Ukrainian War Developments

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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Are people seriously suggesting Mi-24s can't be detected by a combination of air patrols, ground based radar and AWACS in a time of war? The Americans saw gaps in Russian air defence and got the Ukrainians to launch this attack. There's only one reason for this, Russian incompetence.
Wouldn't say incompetence.

The USA continously monitoring the Ukrainan airspace, and doing the command/control part.

Means if they spot a gap anywhere ,due to malfunction, mistake or anything then they attack.


The USA made way more mistake during the serbian war, but Serbia hasn't got the means to punish. Russia has, example the downed helicopters next to Mariupol. But even in that case they KNOW where are the SAM radars , and MANPADSs downed them, not a SAM battery.

Means they have good quality inteligence, from protected sensors, and extreme level of processing capability, considering the limited battlespace compared to the means of the NATO.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Does Russia only have 15-20% of it's armed forces in Ukraine? I don't believe "budget" is excuse, it's actually more costly to drag out the conflict longer in attrition than ending it quickly with a larger force.
I think its because he has limited number of contracted soldiers and he doesn't want to send conscript there.

After all, he called this a "special military operation", not a war. What would happen if mothers saw their young sons coming back to coffins after taking part in this so-called "special operation"...

So, even the justification of the war from the start was flawed in such a way that it has tied Putin's hands on how many resources he can throw there.
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Exactly. Russia is going nuclear against NATO anyways, so there is zero excuse to not send troop reinforcements into Russia. Does Russia only have 15-20% of it's armed forces in Ukraine? I don't believe "budget" is excuse, it's actually more costly to drag out the conflict longer in attrition than ending it quickly with a larger force. Putin somewhat wants to win this in a 'civilized' manner to reduce civilian causalities, with minimal Russian forces, in a quick timetable. This is an hubristic misjudgement. It needs more troops/equipments and concentrate it against one area, rinse and repeat until negotiated settlement.


Exactly!! Mr. 'Sun Tzu's descendant' is epically wrong about everything, hence my quip. US obviously has a foothold everywhere in Old World! Smh...

I personally think given the vast economic costs endure, IF total conquest not feasible, then at very minimum, Russia must atleast convert conquered territories in south and east into 'Novorussiya confederation' or Kherson People's Republic with a pro-Kremlin puppet and have them invite Russian peacekeepers. Otherwise, this campaign is a waste of time, lives, and money.
What you are saying is much much less than the absolute conquest of Ukraine.
 

FADH1791

Junior Member
Registered Member
You would think the Ukrainians would jump on the helicopter attack on Belogrod but instead they are saying it’s not true but a false flag. Could have been a local commander that did the attack. Anyway Russia needs to up the ante right now. Clearly there has been so much incompetence it’s crazy. But at least they learn adapt and reorient. They’ll have to take the entire former Novorussiya area to turn West Ukraine into a broke Banderistan failed state and let the west deal with it. Ukraine attacked your homeland with this helicopter attack. Now it’s time to wage total war against Ukraine.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Wouldn't say incompetence.

The USA continously monitoring the Ukrainan airspace, and doing the command/control part.

Means if they spot a gap anywhere ,due to malfunction, mistake or anything then they attack.


The USA made way more mistake during the serbian war, but Serbia hasn't got the means to punish. Russia has, example the downed helicopters next to Mariupol. But even in that case they KNOW where are the SAM radars , and MANPADSs downed them, not a SAM battery.

Means they have good quality inteligence, from protected sensors, and extreme level of processing capability, considering the limited battlespace compared to the means of the NATO.
You're using an example of American incompetence to justify Russian incompetence? That isn't the Chinese way of thinking, and I don't think even the Americans think like that.
Why hasn't a Tu-22M overflown Ukraine?
There is no military reason not to. Even Tu-95s should have made an appearance by now. My impression is Putin either doesn't want to kill too many Ukrainian soldiers. Mass bombardment of Ukrainian lines would quickly cause a rout and this war would have been over in days not weeks. But Putin wants to be seen as a "good guy".

The trouble is, there's no meaningful difference between not having the military ability to accomplish something and lacking the political will. If you have an advanced 5th gen fighter but are too afraid to deploy it, then you may as well not have it.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
For modern AEW&C systems in service or developed since the new milennium, the ability to track low flying, slow moving targets (including helicopters) is very much now a standard feature and normal capability. But even those modern systems are at the mercy of limitations imposed by terrain.

The Blackhawk shootdown did have the E-3 capable of maintaining radar tracks on the Blackhawks for long parts of the entire episode, the periods where they were unable to consistently track the Blackhawks was due to terrain/topography blocking the line of sight of the radar.


In this Ukrainian raid, the effectiveness of AWACS (if Russia had any airborne at the time) would have been largely dependent on the terrain -- but I do not think it is anywhere near similar to northern Iraq where the 1994 blackhawk shootdown happened.
If I am not mistaken, much of north central and north western Ukraine, and adjacent areas of Belarus and Russia is a large plain with very little topological relief except some very shallow river valleys. It would have to be an extremely low flying aircraft to cover any long flight path behind terrain.

Also, I believe helicopters produce a distinctive flickering radar return due to rotor rotation that allows radar signal processing to pick them out relatively easily.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
You're using an example of American incompetence to justify Russian incompetence? That isn't the Chinese way of thinking, and I don't think even the Americans think like that.

There is no military reason not to. Even Tu-95s should have made an appearance by now. My impression is Putin either doesn't want to kill too many Ukrainian soldiers. Mass bombardment of Ukrainian lines would quickly cause a rout and this war would have been over in days not weeks. But Putin wants to be seen as a "good guy".

The trouble is, there's no meaningful difference between not having the military ability to accomplish something and lacking the political will. If you have an advanced 5th gen fighter but are too afraid to deploy it, then you may as well not have it.

I suspect we might see bombers start to make an appearance soon.

The issue is less one of Putin being a bleeding heart and being precious about killing Ukrainian soldiers (come on, not even the most pro-Russian posters will believe that), but rather there are no ‘clean’ targets to use such bombers and carpet bombing tactics against since Ukrainian troops almost always dig in around towns and cities rather than try to fight clean battles out in open fields.

Unless the Russians are truly comically inept, their current pull backs should leave towns with zero civilians left to get underfoot. So when the Ukrainians move into occupy them, that’s when carpet bombing becomes actually viable and militarily useful to do.
 
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