Ukrainian War Developments

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james smith esq

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Sanctions seem to be strong this time (if he fully invades) so I am not sure how high his popularity will be if he fully invades Ukraine.

Question time:
Anyone knowns the policies supported by the communist party in Russia? Are they similar with the CPC ?
And, this is where I believe unpredictability comes into our analyses. Although I expect “the west” to pussyfoot on the sanctions, should they not, and, in fact, impose harsh sanctions, how will these affect politico/economic stability in Russia and Putin’s rationality?

This is the whole reason for my, newly acquired, survivalists’ food, water, and fire-starting stock; ‘cause, in my book, Putin’s rationality is only skin deep, just like the rest of us!
 
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james smith esq

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China has a stable foreign policy apparatus/political system. Party secretaries come and go but foreign policy remains stable.

In Russia, though, it is different which is why people here believe that as long as Putin is at helm things will be ok wrt China. However, when he steps down, there will be great uncertainty/instability
Yeah, but Xi cleaned out Tigers AND Flies!
 

semiconprof

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Exactly. China has no interest in Siberia. China is not even interested in conquering any of the resource-rich Central Asian countries, let alone any core Russian territory. This is a Tom Clancy wet dream fantasy. The same Tom Clancy who wrote about a Soviet SSBN defecting to the US, or a modern-day Japanese backstab war on the US.

The ones who truly desired Siberia is the West. They ultimately desired a Russia that is both colonized and broken up. Again this is them projecting themselves onto China. Its like a house robber assuming that everyone in the neighbourhood has the same desire to rob the biggest house there.
Remember the role the west played in the fall of Byzantium Empire. The west sees Russia in a similar light. And they hope China will assume the role of Ottoman. I'm afraid the history will neither repeat nor rhyme this time around.
 

james smith esq

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They've had a number of different western platforms delivered to them in the past 3 years. Must be a logistical nightmare, and I wonder how well they've been trained in using them.

For them to work soldiers need to stand and fight. The Ukrainian army failed to do that in the last conflict, I doubt this one will be any different.
As a former anti-tank “gunner”, actually missile-man, I don’t see logistics as being much of a problem as most ATGM launch-tube/missiles are disposable and snapping them into their sight assemblies (the only non-disposable component), and firing, are very simple. From my training experience, they’re probably only being trained to use the sights at near max firing distance (the opposite of my practice in training, to the utmost irritation of my commanders), so the complexities of sighting-in won’t come into play.
 
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