Ukrainian War Developments

drowingfish said:

auto factory closures were not due to energy price it was due to chip shortage.

but yes if energy price remains elevated throughout Europe, that will exert additional inflationary pressure across the atlantic, since western europe is a major trading partner with the US.

i would discount the chinese trains, its good stuff but too small in volume to make a difference for EU.

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i mean factories are already closed and still energy prices are keep getting higher. EU industrial production is down ward spiral.

Chinese trains already transporting high value goods. and Chinese construction will shorten time for road transport.
I will not be surprized if 25% or more of Airbus production is from China.

Ukraine is stuck looking in the wrong place. The US has never prioritized SAM development, it doesn't fit their doctrine. Even if Ukraine can quickly source SAM systems, that's not going to be a major factor. If Russia actually wants to follow-through, any IADS can be countered with sufficient effort.

The question remains, does Russia actually want to follow through? I doubt it. They've proposed a new treaty which will obviously get rejected by NATO. But it will probably elicit a counter-offer and further negotiations, which is probably Russia's actual objective for now.

Mohsin77 said:

The question remains, does Russia actually want to follow through? I doubt it. They've proposed a new treaty which will obviously get rejected by NATO. But it will probably elicit a counter-offer and further negotiations, which is probably Russia's actual objective for now.

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Overbom said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1473251351144632321

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Again, "military-technical action" isn't an ultimatum for war, just like the last article you posted wasn't. It was referring to abandoning the INF treaty, which also qualifies as "military-technical action" because it deals with deployment. The language is intentionally vague, but you're trying to interpret it decisively.

There's a lot of factors at play here and very few of those favor war e.g. the Nord-Stream 2 pipeline is due to come online in 2022 at a time of surging gas prices. If Russia launches this war, all that capital investment is gone, while the EU would face extreme gas shortages. Russia is relying more on resource-diplomacy than its military. Small scale actions on Ukraine versus a multi-divisional war are different orders-of-magnitude in escalation + cost + risk. Russia won't pull the trigger on the latter, unless all other options are exhausted, and right now Russia still has options. This is why Russia is posturing and preparing at the same time. If it had already decided on war, there would be no posturing.

The US is cooking up a provocation with "chemical components"? America has zero creativity.
Anyone else remembers Assad's "chemical attack" in Syria lol

"We have nowhere further to retreat"

Interesting, they still fixated on Ukraine, like if that is the soft belly of the USA.

What happens if they pay few hundred million barrel of oil to Cuba and station there Zircons with nuclear warheads ?

How they will react for that ?

The remarks of Russia pointing to that answer , not for same high cost, doesn't make sense military campain.

escobar said:

Exclusive: U.S. could hit Russia phone, aircraft part imports if it invades Ukraine

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Lol. Please do. The Russian government has been trying to convince Russian airline operators to switch to Russian built aircraft for years with limited success. Even Aeroflot, which is state owned, mostly uses the Superjets they do have in a separate branch of theirs called Rossiya Airlines. Russia can satisfy most of their aircraft demand with native built types like the Superjet and MC-21 which will have all indigenous components in a couple of years. Towards the end of the decade they will be able to replace their largest types with the CR929. All they need is some way to force Russian airlines to switch to Russian aircraft. So please do sanction aircraft parts imports. Russia is also one of the world's largest suppliers of both titanium and aluminium metal parts with Boeing being one of their largest customers. Not to mention that Russia can simply close their airspace and force other nations who want to travel from Europe to Asia to go the long way around and make flights twice as expensive. With regards to phones who cares. Most of the latest chips are fluff anyway. And China can manufacture all the phones Russia needs. Who knows, Russia might even finally get a push to modernize its semiconductor fabrication and smartphone manufacturing on their own soil.

KYIV, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) agreed to restore a full ceasefire between the Ukrainian government forces and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, the OSCE said on Wednesday.

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Considering that the west ukrainans shoots the russian speakers in the east, from areas where russian speakers living we can cosider it as the ukrainan regime was forced to stop to shoot the russian speakers .


I started to map out the possible answer of Russia .

The USA target is to bring the war to the Russian border, and destabilise the surrounding of them, bad luck for the EU is Ukraine has borders with they as well.

Now, it doesn't make sense to play with the USA game, the capital could be spent on better place.

1. Syria-iraq-iran. Maybe naval bases on the shores of the ocean ,and another inland, in Iran ? start massive scale military campaign against the ISIS , to liberate Iraq and Syria kurd populated parts, and establish the control of the Iraninan /sysrian goverment above the area, including Iraq ?

2. Establish permanent bases in Venezuela and Cuba, with military/ economical help
3. Deploy INF weapons everywhere, including kaliningrad, Cuba, Venezuela, Syria and IRan . Maybe Serbia ?
4. Give acces to China to the trans-syberian railway, to deploy troops to IRan / Iraq, and to establish permanent base there . It is the most risky. Maybe shared bases in Cuba ?