Some thoughts before the dawn of day three.
2. The Russians have made more progress today. Still not as much as I would have expected, especially from the southern, seemingly relatively unopposed army units. However, still, 2nd day. Need to chill.
The Southwest advance stalled because the Ukrainians blew up a bridge to Odessa. The Russians sent a marine amphibious assault, so it will still get taken eventually regardless.
3. WTF is the Russian air force? The Ukrainians are still in the air. Even if the Russians are being careful to minimize casualties, they really ought to have swept the Ukrainians from the skies. That's absolutely not the case.
The Iraqis also had MiG-25 aircraft flying quite late into the 2003 Iraq war. You basically hide the aircraft, outside air bases, and only take them out later in the game. MiG-29 is good for this because it has good acceleration and turn rate being ideal point fighter. But their missile stocks are likely extremely limited and their sensors and weapon packages are crap.
4. Lack of UAVs is really, really telling. The Georgians used them when they faced off with the RUssians and they were quite effective. One of the take aways from the conflict was the Russians needed to work on their own. That's the origin of the Orion and Ohotnik. The persistent and relatively cheap recon would have been a wildly useful. And, yet, as other users have pointed out, all we seem to see are crickets sounds when it comes to the buzzing of the drones.
The Russians don't have that many drones and they don't need to use them in this conflict. They are using attack helicopters.
5. The Russians still had not moved more than 1/2 the forces they had arrayed against the Ukrainians, probably 1/3. I get not committing everything at once, but...I can't help but feel discomfort with this. Overwhelming force has been a military axiom for a long time. With 3x the forces, they could have rolled up Kharkov and the Donbass much faster. yet, again, they have not. Then again, it is only end of day 2.
It is still way too early.
6. There are hints of some logistics issues for the Russians. They may be false hints, but it might explain why the Russians are not moving as fast as many expected. Then again, still, just 2nd day.
I think it has nothing to do with logistics. This seems to be techniques they developed in Syria in counter insurgency warfare.
7. The Ukrainians are tenacious. They continue to do far better than what I would have ever thought. It doesn't mean they are not doomed.
Unfortunately they aren't giving up and the fog of war makes people think they haven't had major casualties. But so far the burnt wrecks I have seen paint a quite lopsided picture.
8. There are also hints the Russians need to wrap this up. Not today, or even a week from now, but the world is starting to react and if the Americans and Western Europeans dump billions of dollars and Euros of weapons into Ukrainian hands, then with the tenacity of the Ukrainians, assuming they continue to snarl like a rosomakha in the face of medvedi, this could be a serious problem long term for the Russians.
You can't just hand over weapons to civilians and hope they will fight well. That is just unreasonable and results in disaster.
Tomorrow will dawn soon in Kiev. Will Kiev fall? Will the Russians get their roll-up of Ukraine in 72 hours? Will they get it in a week? or...?
One of the analysts said Sunday. I thought it was too soon, but with them already at the capital, near Mariupol and Odessa, who knows.
Even under Russia's veto, a large number of ambassadors to the UN will take the Albania-US Resolution to the General Assembly. They are overriding the Russian veto. The General Assembly meeting can take place tomorrow.
The General Assembly has passed more resolutions against Israel than I can count and they always aren't worth the paper they are printed on because Daddy US vetos it in the Security Council. Two can play that game.