Ukrainian War Developments

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Weaasel

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Another day goes without Russian using its air superiority to wipe out Ukraine's unprotected forward positions. How many Russians need to die before Putin ends this war?

I'm starting to think this is a situation like the Yom Kippur where Israel was afraid to wipe out Egypt's trapped third army because of American/Soviet retaliation.
By this time Russians should know where all the Ukrainian strong formations within the Donbass are and they should undertake strategic for a week or so many of them to greatly soften them up...
 

memfisa

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I wonder how long it would have taken the competent armies or NATO and China to capture Ukraine ceteris paribus .Two weeks ?
Is there an example in recent modern history of the Chinese military demonstrating competency vs a peer level adversary? I'm not really well versed with Chinese military history, not anything like i am with NATO and Russian.
 

Weaasel

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I think some people have been play way too much video games to think fighter jets are the best tools to use to intercept helicopters.

During exercises, fastjets consistently struggle to score kills against attack helicopters. There was also at least one notable instance where an Apache managed to score a ‘kill’ against an F15 during such exercises.

The key to survival and success in modern warfare is intel.

If you know where enemy AWACS, SAMs and CAP are, you can plan your route and manoeuvre to avoid them.

In this war, NATO AWACS and EW assets play a massively enhanced role that they would not be able to even if NATO was directly engaged. Because without direct hostility between NATO and Russia, NATO intel and C&C assets can get much closer to the frontlines than they would ever dare to in direct combat against the Russians.

With NATO assets giving them a live feed on Russian assets movements throughout the mission, it’s possible to breach any realistic defence.

The key for the attack helicopters would be to stay clear of SAMs and other air defences. If/when Russian AWACS and/or CAP got too close, they could hover or even outright land to avoid detection and lift off against after the danger has passed.
What about ordinary AA gun defences in towns and cities and soldiers carrying MANPADS? They'd be likely able to take care of a few helicopters before they even reach their targets...
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think some people have been play way too much video games to think fighter jets are the best tools to use to intercept helicopters.

During exercises, fastjets consistently struggle to score kills against attack helicopters. There was also at least one notable instance where an Apache managed to score a ‘kill’ against an F15 during such exercises.

The key to survival and success in modern warfare is intel.

If you know where enemy AWACS, SAMs and CAP are, you can plan your route and manoeuvre to avoid them.

In this war, NATO AWACS and EW assets play a massively enhanced role that they would not be able to even if NATO was directly engaged. Because without direct hostility between NATO and Russia, NATO intel and C&C assets can get much closer to the frontlines than they would ever dare to in direct combat against the Russians.

With NATO assets giving them a live feed on Russian assets movements throughout the mission, it’s possible to breach any realistic defence.

The key for the attack helicopters would be to stay clear of SAMs and other air defences. If/when Russian AWACS and/or CAP got too close, they could hover or even outright land to avoid detection and lift off against after the danger has passed.
Belgorod obviously had absolutely no stations with AAs and persons with MANPADs... The Russians did not act about the need for such in towns and cities of oblasts bordering Ukraine. Not surprising given the extent of their carelessness...

I do not know if it is just me... Or is it common for militaries around the world to assume first that an operation will be a cakewalk, and then if it doesn't turn out to be so they make adjustments on the fly instead of having prepared with caution and respect for the enemy, regardless of whether he turns out to be very easy...
 

Michaelsinodef

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Is there an example in recent modern history of the Chinese military demonstrating competency vs a peer level adversary? I'm not really well versed with Chinese military history, not anything like i am with NATO and Russian.
Nope (have to go back to Korean war, and uh China wasn't near peer with US and its allies).

There's not much in regards to sino-Vietnam war either (good sources that is), not to mention it was after some chaotic times (cultural revolution) and China nowadays is not similar to back then.

PS. This whole thing is also off-topic, if some people really want to try and do hypothetical idea of say NATO or China in Russia's place, make another thread about it.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
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I think some people have been play way too much video games to think fighter jets are the best tools to use to intercept helicopters.

During exercises, fastjets consistently struggle to score kills against attack helicopters. There was also at least one notable instance where an Apache managed to score a ‘kill’ against an F15 during such exercises.

The key to survival and success in modern warfare is intel.

If you know where enemy AWACS, SAMs and CAP are, you can plan your route and manoeuvre to avoid them.

In this war, NATO AWACS and EW assets play a massively enhanced role that they would not be able to even if NATO was directly engaged. Because without direct hostility between NATO and Russia, NATO intel and C&C assets can get much closer to the frontlines than they would ever dare to in direct combat against the Russians.

With NATO assets giving them a live feed on Russian assets movements throughout the mission, it’s possible to breach any realistic defence.

The key for the attack helicopters would be to stay clear of SAMs and other air defences. If/when Russian AWACS and/or CAP got too close, they could hover or even outright land to avoid detection and lift off against after the danger has passed.

The exercises you refer to -- J-CATCH -- was done in the late 1970s. Those helicopter versus fighter jet exercises did show that helicopters could hold up surprisingly well if fighter jets chose to get down to low altitude and maneuver at low speeds.
However, as the exercises progressed, fighter jets that operated at higher altitudes and speeds, using missiles, and especially using BVR, were able to get the better of helicopters while the helicopters themselves simply lacked the weapons and kinematic properties to compete with fighters.

In the modern era, with much more capable radars and weapons -- even 1990s era mechanically scanned arrays, and late model SARH BVRAAMs, let alone ARH BVRAAMs, or ImIR guided SRAAMs -- the question of helicopters versus fighter jets is a forgone conclusion.



You are correct in stating this particular raid's success was ultimately the result of ISR -- but apart from NATO providing Ukraine some level of ISR (disposition of Russian ground based air defenses for example, to provide them with a safer route of ingress and egress), let's also not give the VKS too much credence here.

They simply have not been doing the sort of capable regular, round-the-clock AEW&C and CAP missions that they everyone expected them to.
I mean, in hindsight this shouldn't be much of a surprise given the VKS barely have a dozen modern AEW&C airframes to rub together.... but the lack of numbers and the lack of seriousness of Russian deployments of aircraft in this entire war speaks to either a degree of lack of capability, or a degree of operational arrogance, or both.


Because if Russia had a A-50U flying over head and a CAP of one or two flights of Su-30SMs, those Hinds should not have been able to get near the border at all.
The most likely explanation is that such capabilities simply were not overhead during that time, likely due to insufficient numbers for regular 24/7 on station operations, and probably due to Russian planner's beliefs that such a raid would simply not be possible to begin with (carelessness/arrogance). No real time NATO ISR would even be necessary, not to mention real time communication between NATO ISR assets and the Ukrainian helicopters for that level of granular tactical control would be nigh impossible.
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
The exercises you refer to -- J-CATCH -- was done in the late 1970s. Those helicopter versus fighter jet exercises did show that helicopters could hold up surprisingly well if fighter jets chose to get down to low altitude and maneuver at low speeds.
However, as the exercises progressed, fighter jets that operated at higher altitudes and speeds, using missiles, and especially using BVR, were able to get the better of helicopters while the helicopters themselves simply lacked the weapons and kinematic properties to compete with fighters.

In the modern era, with much more capable radars and weapons -- even 1990s era mechanically scanned arrays, and late model SARH BVRAAMs, let alone ARH BVRAAMs, or ImIR guided SRAAMs -- the question of helicopters versus fighter jets is a forgone conclusion.



You are correct in stating this particular raid's success was ultimately the result of ISR -- but apart from NATO providing Ukraine some level of ISR (disposition of Russian ground based air defenses for example, to provide them with a safer route of ingress and egress), let's also not give the VKS too much credence here.

They simply have not been doing the sort of capable regular, round-the-clock AEW&C and CAP missions that they everyone expected them to.
I mean, in hindsight this shouldn't be much of a surprise given the VKS barely have a dozen modern AEW&C airframes to rub together.... but the lack of numbers and the lack of seriousness of Russian deployments of aircraft in this entire war speaks to either a degree of lack of capability, or a degree of operational arrogance, or both.


Because if Russia had a A-50U flying over head and a CAP of one or two flights of Su-30SMs, those Hinds should not have been able to get near the border at all.
The most likely explanation is that such capabilities simply were not overhead during that time, likely due to insufficient numbers for regular 24/7 on station operations, and probably due to Russian planner's beliefs that such a raid would simply not be possible to begin with (carelessness/arrogance). No real time NATO ISR would even be necessary, not to mention real time communication between NATO ISR assets and the Ukrainian helicopters for that level of granular tactical control would be nigh impossible.
I believe that the Russians doubted the capability or the willingness of the Ukrainians to even risk doing that. As you say it is arrogance and not taking the necessary precautionary measures. Even ordinary ground based conventional AAs and infantry armed RPGs and MANPADS at ready would have taken out a couple of helicopters so going so deep into enemy territory...
 

Strangelove

Colonel
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Consequences...a word muriKKKa likes to use a lot these days. Actually the current protests in India may be one of them, fanned by certain alphabet groups, just like in Syria, Thailand, HK, Kazakhstan, Belarus...

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US warns India not to help Russia undermine dollar​

Washington’s point man on anti-Russia sanctions warned India against deeper cooperation with Moscow.

A top US national security official has called on India to scale back its economic and military ties with Russia, warning of “consequences” for any nation that helps Moscow avoid the recent wave of Western sanctions.

Speaking to reporters after meeting with Indian officials on Thursday, Washington’s deputy national security adviser for international economics, Daleep Singh, urged New Delhi not to boost Russian energy imports, and to avoid any moves that might “undermine” the US
dollar.


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NATO should have been dissolved in 1991 – China​

The US-led bloc is a product of the Cold War and should have gone along with it, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said

NATO should have been dissolved in 1991 – China

FILE PHOTO. Zhao Lijian attends a news conference. ©VCG via Getty Images

China believes NATO should have been dissolved after the USSR, which it was created to contain, no longer existed, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said. Instead, it expanded and cornered Russia, triggering bloodshed in Ukraine, Zhao said.
“As a product of the Cold War, NATO should have become history when the Soviet Union disintegrated,” he said during a daily press conference on Friday, when asked about remarks on NATO’s role as a US geopolitical tool made by his Russian counterpart, Maria Zakharova.

Zhao said that NATO expanded eastwards in Europe for decades, in violation of promises made to the Soviet leadership. This pushed Russia “into a corner step by step,” so ultimately, NATO was “the initiator and biggest promoter of the Ukraine crisis” on behalf of the US, he stated, adding that the organization should reflect on what its contribution to European security is.

Moscow cited the threat posed by NATO’s creeping expansion into Ukraine as a key reason why it attacked the country in late February. Beijing agreed with the justification, even as it criticized the use of military force as the method of resolving the situation
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China has repeatedly accused Western nations of escalating tensions with Russia, saying their refusal to address Moscow’s legitimate security concerns was the cause of the crisis. It refused to join in with the sanctions on Russia, calling them illegal and incapable of resolving problems.

The US and its allies accused China of being on the “wrong side of history” in Ukraine, threatening Beijing with punishment should it support the Russian military campaign.

Moscow attacked the neighboring state following Ukraine’s failure to implement the terms of the Minsk agreements signed in 2014, and Russia’s eventual recognition of the Donbass republics in Donetsk and Lugansk. The German and French brokered Minsk Protocol was designed to regularize the status of the regions within the Ukrainian state.

Russia has now demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join the US-led NATO military bloc. Kiev insists the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked and has denied claims it was planning to retake the two republics by force.
 
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