Ukrainian War Developments

Weaasel said:

For generations to come, Russia will now always operate on caution and respecting an opponent from the getgo...

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Not generations. Maybe half a generation at most.

Recall Russia went from superiority complex to inferiority complex to superiority complex to inferiority complex to superiority complex to inferiority complex to superiority complex in just the 40 years between 1905 and 1945.

Russian self regard is as fickle as fickle can be, and bounce up and down between extravagant presumption of superiority to fatalist sense of inadequacy faster than any yo-yo.

lucretius said:

A war of attrition, ultimately comes down to who has the greatest will to win, who is willing to sacrifice the most. Do you feel that is Ukraine or Russia?

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It is not just that... Russia is right next door... It also has a huge lot to lose...

lucretius said:

A war of attrition, ultimately comes down to who has the greatest will to win, who is willing to sacrifice the most. Do you feel that is Ukraine or Russia?

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The will to fight is important, but far from enough. Think of the fight in Mariupol. Who has more will to fight? I think the Ukrainian side has a stronger will in this case, but in the end, they can prolong but not change their fate. In Ukraine, the Russians are free to bomb the Ukrainian resources like gas and ammo. Ukraine is not able to interrupt the Russian supply lines. Over time, this would take a very heavy toll on the Ukrainian side. Even though Ukraine is a big country, highly motivated and skilled fighters are in short supply. Once they are killed off, the remaining men can be defeated much easier. We probably still have at least a month or two of operation in the Eastern front before these troops are liquidated. If at that time, the Ukrainians will not agree to the Russian terms, Russia will start on another city. We will see how that goes. If I were a gambling man, I would bet that it would be much easier to take another city. Once that happens, the Ukrainians may come around.

Richard Santos said:

Not generations. Maybe half a generation at most.

Recall Russia went from superiority complex to inferiority complex to superiority complex to inferiority complex to superiority complex to inferiority complex to superiority complex in just the 40 years between 1905 and 1945.

Russian self regard moves up and down faster than any yo-yo.

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But retrospectively, it is still incredible how the Russians made such terrible assumptions of the Ukrainians despite actually knowing of the progress of their capabilities during 8 years of the Donbass War...

Russian ranking officers are certainly mostly all veterans of the two Chechen Wars...

It many ways it is like the 1st Chechen War all over in which the Russians assumed that they would take over Grozny without only a few tank Battalions unsupported by artillery and airstrikes, and it only after that total disaster of the first few days of Grozny that the Russians realized the debacle and then hurriedly undertook airstrikes and poured in combined arms units of more armoured fighting vehicles, infantry, artillery, and close air support...

I think Russia's ability to fight is directly tied to Putin's popularity. Russian's wont fight for something they don't believe in.

Both sides still have a healthy supply of fighting age people to draw from with Ukraine having already mobilised, Russia may have to make that call soon.

Ukraine does need modern air defences, or it will soon begin to suffer higher attrition rates as it's soviet era stuff begins to run out.

Weaasel said:

But retrospectively, it is still incredible how the Russians made such terrible assumptions of the Ukrainians despite actually knowing of the progress of their capabilities during 8 years of the Donbass War...

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You saw the DNR/LNR independence video where Putin held a security council meeting where all his security advisors unanimously said yes, some clearly nervous and uncomfortable, but couldn't oppose.

When you have a superiority complex, look down on your opponent, and surround yourself with 'Yes man', then you get this type of result.

Apparently, Putin has distanced himself with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, because he felt he wasn't getting fed the right info.

So faulty unreliable intelligence, surround yourself with 'Yes man' is a partial contribution to current situation. It is salvageable, but they must be decisive and quickly reconcentration of forces against Donbass.

lucretius said:

Both sides still have a healthy supply of fighting age people to draw from with Ukraine having already mobilised

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You cannot grab a guy off the street, check that he has all ten fingers, hand him an AK47 and expect him to fight in the same way a seasoned fighter that is trained and battle hardened. If, after seeing a couple of his buddies getting one in the head, he started running away, most will follow. Even if he stay and fight, can he even aim straight?

lucretius said:

I think Russia's ability to fight is directly tied to Putin's popularity. Russian's wont fight for something they don't believe in.

Both sides still have a healthy supply of fighting age people to draw from with Ukraine having already mobilised, Russia may have to make that call soon.

Ukraine does need modern air defences, or it will soon begin to suffer higher attrition rates as it's soviet era stuff begins to run out.

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Russia carried over 50,000 sorties in first 5 years in Syria and not including Choppers and rotated nearly all its forces. there is not healthy supply of men to one side when you look at it.
Russia taking it slow as they first waited for Indian students and there other people that need to move out.

Weaasel said:

Russians might not be utilizing drones and airstrikes to cover their withdrawal well, at least in a number of different locations.

When one undertakes an organized withdrawal, one withdraws from the front first to a series of fortified locations at the rear of the front and one does so successively until the withdrawal is complete, and if one's withdrawal is not one based on a ceasefire, one has to fan out infantry and close air support beforehand to check for ambushes, as well as undertake air and artillery strikes against known enemy positions to prevent their advance against oneself.

Perhaps this is what the Russians have generally been doing... It is definitely not perfect, though... And if the Ukrainians were really inflicting truly massive losses on Russian convoys withdrawing, then one would see drone footage of miles of such destroyed vehicles...

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They left behind stuff and Ukrainians are destroying it more or less. That destruction give time for the withdrawal . Could be mostly empty and damaged vehicules. But if you spot an entrenched tank, you still don't take a chance and you destroy it. It make good pictures but it's just junk from the past month of combat.

Helius said:

To make it sound like there's no counter to it at whatever the level you may want to clarity for yourself would be incredibly dismissive and inaccurate, when you realise the whole Western vs Soviet/Russian air defence doctrines revolve around cost-effectiveness vs saturation attacks!

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It's dismissive because the concept is ridiculous, and no sound doctrine has ever revolved around it.

You mentioned layered defense in the Naval realm, but US Naval doctrine follows the principle I outlined: It's the Strike Group's (airwing + destroyers + subs) responsibility to neutralize the launch platforms, while keeping the CVN as far away as possible. This is because the group's onboard SAM+Phalanx layers can always be saturated. They only exist as a last resort. It's simply incorrect to say that the doctrine "revolves" around them.

The layered defense is also not "cost-effective" either. I could give you 10 billion USD to layer your carrier group with SAMs and Phalanx systems, while I get 10 billion worth of coastal AShM batteries that I'll ripple if you come anywhere close to my territory. You have no realistic chance to defeat this saturation attack with a 1:1 cost ratio that "revolves" around SAM/Phalanx layers. Your only shot is to neutralize the launchers. There is no other option. And that's what the doctrine actually revolves around.

And we're not even talking about 21st century AI enabled threats here, which have made defending even harder.