Ukrainian War Developments

Rare to see this typ of confession from the National Interest about the USA.

From this point forward, the Ukrainian government began to fracture. The Maidan Square movement increasingly took on a revolutionary air with the United States openly fanning the flames of opposition to Yanukovych, the elected president. Notwithstanding Article 41 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations which calls for diplomats “not to interfere in ... internal affairs,” the U.S. assistant secretary of state for European affairs openly appeared in December 2018 on Maidan Square with the US ambassador. They encouraged peaceful protest against the elected government in power, even handing out

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to the demonstrators and security forces.

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drowingfish said:

i wonder if europe can really wait until the next winter. current storage is already depleted with gas price still quite high, and europe's inflation is at record levels like everywhere else. interestingly enough EU economy is also staring at a potential slowdown. So if energy price is not relieved by additional supply through nord stream 2, coupled with upcoming rate raises, EU could enter stagflation by next year.

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Europe can close more factories and conserve. Europe Auto factories are practically closed untill mid January anyway.
I dont believe this green energy being responsible. Europe simply not have technical manpower for new nuclear plants or expand coal production at reasonable price.
Europe will have to pick its poison. Either Russian gas or Asian products at inflated prices.
for example. If Chinese make more money exporting Tesla and other automobiles. There will be less need for Chinese to put its labor on manufacturing Apple products. Chinese can jackup the prices of Apple products.
Only Chinese trains goes to Europe. There are no direct trains from India/Indonesia/Japan.

There is enought capacity in Europe to build as many NPP as they wish.


It is not an overly complicated process, and it is easy to make new machines.

There is practically zero chance of mass production NPP in Europe.
Ukraine trying to keep its old NPP afloat with Westinghouse.
An-178 for Peru late due to waiting for parts. and they are only 1 built at a time and that is Aviation which is supposed to be strong point of Europe. Europe will always need to wait for Asian parts to complete a product.

I see a lot of high level pontificating in the thread. It's not unexpected, to be sure. This is the internet and there is always someone wrong on it: the contrarians leap to correct the 'wrong.'

I am deeply curious how many people have been to Ukraine. Anyone gone to Kiev? Or Dontesk? Mauripol? Kharkov? Sevastapol or Yalta?

What triggered the question, though, was seeing posters stating Taiwan and Ukraine are the exactly same thing for China and Russia respectively.

Europe new reactor design, the EPR, is a bust. It is overly complicated to build and really expensive.
Westinghouse's AP1000 is much simpler to build and should supposedly be cheaper. But the US supply chain can't make the components reliably, on cost, or on time.

Ukraine is supposed to get two AP1000 reactors which were cancelled in the US for being over budget and over time. The US Summer nuclear reactors. Only the US Vogtle AP1000 reactor project is still ongoing but at massive cost and time overrun.

anzha said:

I see a lot of high level pontificating in the thread. It's not unexpected, to be sure. This is the internet and there is always someone wrong on it: the contrarians leap to correct the 'wrong.'

I am deeply curious how many people have been to Ukraine. Anyone gone to Kiev? Or Dontesk? Mauripol? Kharkov? Sevastapol or Yalta?

What triggered the question, though, was seeing posters stating Taiwan and Ukraine are the exactly same thing for China and Russia respectively.

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I dont think anyone has to go to kiev to know that Taiwan and Ukraine are not the same in relation to china and russia lol. but I do get why people would make that comparison.

pmc said:

Europe can close more factories and conserve. Europe Auto factories are practically closed untill mid January anyway.
I dont believe this green energy being responsible. Europe simply not have technical manpower for new nuclear plants or expand coal production at reasonable price.
Europe will have to pick its poison. Either Russian gas or Asian products at inflated prices.
for example. If Chinese make more money exporting Tesla and other automobiles. There will be less need for Chinese to put its labor on manufacturing Apple products. Chinese can jackup the prices of Apple products.
Only Chinese trains goes to Europe. There are no direct trains from India/Indonesia/Japan.

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auto factory closures were not due to energy price it was due to chip shortage.

but yes if energy price remains elevated throughout Europe, that will exert additional inflationary pressure across the atlantic, since western europe is a major trading partner with the US.

i would discount the chinese trains, its good stuff but too small in volume to make a difference for EU.

anzha said:

I see a lot of high level pontificating in the thread. It's not unexpected, to be sure. This is the internet and there is always someone wrong on it: the contrarians leap to correct the 'wrong.'

I am deeply curious how many people have been to Ukraine. Anyone gone to Kiev? Or Dontesk? Mauripol? Kharkov? Sevastapol or Yalta?

What triggered the question, though, was seeing posters stating Taiwan and Ukraine are the exactly same thing for China and Russia respectively.

Click to expand...

I see many similarities between Ukraine and Taiwan. There are differences of course - the initial Ukrainian creation was by politicians rather than a military junta as in the case of Taiwan. That was rectified of course with the "Orange revolution". Moreover Taiwan has moved away from absolute authoritarianism while Ukraine moves closer to it.

Ultimately both were created by the uprooting of the autochthonous population by an outside group who then claimed themselves to be the natives. In Ukraine it was the Crimean Tatar, and in Taiwan it is the Taiwanese aborigine.

I haven't been to Ukraine, but I can't imagine what you think I would see there that would make me change my mind. Perhaps you can enlighten us?

Russia recognizes Ukraine as an independent and sovereign nation, but perhaps wants to restore the "vassal-overlord" relationship, whereas China-Taiwan is part of an unresolved Civil War with both sides claiming to be "China" and Taiwan having almost zero diplomatic recognition by any important power.

So I think Ukraine is to Russia as Vietnam is to China. A strategic buffer zone that historically has ties as ex-colony of each power. A sphere of influence.... Taiwan isn't sphere of influence, it's a core part of Chinese sovereignty.