Ukrainian War Developments

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reservior dogs

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Anlsvrthng said:
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Considering that the west ukrainans shoots the russian speakers in the east, from areas where russian speakers living we can cosider it as the ukrainan regime was forced to stop to shoot the russian speakers .


I started to map out the possible answer of Russia .

The USA target is to bring the war to the Russian border, and destabilise the surrounding of them, bad luck for the EU is Ukraine has borders with they as well.

Now, it doesn't make sense to play with the USA game, the capital could be spent on better place.

1. Syria-iraq-iran. Maybe naval bases on the shores of the ocean ,and another inland, in Iran ? start massive scale military campaign against the ISIS , to liberate Iraq and Syria kurd populated parts, and establish the control of the Iraninan /sysrian goverment above the area, including Iraq ?

2. Establish permanent bases in Venezuela and Cuba, with military/ economical help
3. Deploy INF weapons everywhere, including kaliningrad, Cuba, Venezuela, Syria and IRan . Maybe Serbia ?
4. Give acces to China to the trans-syberian railway, to deploy troops to IRan / Iraq, and to establish permanent base there . It is the most risky. Maybe shared bases in Cuba ?
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At the end of the day, it all comes down to how much money the Russians have. Ukraine is like a festering sore. It is in Russia's interest to at least minimize the impact of the festering sore before doing other things.

Regarding Syria/Iran, Russia got 90% of what they want out of that area now. They have a lot of areas inside Russia that needed to spend their money on building up. Why would they spend their precious money there?

Cuba and Venezuela, these places are just too far away from Russia for them to extend their power. The U.S. can always pull the hand out of our back pocket and do a regime change and Russia would lose everything.

At the end, with the economy the size of Italy, there is only so much they can do.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Anlsvrthng said:
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Considering that the west ukrainans shoots the russian speakers in the east, from areas where russian speakers living we can cosider it as the ukrainan regime was forced to stop to shoot the russian speakers .


I started to map out the possible answer of Russia .

The USA target is to bring the war to the Russian border, and destabilise the surrounding of them, bad luck for the EU is Ukraine has borders with they as well.

Now, it doesn't make sense to play with the USA game, the capital could be spent on better place.

1. Syria-iraq-iran. Maybe naval bases on the shores of the ocean ,and another inland, in Iran ? start massive scale military campaign against the ISIS , to liberate Iraq and Syria kurd populated parts, and establish the control of the Iraninan /sysrian goverment above the area, including Iraq ?

2. Establish permanent bases in Venezuela and Cuba, with military/ economical help
3. Deploy INF weapons everywhere, including kaliningrad, Cuba, Venezuela, Syria and IRan . Maybe Serbia ?
4. Give acces to China to the trans-syberian railway, to deploy troops to IRan / Iraq, and to establish permanent base there . It is the most risky. Maybe shared bases in Cuba ?
Click to expand...

If you just read Western media, it's all Russia threatening to invade Ukraine. What then, is this ceasefire all about? How do you have a ceasefire without firing shots?
 
A

ansy1968

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Registered Member
solarz said:
If you just read Western media, it's all Russia threatening to invade Ukraine. What then, is this ceasefire all about? How do you have a ceasefire without firing shots?
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@solarz Sir next year after experiencing a bitter winter, The West especially the US will want to escalate again cause for them a threat from Russia is a way to tightened the leash on EU.
 
A

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
reservior dogs said:
At the end of the day, it all comes down to how much money the Russians have. Ukraine is like a festering sore. It is in Russia's interest to at least minimize the impact of the festering sore before doing other things.

Regarding Syria/Iran, Russia got 90% of what they want out of that area now. They have a lot of areas inside Russia that needed to spend their money on building up. Why would they spend their precious money there?

Cuba and Venezuela, these places are just too far away from Russia for them to extend their power. The U.S. can always pull the hand out of our back pocket and do a regime change and Russia would lose everything.

At the end, with the economy the size of Italy, there is only so much they can do.
Click to expand...
Target is to decrease the cost of defend the homeland.


Shipping few million barell of oil to Cuba or Venesuela won't damage the prospect of Russia, and inserting tripwire russian soldiers and few INF unit will make it very hard to conduct color revolution .

At the moment Russia has trade surpluss, means there is lot of way to put that money to work without affecting the home budget.


Target could be in Syria is to get full control of that country AND Iraq as well, and afterwards create a syria-iraq-iran landblock, that makes next to impossible to penetrate Iran with aircrafts.
 
O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
reservior dogs said:
At the end of the day, it all comes down to how much money the Russians have. Ukraine is like a festering sore. It is in Russia's interest to at least minimize the impact of the festering sore before doing other things.

Regarding Syria/Iran, Russia got 90% of what they want out of that area now. They have a lot of areas inside Russia that needed to spend their money on building up. Why would they spend their precious money there?

Cuba and Venezuela, these places are just too far away from Russia for them to extend their power. The U.S. can always pull the hand out of our back pocket and do a regime change and Russia would lose everything.

At the end, with the economy the size of Italy, there is only so much they can do.
Click to expand...
People here talk about economics, politics, social impact etc and dismiss Russia's willingless to out right attack Ukraine if needed

I still haven't heard a counter argument on why Russia would ever accept NATO arming Ukraine to the teeth. Ukraine is literally next to Russia. By employing such tactics NATO can divert Russia's military + diplomatic resources towards Ukraine which NATO would love. This would limit Russia outreach towards many regions, giving the opportunity for the West to expand its influence there

This is similar to Taiwan with China. The West is managing to constrain China's diplomatic capital towards Taiwan. The only difference now is that while China grows, it can inevitably give more attention to other regions

I really doubt that Putin would accept a similar situation to arise in Ukraine. Which is why I believe that unless the West provides solid guarantees, Russia will attack Ukraine

The game now is all about diplomacy. If that fails, the bear will use its claws
 
A

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Overbom said:
People here talk about economics, politics, social impact etc and dismiss Russia's willingless to out right attack Ukraine if needed

I still haven't heard a counter argument on why Russia would ever accept NATO arming Ukraine to the teeth. Ukraine is literally next to Russia. By employing such tactics NATO can divert Russia's military + diplomatic resources towards Ukraine which NATO would love. This would limit Russia outreach towards many regions, giving the opportunity for the West to expand its influence there

This is similar to Taiwan with China. The West is managing to constrain China's diplomatic capital towards Taiwan. The only difference now is that while China grows, it can inevitably give more attention to other regions

I really doubt that Putin would accept a similar situation to arise in Ukraine. Which is why I believe that unless the West provides solid guarantees, Russia will attack Ukraine

The game now is all about diplomacy. If that fails, the bear will use its claws
Click to expand...
Doesn't make sense to attack Ukraine.

That is what the USA push for.
That is not the interest of Russia.

Ukraine require lot of resources, reunification would be the same burden to the Russian budget like the German reunification. Or more, considering Ukraine took lot of international loan in the meantime .

Start a war means the USA sucesfully took to Russia doorstep the conflict.


Easier to do the same that the USA did : pushing the masses into the parlament with paid mercanaries and leaders.


All that it takes is few month in -20 degree without heating in Kiev.
 
O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Anlsvrthng said:
Doesn't make sense to attack Ukraine.

That is what the USA push for.
That is not the interest of Russia.

Ukraine require lot of resources, reunification would be the same burden to the Russian budget like the German reunification. Or more, considering Ukraine took lot of international loan in the meantime .

Start a war means the USA sucesfully took to Russia doorstep the conflict.


Easier to do the same that the USA did : pushing the masses into the parlament with paid mercanaries and leaders.


All that it takes is few month in -20 degree without heating in Kiev.
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Who said about unification?
Russia could attack to force negotiations and then pull back

It isn't Russia attacks -> annexes Ukraniam territory. There are other ways for Russia to get what it wants
 
J

Janiz

Senior Member
solarz said:
If you just read Western media, it's all Russia threatening to invade Ukraine. What then, is this ceasefire all about? How do you have a ceasefire without firing shots?
Click to expand...
Love reading from our well informed posters and experts on all matters possible:
  • In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 354 ceasefire violations, including 215 explosions. In the previous 24 hours, it recorded 43 ceasefire violations in the region.

  • In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 229 ceasefire violations, including 219 explosions. In the previous 24 hours, it recorded one ceasefire violation in the region.

  • Small-arms fire was assessed as directed at SMM mini-unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) near government-controlled Talakivka and non-government-controlled Vesele, Donetsk region; the former UAV was lost due to shooting, the latter was damaged due to signal interference, and a third UAV flying near non-government-controlled Petrivske, was lost due to signal interference.
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