It is not country mind reading, but the summary of the biggest issue in Europe :
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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A self inflicted wound. Coal is dirty, but losing some industries due to higher energy prices is worse. A good policy should be to have power generation plants that uses different types of fuel, so scarcity in one type of fuel won't kill your industries.
I dont see that happening in a million years. Btw a legal treaty requires a US Senate super majority (lol)
So all that remains is when the war will start
It's not at all clear whether this war will start at all, yet.
This could easily be a bluff by Russia, or a case of testing the water. I'm skeptical of execution, because I think if Russia was going to launch, they would've quickly mobilized and pulled the trigger, instead of telegraphing their moves and giving its opponents all this free time. Compare what Russia is doing right now with how China executed Ladakh. China picked the right time, quickly mobilized, and executed before anyone even figured out what was happening. By the time India started crying for diplomatic support, China had already achieved it's objective on the ground.
With that said, we should keep an eye on the +/- force levels, starting in February, especially on its air bases. Artillery played a bigger role last time in a smaller conflict. But this time, if this is a multi-divisional war that Russia is planning, air assets will be the decisive factor. We need to keep an eye on satt images of its air bases:
This is Saki from back in April:
And Morozovsk:
This could easily be a bluff by Russia, or a case of testing the water. I'm skeptical of execution, because I think if Russia was going to launch, they would've quickly mobilized and pulled the trigger, instead of telegraphing their moves and giving its opponents all this free time. Compare what Russia is doing right now with how China executed Ladakh. China picked the right time, quickly mobilized, and executed before anyone even figured out what was happening. By the time India started crying for diplomatic support, China had already achieved it's objective on the ground.
With that said, we should keep an eye on the +/- force levels, starting in February, especially on its air bases. Artillery played a bigger role last time in a smaller conflict. But this time, if this is a multi-divisional war that Russia is planning, air assets will be the decisive factor. We need to keep an eye on satt images of its air bases:
This is Saki from back in April:
And Morozovsk:
The U.S. does not really want a war. Noticed after meeting with Putin, Biden was talking about sanctions, which is a pretty weak response. He also explicitly said no U.S. troops to Ukraine. Putin does not really want a war. The current situation on the ground suits him just fine. He already achieved the limited military objectives the last time around. The Ukrainians is like a poodle performing for the U.S. They know it would be disastrous if a war really breaks out. By now, all hope of joining NATO should already be gone. The most likely outcome is a stalemate. This cost Russia something, but it is economically a disaster for Ukraine, so they will have to end this mobilization at some point. Maybe there will be some diplomatic maneuver to help Ukraine climb down from the build up, but at some point, the economic strain of the build up will mean the Ukrainians will have to end this somehow.It's not at all clear whether this war will start at all, yet.
This could easily be a bluff by Russia, or a case of testing the water. I'm skeptical of execution, because I think if Russia was going to launch, they would've quickly mobilized and pulled the trigger, instead of telegraphing their moves and giving its opponents all this free time. Compare what Russia is doing right now with how China executed Ladakh. China picked the right time, quickly mobilized, and executed before anyone even figured out what was happening. By the time India started crying for diplomatic support, China had already achieved it's objective on the ground.
With that said, we should keep an eye on the +/- force levels, starting in February, especially on its air bases. Artillery played a bigger role last time in a smaller conflict. But this time, if this is a multi-divisional war that Russia is planning, air assets will be the decisive factor. We need to keep an eye on satt images of its air bases:
This is Saki from back in April:
And Morozovsk:
Told you guys. If the US won't agree to Russia's demands then Russia will go to war.
Let's go
Let's go
Nord stream won't be operational before 2nd half of 2022
At the same time the EU want to forbid long term gas suply contract beyond 2050.
There is a serious mismatch in the payout matrix.
The EU considering Russia as captive suplier, but the Russians investing the money into the eastern gas infrastructure, and the west one now has less capacity tha the home+EU demand.
So, EU say:
If you fullfill all of our political requirements, support ukraine with money and use only the spot market and don't expect long term contracts then you can sell your gas to keep our energy prices low
Russia say :
I don't want to invest more capacity to serve the EU market , only if you take long term obligations. Without those the investment funds will go the the Chinese supply infrastructure.
This is a typical example of the mismatch between the two party.
At the same time the EU want to forbid long term gas suply contract beyond 2050.
There is a serious mismatch in the payout matrix.
The EU considering Russia as captive suplier, but the Russians investing the money into the eastern gas infrastructure, and the west one now has less capacity tha the home+EU demand.
So, EU say:
If you fullfill all of our political requirements, support ukraine with money and use only the spot market and don't expect long term contracts then you can sell your gas to keep our energy prices low
Russia say :
I don't want to invest more capacity to serve the EU market , only if you take long term obligations. Without those the investment funds will go the the Chinese supply infrastructure.
This is a typical example of the mismatch between the two party.
@Anlsvrthng Yup let German suffer a cold cold winter then blame the Russian, increase the price and wallah a successful profitable venture, this agreement is between Russia and Germany only, why would other country under EU had a say or a veto and why would the German abide to EU decision contrary to their interest is insane. I love how Western style capitalism function all for Profit and dammed the consumer, the reason why Russia is always being used as a scapegoat and a bogeyman.
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