Ukrainian War Developments

Weaasel said:

With regards to believing that the Ukrainians would capitulate as soon as the Russians showed up at suburbs of Kiev, I wonder if that was truly Putin's initial belief or he was convinced by others that it would be so, and also I wonder the extent of deliberations that took place with regards to that plan and who were the dissenting voices with regards to it.

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I think Putin may have thought that putting pressure in Kiev would help with his negotiations, but clearly it didn't work. It still pretty dumb idea though, don't they intel gathering assets in Ukraine to assess the military's morale and conviction? Also are negotiations still happening after their retreat from the Kiev front?

"While the battle continued, another savage onslaught was going on. It was grim and personal.
The hordes of Russian troops coming up behind the disciplined front-line veterans now demanded the rights
due the conqueror: the women of the conquered."
--Cornelius Ryan in _The Last Battle_


"Rape as a weapon: huge scale of sexual violence endured in Ukraine emerges."

"Women across are grappling with the threat of rape as a weapon of war as growing evidence of sexual violence
emerges from areas retaken from retreating Russian forces."

"Particularly difficult for many to comprehend is the scale of the sexual violence. As Russian troops have withdrawn from towns
and suburbs around the capital in order to refocus the war effort on Ukraine’s east, women and girls have come forward to tell the
police, media and human rights organisations of atrocities they have suffered at the hands of Russian soldiers. Gang-rapes, assaults
taking place at gunpoint, and rapes committed in front of children are among the grim testimonies collected by investigators."

"Antonina Medvedchuk, 31, said that when she woke up to the sound of bombing on the day the war broke out, the first things
she grabbed before leaving Kyiv were condoms and scissors to use as a weapon to protect herself.
“Every break between curfew and bombing I was looking for emergency contraception instead of a basic first aid kit,” she said.
“My mother tried to reassure me: ‘This is not a war like that, they don’t exist anymore, they are from old movies.’
I have been a feminist for eight years, and I cried in silence, because all wars are like this.”

The experiences of war go far beyond counting the rivets.

Weaasel said:

What you describe shows the incredible extent of hubris of the Russians. JUST. INCREDIBLE.

With regards to believing that the Ukrainians would capitulate as soon as the Russians showed up at suburbs of Kiev, I wonder if that was truly Putin's initial belief or he was convinced by others that it would be so, and also I wonder the extent of deliberations that took place with regards to that plan and who were the dissenting voices with regards to it.

The whole operation on the western side of the Dnieper River was undermanned, under-resourced, under-supplied, under-protected, over-rushed, and over ambitious. Even without the benefit of hindsight it boggles the mind as to how the Russians could have drank that cool aid. It shows the extent to which they had absolutely no respect for the Ukrainians.

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Rather than a military failure it has been much more of an intelligence failure. How was Putin so certain of a quick Ukrainian defeat? Does Russia not have a large network of spies in Ukraine? (This should already exist just because of the events of the past 8 years) For the Russians these concerns are not even the greatest. Losing maskirovka shows that Russia has moles deep within its security apparatus and perhaps in Putin’s inner circle (the invasion plans were only known by a small group).

Coalescence said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510648066403143683

Well we finally got a official explanation from the other side about what happened in Bucha. I don't know if the explanation is realistic, so I leave it up to you guys what think of the situation. At this point, I'm sick of being fooled around by propaganda.

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A twitter thread on the points the Russian side made on debunking the Bucha massacre.

Russia is escalating the discussion to the UN security council:

Seems like they are determined to debunk the narrative of Bucha massacre. If they succeed then this will become a massive propaganda boost for their domestic audience on the narrative that Ukraine committing false flag and warcrimes, and ruin subsequent chances for convincing the Russian population that their own military might be committing war crimes. if they fail, it will be a massive self-own lol

Weaasel said:

What you describe shows the incredible extent of hubris of the Russians. JUST. INCREDIBLE.

With regards to believing that the Ukrainians would capitulate as soon as the Russians showed up at suburbs of Kiev, I wonder if that was truly Putin's initial belief or he was convinced by others that it would be so, and also I wonder the extent of deliberations that took place with regards to that plan and who were the dissenting voices with regards to it.

The whole operation on the western side of the Dnieper River was undermanned, under-resourced, under-supplied, under-protected, over-rushed, and over ambitious. Even without the benefit of hindsight it boggles the mind as to how the Russians could have drank that cool aid. It shows the extent to which they had absolutely no respect for the Ukrainians.

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I always believed that the Ukrainians and the Russians were comparable as warriors on a man-to-man basis.
Moreover, the Ukrainians would be more motivated to fight in defending their homeland than the Russians would be in invading it.

Until recently, the apparent overwhelming majority of writers here were expecting an easy (or at least an inevitable) Russian victory,
which would result in the Russian conquest of most of Ukraine. Please think twice before casting the first stone at Russian hubris.

[ VIDEO ] This is what the roads of Berlin look like today. Drivers organized a rally of more than 5,000 cars in support of the Russian Federation. Flags of Russia, the USSR and the Airborne Forces flutter on cars.

“There is no end to them,” comments a local resident.


[ Photo ] Y‘all understand why they used „Bucha“ for this? „Butchery“….

[ Photo ] According to the National Police of Ukraine, in Bucha there is a purge from "saboteurs" and those whom they consider accomplices of the Russian Federation.
Does anyone else have doubts about where the executed with white armbands on the streets and basements came from, whom they are trying to pass off as victims of Russia?

Also from LEVI:

• Hungarian Prime Minister Orban announces election victory
• Aleksandar Vucic announced his victory in the presidential elections in Serbia

[ Photo ]
West MSM has gone crazy today...West unfortunately is going berserk...Since they mention ISIS, the West never bombed oil refineries that were under ISIS control....Also Obama once said "Syrian opposition is a legitimate representative of the people" but West MSM never showed their crimes unfortunately

West MSM when they were on the way to bring "freedom and democracy" vs intervention in Ukraine





Source:

In the picture, the flights of the NATO WTA for the transfer of weapons. More and more weapons will go into Ukraine



What's the WTA in "NATO WTA", couldn't find it ??


The hysteria of Polish Prime Minister for No-Fly-Zone:





[ Video ] The Russian army destroyed the oil depot in #Odessa, which supplies the southern grouping of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine

@mangopress



[ Album of Photos ] From Russian MOD:

Fake:
The Russian military withdrew from Bucha, having previously left civilian casualties.

Reality:
Stories about Bucha appeared in several foreign media outlets at once, which looks like a planned media campaign. Taking into account that the troops left the city on March 30, where was the footage for four days? Their absence only confirms the fake.

The video of the bodies is confusing: here at the 12th second the "corpse" on the right is moving his arm. At 30th second in the rear view mirror the "corpse" sits down. The bodies in the video seem to have been deliberately laid out to create a more dramatic picture. This is easily seen if you play the video at 0.25 of normal speed.

After Russian troops withdrew from Bucha, the AFU shelled the city. This may have also caused civilian casualties.

Mikhail Podolyak uses such staged footage as a pretext to request weapons from Western countries.

Aegis21 said:

Rather than a military failure it has been much more of an intelligence failure. How was Putin so certain of a quick Ukrainian defeat? Does Russia not have a large network of spies in Ukraine? (This should already exist just because of the events of the past 8 years) For the Russians these concerns are not even the greatest. Losing maskirovka shows that Russia has moles deep within its security apparatus and perhaps in Putin’s inner circle (the invasion plans were only known by a small group).

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I have to push back on this. One should not go to war with the assumption that the enemy will not resist. One goes to war assuming that they will resist and accordingly one prepares and plans that way. What if all that intelligence turns out to be wrong, what does one do?

Russia lost a large number of personnel and much equipment west of the Dnieper River because it advanced too quickly, advanced well ahead of necessary supplies and logistics, undertook very little of probing of the enemy's strengths, and the advancing units did not undertaken proper and comprehensive measures to protect their rear and flanks. Regardless of the intelligence that one has, these are all SOP in advancing through hostile territory that one has not secured.

All these loses and the humiliation of a withdrawal of the kind that had happened could have been significantly avoided if Russia had undertaken such military related SOP. In fact they are not even SOP. They are mandatory operating procedures and mandatory operational preparations.

Lethe said:

You are probably right. Nonetheless I do think the point is worth making: the outcome that China most wishes to avoid here is the collapse of the present Russian regime. Out of the chaos of regime change, China could potentially lose a formidable and useful ally and, in the worst-case scenario, find itself facing a formidable and troublesome foe.

This goes to the discussion about potential Chinese assistance to Russia. Ukraine is unimportant. A Russian victory, Russian defeat, grinding insurgency, stalemate, all of these things are more or less European problems. The threat is not military and does not call for a military response, or military aid. Russia's strategic goals in Ukraine are ultimately Russia's, not China's, and must be correlated with Russian resources and commitments (the failure of the government in Kyiv to similarly shape its policies according to the real-world distributions of power is precisely what has led them to the present catastrophe!). The risks to the present regime in Russia are the political implications of crippling western sanctions (in the months and years ahead) coupled with the political implications of military losses and failures.

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I want to come back to this post from three weeks ago, to reassess in light of battlefield developments. This war has gone so badly for Russia to date, and its future prospects are bleak enough that I believe alarm bells should be quietly ringing in Beijing as to the stability of the present regime in Moscow. At this point it appears that Russia will emerge from this conflict much weaker than she entered it, having undone most of her achievements over the past fifteen years in terms of emerging as a significant and useful counterweight to American hegemony. This is unfortunate for Beijing, but there is little to be done about it. What is more alarming is the prospect of regime collapse in Russia, and the potential emergence of a western puppet regime that would complete the encirclement of China. Even if the likelihood of this remains low in absolute terms, it is much more conceivable now than it was even only a few weeks ago when the battlefield picture was less clear.

At this point I believe that Beijing should be quietly exploring any possibilities that exist to provide Moscow with a face-saving exit from the present quagmire. There are other potential benefits for Beijing in being seen to play a useful and productive role in ending this conflict, namely dampening the rise in anti-China sentiment in both Europe and the USA, but that would not be the primary impetus for diplomatic intervention.

yongpengsuen said:

Wrong. When it comes to fighting for land and women, invaders have just as much motivation as defenders. War is human nature. More specifically, war is the nature of men.

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"When it comes to fighting for land and women, invaders have just as much motivation as defenders."

Men have traditionally regarded both land and women as objects of conquest or the spoils of war.
Many men would be ready to fight to the death to protect their beloved women from being raped.
Few men would be willing to risk their lives seriously just to enjoy raping women whom they desired.

"War is the nature of men."

More testosterone may tend to make a person more aggressive. But that aggression does not need to find an outlet in war.

Lethe said:

I want to come back to this post from three weeks ago, to reassess in light of battlefield developments. This war has gone so badly for Russia to date, and its future prospects are bleak enough that I believe alarm bells should be quietly ringing in Beijing as to the stability of the present regime in Moscow. At this point it appears that Russia will emerge from this conflict much weaker than she entered it, having undone most of her achievements over the past fifteen years in terms of emerging as a significant and useful counterweight to American hegemony. This is unfortunate for Beijing, but there is little to be done about it. What is more alarming is the prospect of regime collapse in Russia, and the potential emergence of a western puppet regime that would complete the encirclement of China. Even if the likelihood of this remains low in absolute terms, it is much more conceivable now than it was even only a few weeks ago when the battlefield picture was less clear.

At this point I believe that Beijing should be quietly exploring options to provide the Russian regime with a face-saving exit from the present quagmire. There are other potential benefits for Beijing in being seen to play a useful and productive role in ending this conflict, namely dampening the rise in anti-China sentiment in both Europe and the USA, but that would not be the primary impetus for diplomatic intervention.

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it has done so well that Arab will still invest in Russia and they still want Russia in OPEC+. so i am not sure from where you get this information that it gone bad except for one small front and that was organized retreat to favorable condition as Belarus is too far away from factories that acutally make the things that run the show.