Ukrainian War Developments

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Abominable

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Overbom said:
"If you're wondering how Yesterday went for Russian troops invading Ukraine...
Here's a map of the 40 (!) towns and settlements claimed recaptured by Ukrainian forces yesterday. Along 8 different axes of advance."
View attachment 86340
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509738284448382981
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Looks like he has given up Chernobyl, it's being reported by RT. It's hard to tell what Putin's plan is here. The worse case scenario is he's made a deal with America to just take the Donbass. If he thinks he can just take the Donbass and try to spin it in a win, he's wrong. I'm sure everyone in the Kremlin will be opposed to that, all of his military generals will be and most of the Russian people. Even his own Chechen leader Khadirov is calling him out. Ukraine is destroyed but the damage done to Russia's military reputation will be worse.

The only win in this war for him will be the complete conquest of Ukraine.
 
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Abominable

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Overbom said:
Georgia Supapowe
"⚡️Georgia to implement economic sanctions against Russia.

Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili told CNN that Georgia will join international financial sanctions against Russia.

Georgia had so far refused to sanction Russia in response to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine."
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509740552820076567
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Countries are sensing weakness.
 
plawolf

plawolf

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Abominable said:
Looks like he has given up Chernobyl, it's being reported by RT. It's hard to tell what Putin's plan is here. The worse case scenario is he's made a deal with America to just take the Donbass. If he thinks he can just take the Donbass and try to spin it in a win, he's wrong. I'm sure everyone in the Kremlin will be opposed to that, all of his military generals will be and most of the Russian people. Even his own Chechen leader Khadirov is calling him out. Ukraine is destroyed but the damage done to Russia's military reputation will be worse.

The only win in this war for him will be the complete conquest of Ukraine.
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There are reports of Russian soldiers suffering from acute radiation poisoning symptoms from digging trenches in Chernobyl, which I can well believe.

If that’s the case, pulling troops out of there makes a heap of sense. If Ukraine is stupid enough to rush men to fill that void, they will suffer terribly when shelling churns up far more buried radioactive contamination.
 
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sheogorath

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What I do find amusing is that anglos seem to be refusing to learn anything about this conflict vis-a-vis their attempts at starting a war against China and how peer-state wars can play out for the more powerful side on paper.

Yes, Russia maybe got hit by the Ukrainians behind the lines(regardless if it was luck, bad russian planning, etc) and instead of going "lololololol" maybe they should realize what will happen to them given China's capabilities.
 
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Weaasel

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Abominable said:
Looks like he has given up Chernobyl, it's being reported by RT. It's hard to tell what Putin's plan is here. The worse case scenario is he's made a deal with America to just take the Donbass. If he thinks he can just take the Donbass and try to spin it in a win, he's wrong. I'm sure everyone in the Kremlin will be opposed to that, all of his military generals will be and most of the Russian people. Even his own Chechen leader Khadirov is calling him out. Ukraine is destroyed but the damage done to Russia's military reputation will be worse.

The only win in this war for him will be the complete conquest of Ukraine.
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Abominable, you keep on uttering this thoroughly absolutist and even ridiculous view when that isn't at all realistic and when much can be gained even without the absolute conquest of Ukraine.

The damage done to Russia's military reputation is due to those who thought that Ukraine wouldn't put up a fight and as such they did not approach with the necessary large amount of caution and deliberateness that they did. Otherwise, they wouldn't have rushed on Kiev so quickly and suffered such heavy casualties in the North.

Do you listen to yourself and think of what would be necessary for the absolute conquest of Ukraine?
 
Mohsin77

Mohsin77

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Weaasel said:
The Ukrainians are denying the attack on Belgorod, there are those claiming that it is a false flag. Russia suggests it might suspend peace talks.
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Maybe they just realized it was a very stupid move strategically and are trying to backtrack. Yes, it would hurt logistics on the Russian side temporarily, but oil is one thing Russia isn't lacking. They're on an operational pause already so it's not a big deal. The only thing this attack accomplished (aside from embarrassment for Russia) is to damage the negotiations, which ultimately Ukraine needs more than Russia.
 
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Abominable

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plawolf said:
There are reports of Russian soldiers suffering from acute radiation poisoning symptoms from digging trenches in Chernobyl, which I can well believe.

If that’s the case, pulling troops out of there makes a heap of sense. If Ukraine is stupid enough to rush men to fill that void, they will suffer terribly when shelling churns up far more buried radioactive contamination.
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That's impossible, and another example of Ukrainian disinformation. The amount of radiation there is very little now, you need a massive dose of radiation to get acute radiation sickness. The only way you would be exposed to the doses for acute radiation sickness is if you went right next to where the reactor was. People go on tours there, people work in the region. It's quite safe now.

There may be some long term consequences to being exposed to disturbed soil there, but the acute radiation sickness story is bullshit.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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Mohsin77 said:
You're assuming AWACS can easily detect gunships. They can't.

The most infamous example of this is the 1994 friendly-fire incident. USAF F-15s splashed their own Blackhawks over Iraq, when AWACS couldn't detect them. The F-15 pilots picked them up on their own radar but couldn't identify the bogeys. So they twice asked AWACS if they were friendly. AWACS controllers even knew there were supposed to be Blackhawks in the area, but couldn't detect them, so the pilots shot them down.

So the cause of this failure isn't that Russia lacked enough AWACS coverage here.
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AWACS technology has improved a lot since that time. If the latest KJ-500 can narrow beam F35s from over 100 km out and cannot spot Mi-24s at much shorter range, I would be shocked.

I also would not just advocate AWACS, Russians here need generally more ISR assets. Something like WZ-7 over the top would help Russia immensely.
 
Mohsin77

Mohsin77

Senior Member
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tphuang said:
AWACS technology has improved a lot since that time. If the latest KJ-500 can narrow beam F35s from over 100 km out and cannot spot Mi-24s at much shorter range, I would be shocked.
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The problem is actually optimization. AWACS is optimized to detect fast moving contacts. And it's kind of a mutually exclusive situation. If you optimize for one, you're bad at the other. It's very hard to optimize for both, and high speed targets are a much higher priority.
 
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