPADS.
  • Sufficient surveillance with drones to assist artillery and ground units.
  • Once air superiority is achieve, RuAF can bring in bombers to break Ukrainian backs.
We are not seeing none of this. Russia is fighting like it's a second rate military or they are underestimating the Ukrainians and are not fully employing their forces. It feels like they are employing some of the things they have or are not doing it properly.

All they are doing is throwing in ground units, backed by artillery. That strategy is risky and leads to many causalities for the Russians. It can decrease the morale of the Russian troops.

They can't win with long sieges. For Kyiv, they need to seize govt. buildings to induce some morale into their troops and end Ukrainians propaganda. Putin will be risking it if this war continues to drag on and becomes to feel like a stalemate. He will also be risking his presidency and personal future.

So many lessons for armchair generals to learn from lol :p
 
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LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
Let's not easily believe the source

I can dress up in a nice suit and do the same but opposite too, like "the entire Ukrainian division has surrendered to Russia".

PLA is conscripted army. All Chinese dynasties including the Mongol Yuan and Manchu Qing dynasties use conscription. The fault is not any type of recruitment, it is the lack of training and motivation which are all based on money besides the spiritual part. A conscript in China get better paid than average person of same skill and education.
The PLA used to comprise of mainly conscripts, but if I remember correctly, they are shifting to a mainly volunteer force. Based on that, first tier and second tier units are all most likely filled with volunteers. However I do agree with the rest, and you do bring up a good point on the training aspect. Russia is poor and most likely cannot provide the adequate training for their troops, particularly their conscripts; and that is why using conscripts for front line work is either desperate or just dumb. In that shill’s case, he is most likely high on copium.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Completely agree. So many basic things that I'm not seeing.
  • Air superiority against UAF. Russians should flooded Ukrainian airspace backed by AWACS to down any jet that took off from an air field. If they did this, we won't have those ridiculous propaganda rumors like ghost of kyiv or something. Day 2 and on-wards maintain that constant CAP with some jets. But I guess RuAF lacks enough air refueling planes to maintain the tempo from subsequent days.
  • Credible EW jets to conduct SEAD with anti-radiation missiles for any Ukraine SAM units that pop-up and survived the initial cruise missile strike from Day 1. This will give some cover for the helicopters to fly in low but those also risk from getting picked off by MANPADS.
  • Sufficient surveillance with drones to assist artillery and ground units.
  • Once air superiority is achieve, RuAF can bring in bombers to break Ukrainian backs.
We are not seeing none of this. Russia is fighting like it's a second rate military or they are underestimating the Ukrainians and are not fully employing their forces. It feels like they are employing some of the things they have or are not doing it properly.

All they are doing is throwing in ground units, backed by artillery. That strategy is risky and leads to many causalities for the Russians. It can decrease the morale of the Russian troops.

They can't win with long sieges. For Kyiv, they need to seize govt. buildings to induce some morale into their troops and end Ukrainians propaganda. Putin will be risking it if this war continues to drag on and becomes to feel like a stalemate. He will also be risking his presidency and personal future.

So many lessons for armchair generals to learn from lol :p

Ghost of Kyiv was based on... video game footage. This is Jai Hind level delusion. You realize that US attacking from 2 sides could not stop Iraqi Migs from taking off weeks into Desert Storm?

Remember people thought Armenia was winning too until they weren't.

Russian Army is still holding back its artillery... but not for long, as seen by the 203 mm's being brought in. You mistake actual mistakes, for political constraints.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Oh please present some evidence in that one
It's based on videos I saw on r/CombatFootage. There was a video of three Russians recovering in a hospital who claimed they only received a month and a half of training and had no idea they would be sent to fight in Ukraine. All just young boys. There was another video of a captured 21 year old tank crewman.

Of course, these just small circumstantial samples. There's not that much material to go by. Some of the stuff turns out to be fake/old and gets removed from the board. That reddit is one of the most trustworthy documentaries out there at the moment.
 
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anzha

Senior Member
Registered Member
Let's not easily believe the source

I agree with this. I would not have posted except for the videos of Russian soldiers who are quite young who are clearly having a nervous breakdown. In a couple cases, it made me want to grab the kid (OMG I am getting old) and yell at the Ukrainians.

I can dress up in a nice suit and do the same but opposite too, like "the entire Ukrainian division has surrendered to Russia".

I've seen those posts here, too, here, but not from you in a suit. ;)
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
If this war fails and if Russian economy tanks as a result of sanctions, then Reverse Nixon becomes even more possible as Putin is pushed out of office.

The real question is would Russia be worth anything should that happen. In this worst case scenario there might be a second partition of Russia and potentially civil war.

That said I don't think China would allow the Russian economy to tank for this very reason. Creates too much instability up north.
 
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