Ukrainian War Developments

Weaasel · Apr 4, 2022

Lapin said:
I always believed that the Ukrainians and the Russians were comparable as warriors on a man-to-man basis.
Moreover, the Ukrainians would be more motivated to fight in defending their homeland than the Russians would be in invading it.

Until recently, the apparent overwhelming majority of writers here were expecting an easy (or at least an inevitable) Russian victory,
which would result in the Russian conquest of most of Ukraine. Please think twice before casting the first stone at Russian hubris.

It is in the North, and especially west of the Dnieper River that Russia has performed poorly and that is because the plan was poor. It insisted on over rushed execution.

Many or most of those who thought of a quick Russian victory are probably not well versed in the Chechen Wars or they forgot about the Chechen Wars, which are highly applicable to Ukraine, as they are the most recent extensive land wars that the Russians have fought. The Northern Operation by the Russians, especially the northwestern one is in many ways akin to the First Battle of Grozny and the First Chechen War, in which the Russians expected a swift victory and the Russians entered in Grozny with armoured columns unprotected by infantry and air support, but were then decimated as a consequence. Even though Russia did rally and win that battle of Grozny, it came at a huge cost and eventually Russia withdrew from Chechnya.

In the second Chechen War, the Russians came with more than twice as many military units and it took them more than 4 months to capture Grozny. The Russian ground forces advance was slow and deliberate, employing protective measures, fanning out infantry against ambushes, and never rushing combat units far ahead of supplies. It took more than 2 months after the start of the war for the Russians to actually storm Grozny. The humiliation of the first Chechen War had made the Russians much more respectful of the Chechens and as such they were cautious. Russia did eventually win that war.

I believe that Russia will ultimately achieve its objective of expelling Ukrainian Forces from the Donbass Region and it will retain the landbrige that it had formed from the Donbass to Crimea and it will be able to defend those locations from Ukrainian encounters, but the debacle of the Kiev offensive would have been avoided had the Russians applied the same operational and tactical methodologies of the 2nd Chechen War in their approach towards Kiev. Obviously, they never committed the number of personnel to surround or even take Kiev, but that would also mean that they would have negated the hubris of the speed rush decapitation strike on Kiev, and wouldn't have advanced as far as they did, probably stopping at Invankiv. It would mean much fewer casualty and equipment losses, but still enough of an approach to be deemed a feint capable of threatening Kiev with a speed rush at any time.

Weaasel · Apr 4, 2022

Lethe said:
I want to come back to this post from three weeks ago, to reassess in light of battlefield developments. This war has gone so badly for Russia to date, and its future prospects are bleak enough that I believe alarm bells should be quietly ringing in Beijing as to the stability of the present regime in Moscow. At this point it appears that Russia will emerge from this conflict much weaker than she entered it, having undone most of her achievements over the past fifteen years in terms of emerging as a significant and useful counterweight to American hegemony. This is unfortunate for Beijing, but there is little to be done about it. What is more alarming is the prospect of regime collapse in Russia, and the potential emergence of a western puppet regime that would complete the encirclement of China. Even if the likelihood of this remains low in absolute terms, it is much more conceivable now than it was even only a few weeks ago when the battlefield picture was less clear.

At this point I believe that Beijing should be quietly exploring any possibilities that exist to provide Moscow with a face-saving exit from the present quagmire. There are other potential benefits for Beijing in being seen to play a useful and productive role in ending this conflict, namely dampening the rise in anti-China sentiment in both Europe and the USA, but that would not be the primary impetus for diplomatic intervention.

Why the great contrast in fortunes for Russia in the North of Ukraine on the one hand, compared to the South and the East on the other?

MortyandRick · Apr 4, 2022

Lethe said:
I want to come back to this post from three weeks ago, to reassess in light of battlefield developments. This war has gone so badly for Russia to date, and its future prospects are bleak enough that I believe alarm bells should be quietly ringing in Beijing as to the stability of the present regime in Moscow. At this point it appears that Russia will emerge from this conflict much weaker than she entered it, having undone most of her achievements over the past fifteen years in terms of emerging as a significant and useful counterweight to American hegemony. This is unfortunate for Beijing, but there is little to be done about it. What is more alarming is the prospect of regime collapse in Russia, and the potential emergence of a western puppet regime that would complete the encirclement of China. Even if the likelihood of this remains low in absolute terms, it is much more conceivable now than it was even only a few weeks ago when the battlefield picture was less clear.

At this point I believe that Beijing should be quietly exploring any possibilities that exist to provide Moscow with a face-saving exit from the present quagmire. There are other potential benefits for Beijing in being seen to play a useful and productive role in ending this conflict, namely dampening the rise in anti-China sentiment in both Europe and the USA, but that would not be the primary impetus for diplomatic intervention.

This is a concern of mine as well. Hence why I really hope russia pulls out some sort of victory from this and meets their main objectives. So that the current government and its establishments that serve as a barrier against the west will persist. I also don’t want that Ukrainian presidential advisor who correctly predicted a war with Russia and who is gun-ho on joining NATO to be right about wining against Russia in a war. He was very confident in saying Ukraine will win but he assumed NATO no fly zone. Which never happened

Weaasel · Apr 4, 2022

windsclouds2030 said:
[ Album ]
⚡️ Here's more evidence. Bodies in Bucha with white bandages - an identification mark of the pro Russians. The Armed Forces of Ukraine fired at people without considering whether they had weapons or not. The main thing is that they are wearing white bandages, which means that this is an enemy. international journalists, open your eyes. It was not Russian troops who crushed the civilians of Bucha. It was the Nazi regime that you have been supporting

View attachment 86483

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⚡️An American journalist said that the Ukrainian authorities want to push the US and NATO to war with Russia

According to journalist Michael Tracy, using propaganda materials about the killings in Bucha, Kyiv wants to attract Washington and the countries of the alliance to participate in the hostilities.

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[Forwarded from Zvezdanews]
[VIDEO] ❗️ Footage of the combat use of the Su-35 during a special operation in Ukraine

The crews of the Su-35 and Su-30SM fighters carry out the tasks of delivering air strikes on the military infrastructure of the Ukrainian nationalists. The arsenal with which the Su-35 goes on a combat mission includes air-to-ground missiles for air defense systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as air-to-air missiles for enemy aircraft. The latter did not have to be used by military pilots.

A 3m25s clip in Russian from Russian language channel: Colonelcassad 20220404

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Give it a rest, man. The whole Northern Front in Ukraine was a poor plan predicated on the assumption that the Ukrainians would sue for peace the moment that the Russians appeared at the door step of Kiev and accordingly the Russians did not make the necessary defensive, counter defensive, and logistical preparations. It was rushed...

Lapin · Apr 4, 2022

MortyandRick said:
This is a concern of mine as well. Hence why I really hope russia pulls out some sort of victory from this and meets their main objectives. So that the current government and its establishments that serve as a barrier against the west will persist. I also don’t want that Ukrainian presidential advisor who correctly predicted a war with Russia and who is gun-ho on joining NATO to be right about wining against Russia in a war. He was very confident in saying Ukraine will win but he assumed NATO no fly zone. Which never happened

"No country has ever benefited from a protracted war."
--Sun Tzu

China's security does not chiefly depend upon how much more Russia can conquer and occupy in Ukraine.
China's security may depend to a considerable extent upon Russia having a stable government that's not a lackey of the USA.
Russia can attain that condition through cutting its losses, disengaging from its foolish 'war of choice' in Ukraine.
The catch is that Putin may believe that he's risking his grip on power unless he can claim a face-saving victory of sorts.

Weaasel · Apr 4, 2022

MortyandRick said:
This is a concern of mine as well. Hence why I really hope russia pulls out some sort of victory from this and meets their main objectives. So that the current government and its establishments that serve as a barrier against the west will persist. I also don’t want that Ukrainian presidential advisor who correctly predicted a war with Russia and who is gun-ho on joining NATO to be right about wining against Russia in a war. He was very confident in saying Ukraine will win but he assumed NATO no fly zone. Which never happened

Russia will very likely meet its military objectives in the south and east. The terrain is different.

In the South and much of Donetsk it is mostly flat, agricultural terrain, with very little woodland in which the Ukrainians have very little protective cover for ambushes, and this is a big reason why they were able to take over the south that quickly, because the Ukrainians feared Russian aerial bombardments would decimate any large formations of Ukrainian troops in the field.

Unlike in the North, the Russians know full well that the Ukrainian Army in the Donbass is not going to surrender without a major fight. They cannot intimidate them into capitulating to their demands just by showing up in large numbers, and accordingly the Russians are utilizing a much more patient and cautious approach in their combat tactics and manoeuvres. Given that they have the advantage of greater fire power and air superiority (not control), it is likely that they utilize that advantage much more ruthlessly than they did in the North and that they did so far, especially given the failure of the Northern Operation. The supply lines to Russia via Belgorod in Kharkiv and to and through friendly territory held by the Donbass Rebels are also much shorter than those in the thrust to Kiev. Kiev was more than 100 km away from the Belarussian border

Lastly, given the debacle of the North, Russia knows that the stakes are so high that it cannot afford to fail. Russia will likely bring all its firepower short of utilizing nuclear weapons to bear against the Ukrainian Forces in Donetsk.

Weaasel · Apr 4, 2022

Lapin said:
"No country has ever benefited from a protracted war."
--Sun Tzu

China's security does not chiefly depend upon how much more Russia can conquer and occupy in Ukraine.
China's security may depend to a considerable extent upon Russia having a stable government that's not a lackey of the USA.
Russia can attain that condition through cutting its losses, disengaging from its foolish 'war of choice' in Ukraine.
The catch is that Putin may believe that he's risking his grip on power unless he can claim a face-saving victory of sorts.

Russia will go all out in the Donbasd Region, seeking to obtain a victory to prove that their debacle in the North was due to their underestimation of the Ukrainians and hence not having put the necessary resources into that front. That is still a an indictment on them for having poorly planned based on that assumption.

Soldier30 · Apr 4, 2022

Footage of the combat departure of Ka-52 attack helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces was published by the Ministry of Defense. The combat mission was to find and destroy the camouflaged positions of the Ukrainian army. The pilots successfully completed the task by using guided and unguided S-8 missiles from low altitudes.

After the transfer of a group of Russian troops from Kiev to Donbass to complete a special operation to liberate these territories, Ukrainian troops entered the Antonov International Airport in the village of Gostomel. One of the eyewitnesses took a close-up of the wreckage of the largest aircraft in the world An-225 "Mriya". Ukraine destroyed the world's largest AN-225 Mriya transport aircraft with its own hands. It happened because of the shelling of Antonov airport by Ukrainian troops.

supersnoop · Apr 4, 2022

Coalescence said:
A twitter thread on the points the Russian side made on debunking the Bucha massacre.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510760127615406084

Russia is escalating the discussion to the UN security council:

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Seems like they are determined to debunk the narrative of Bucha massacre. If they succeed then this will become a massive propaganda boost for their domestic audience on the narrative that Ukraine committing false flag and warcrimes, and ruin subsequent chances for convincing the Russian population that their own military might be committing war crimes. if they fail, it will be a massive self-own lol

Playing some devil’s advocate here…

This Bucha story doesn’t really seem logical. As we know, both sides have been pretty economical with the truth…

1. As mentioned, Internet and mobile system is still up, if such a mass murder happened, no doubt there would be some kind of posting (not necessarily video because of fear obviously).

Aside: Huawei provided most of the 4G network in Ukraine, working pretty well under fire it seems…

2. Seems really fishy that soldiers would leave tied up executed people to be found like that? If they did commit such crimes it would make more sense to try to burn the bodies.

3. If they wanted to be so cruel, why not just call in an air strike, or artillery strike from the beginning? Doesn’t really fit the pattern.

4. International media has gone through, these are not actors, but doesn’t mean they cannot “dress up” bodies. These are journalists, not forensics experts.

Only interested in the truth here, not trying to support the Russian narrative.

BlackWindMnt · Apr 4, 2022

pmc said:
it has done so well that Arab will still invest in Russia and they still want Russia in OPEC+. so i am not sure from where you get this information that it gone bad except for one small front and that was organized retreat to favorable condition as Belarus is too far away from factories that acutally make the things that run the show.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508514531621978114
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I think it's a good way to determine Russias success by seeing how its allies and partners are reacting.
If their intelligence say Russia is losing the war they would not back up Russia they would react more
as the US vassal kingdoms. Russians partners and allies don't seem to come over panicky yet,
compared to say Ukrainian allies.

supersnoop said:
Playing some devil’s advocate here…

This Bucha story doesn’t really seem logical. As we know, both sides have been pretty economical with the truth…

1. As mentioned, Internet and mobile system is still up, if such a mass murder happened, no doubt there would be some kind of posting (not necessarily video because of fear obviously).

Aside: Huawei provided most of the 4G network in Ukraine, working pretty well under fire it seems…

2. Seems really fishy that soldiers would leave tied up executed people to be found like that? If they did commit such crimes it would make more sense to try to burn the bodies.

3. If they wanted to be so cruel, why not just call in an air strike, or artillery strike from the beginning? Doesn’t really fit the pattern.

4. International media has gone through, these are not actors, but doesn’t mean they cannot “dress up” bodies. These are journalists, not forensics experts.

Only interested in the truth here, not trying to support the Russian narrative.

Like you said internet is still available in Ukraine i'm sure the russians can recreate an accurate timeline of events from uploaded footage.
Haven't we seen a Ukrainian reporter find burned up bodies at the kneecapping location?

Ukrainian War Developments

Weaasel

Senior Member

Weaasel

Senior Member

MortyandRick

Senior Member

Weaasel

Senior Member

Lapin

Junior Member

Weaasel

Senior Member

Weaasel

Senior Member

Soldier30

Senior Member

supersnoop

Major

BlackWindMnt

Captain