Ukrainian War Developments

Some shots of the attack itself.



Then the consequences.




That's going to be ugly to put out.

Overbom said:

Wikipedia says they only have 15 AWACs. Take into account maintenance issues and that they have to cover the entire country and to guard against US/NATO shenanigans, and you soon realise that AWACs are a very limited resource for Russia.

All the bad past procurement decisions are now coming back to bite them

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I think the Russians need to make a decision, if they're deterring NATO with nukes anyway then what's the point of keeping their forces in reserve. Not commenting on this particular incidence but the overall picture

Weaasel said:

Well more than just some mishaps... Especially in the North... I do not know whether Russia has finally readjusted to the realities of those mishaps at the onset of the war - especially the lack of caution and assuming the the Ukrainians were an absolute push over and thinking they'd actually just surrender if the Russians showed up.

Russia had better get much nastier, while retaining caution in the East. They are still fighting a limited style war there against the largest and well armed concentration of the enemy's forces instead of bringing the full effect of their combined arms conventional fire power to bear.

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Clearly the first phase of the ''special operation'' was to cause panic in the Ukranian leadership with the hope of flight of some of the authorities. This clearly did not occur. Still the Russkie forces were able to behead most of the UkAF and much of its IADS, leaving them with a handful of scattered but yet effective elements, as this night raid has shown.

But the fact remains Russia cannot compromise all its effectives into the Ukrainian cauldron, having its Northern flank highly vulnerable with the presence of NATO forces in the Baltics and a fragile ally with Belarus.

Therefore, it sure looks like the Russian force will have to do with limited handpicked ressources in order to deal with the situation, which privileges a Syria style low cost, slow but steady pace rather than pulling its full weight into the Ukrainian trap.

Time will tell I guess.

lapain said:

Clearly the first phase of the ''special operation'' was to cause panic in the Ukranian leadership with the hope of flight of some of the authorities. This clearly did not occur. Still the Russkie forces were able to behead most of the UkAF and much of its IADS, leaving them with a handful of scattered but yet effective elements, as this night raid has shown.

But the fact remains Russia cannot compromise all its effectives in the Ukrainian cauldron, having its Northern flank highly vulnerable with the presence of NATO forces in the Baltics and a fragile ally with Belarus.

Therefore, it sure looks like the Russian force will have to do with limited handpicked ressources in order to deal with the situation, which privileges a Syria style low cost, slow but steady pace rather than pulling its full weight into Ukrainian trap.

Time will tell I guess.

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An addition of extra 50-80k troops to the Donbass front would have finished the job there already. Instead, Russia is playing games with limited troops deployed.

Only a strategic genius such as Putin would decide to unnecessarily prolong a war. He treats war like its a game and not like it is a matter of life or death (that's how all wars should be treated).

If Sun Tzu was alive today he would be banging his head to the wall watching this stupidity.

anzha said:

Helicopters can bob and weave between gaps in AD systems. The US opened the Gulf War with a raid by Apaches after all.

What makes this surprising for me is the VKS didn't have any AWACS up or at least fighters on patrol in the area. The UAF doesn't have a lot of aircraft left, but a raid like this is a strategic value for just the morale boost and embarrassment to Russia if nothing else.

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Do you see how low they are flying? And it was night time... AWACS and fixed winged aircraft would likely not be able to detect them and intercept them successfully respectively...

Overbom said:

An addition of extra 50-80k troops to the Donbass front would have finished the job there already. Instead, Russia is playing games with limited troops deployed.

Only a strategic genius such as Putin would decide to unnecessarily prolong a war. He treats war like its a game and not like it is a matter of life or death (that's how all wars should be treated).

If Sun Tzu was alive today he would be banging his head to the wall watching this stupidity.

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Alternative theory is that he is trying to find pro-Russian population in Ukraine in every region.
just look at the picture to give idea.

yongpengsuen said:

I'm a direct descendant of Sun Tzu. This is a game for Russians. It lets them figure out what works, what don't work, what is needed, what is not needed. It teaches Russian military how to fight a modern war. It gives them experience.

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Which makes me think there's other motives for prolonging this war. Russia could have ended this already if they went all in, was it because of incompetence or lack of resources? who knows. But I think, this fight in Ukraine is just one battle, in the bigger war being waged against the West and EU in the field of economics, politics and geopolitics.

Weaasel said:

Do you see how low they are flying? And it was night time... AWACS and fixed winged aircraft would likely not be able to detect them and intercept them successfully respectively...

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AEW could tho. supposedly unless there are none on air at the moment of occurrence. and in theory can guide interceptions.