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Fire power can to a certain extent negate that by being much less discriminatory... In conventional war or semi conventional warefare it is necessary to target the enemy's supply and telecommunications infrastructure...
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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What, you seriously think the Ukrainians may turn this around and win?
Virtually all of the city has been taken, it's down to a few city blocks and an industrial complex. As there's very few human shields left it'll just be a case of which one the Ukrainians decide they want to be buried under. I'm expecting one final surrender offer but I doubt they'll take it.
What equipment do you think Azov have that will help them compared to fallujah insurgents? They have plate armour (some), maybe a few tanks left, but not much else. Once they're kettled in close enough a few barrages of TOS-1 will give them the good news.
The Russians clearly miscalculated the Ukrainian resistance to their initial invasion. If you look at their initial invasion thrusts, it was all along the border, and they tried to advance wherever they could. There was no concentration of forces or thinking of holding defensible lines. However, their situation is not totally lost. They are admitting their mistakes (at least internally) and withdrawing forces from hopeless fronts (such as Kiev) that are not central to the war at the moment. The Chernihiv and Sumy areas are also not that important. The main areas of importance are in the South and East.
On the Myoklaiv/Kherson front, the Dnieper gives both sides a natural defensive barrier. The Russians most natural course of action is to hold a perimeter around Kherson and the Dnieper but do not waste men and material trying to take Myoklaiv or advance to the West of the Dnieper. Their hopes of taking Odessa in the short run are nonexistent, but it is not that important as long as the port is blockaded.
The Kharkov front remains important (since losing badly there would cut off the Russian advance at Izyum, and by extension the Russian hopes of cutting off the Donbass grouping of the UA) and if the Russians start withdrawing from there, you know they've given up. I find this highly unlikely as Putin's domestic position would suffer a potentially fatal blow if he lost this war, after everything that has happened.
The Russians need more troops but they can still get that without conscription by increasing military spending and hiring more contract and volunteer soldiers. Yes, they will not be as well trained initially, but the Ukrainians don't have an unlimited supply of highly trained troops either. Russian industry would need to ramp up to produce more military equipment and they would have to find ways to do so without the supply of modern microelectronics that rely on the West. This is a major headache for Russia.
IMO for Russia, it's a good thing they are willing to recognize realities that the initial assault didn't work out and bite the bullet. While it's painful because the Kiev front was hard fought, it's better than continuing to spend men and material there with no hope of taking Kiev. I suppose you can say the front served a purpose in distracting the Ukrainians significantly for a month, even if that wasn't the initial purpose. If the Russians do persist and concentrate their firepower in the Donbass and Kharkov areas, they will be in a far better position tactically than they have in the last month. However in the long run their ability to draw up additional reinforcements from Russia itself and produce more weapons will decide the outcome of the war, provided that they have the will to wage it.
On the Myoklaiv/Kherson front, the Dnieper gives both sides a natural defensive barrier. The Russians most natural course of action is to hold a perimeter around Kherson and the Dnieper but do not waste men and material trying to take Myoklaiv or advance to the West of the Dnieper. Their hopes of taking Odessa in the short run are nonexistent, but it is not that important as long as the port is blockaded.
The Kharkov front remains important (since losing badly there would cut off the Russian advance at Izyum, and by extension the Russian hopes of cutting off the Donbass grouping of the UA) and if the Russians start withdrawing from there, you know they've given up. I find this highly unlikely as Putin's domestic position would suffer a potentially fatal blow if he lost this war, after everything that has happened.
The Russians need more troops but they can still get that without conscription by increasing military spending and hiring more contract and volunteer soldiers. Yes, they will not be as well trained initially, but the Ukrainians don't have an unlimited supply of highly trained troops either. Russian industry would need to ramp up to produce more military equipment and they would have to find ways to do so without the supply of modern microelectronics that rely on the West. This is a major headache for Russia.
IMO for Russia, it's a good thing they are willing to recognize realities that the initial assault didn't work out and bite the bullet. While it's painful because the Kiev front was hard fought, it's better than continuing to spend men and material there with no hope of taking Kiev. I suppose you can say the front served a purpose in distracting the Ukrainians significantly for a month, even if that wasn't the initial purpose. If the Russians do persist and concentrate their firepower in the Donbass and Kharkov areas, they will be in a far better position tactically than they have in the last month. However in the long run their ability to draw up additional reinforcements from Russia itself and produce more weapons will decide the outcome of the war, provided that they have the will to wage it.
Never said that. Yes, the Russians have been making progress, but its at a grinding pace from block-by-block fighting. It will be a while before organized resistance ceases.
If they truly ever meant to take Kiev, they were woefully under strength to do so, and they also rushed their advance there too quickly...
It amazes me that few people on this forum actually make references and comparisons to the 2nd War in Chechnya, which is most comparable to this war. Back then, the Russian advance on Grozny was slow and very deliberate and it took over 4 months for the Russians to capture Grozny after the beginning of the War and they deployed 100,000 persons of the Federal Forces to do so.
One of the things that thoroughly amazes me about the Russians is given their experience in the 2nd Chechen War and the caution and respect they showed to the Chechens then, why they did not have the same disposition of assuming that the enemy would be determined to fight. Surely the Russians should have been very well aware of Ukraine's possession of drones and decent MANPADS and ATGMs and prepared and strategized accordingly.
The Russians are now chastened about not operating from the getgo on respecting the enemy and being cautious. I am sure that there are recriminations and fierce finger pointing by those who advocated caution and respect at those who assumed that the Ukrainians would be a walk over...
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Again never said that.
That's not true unless you count vast swathes of the city as "a few city blocks"
Not likely considering how fanatic Azov is.
Sniper rifles, nv goggles, thermal imagery, and all around better equipment. It'll likely allow them to slow down the inevitable takeover.
They are withdrawing from Crenobyl atm. Why to take Chernobyl at first?
In my view, they were spoiled by the successful military interventions in Georgia (2008), Ukraine (2014), and Syria (2015), as well as the 2nd Chechen war itself and probably forgot about how humbled Russia was at that time (1999). And heck, it's not just them, the US expected Kiev to fall within 72 hours. Everyone overestimated them.
Ukraine, on the other hand, was shamed by its lack of resistance in 2014-15 and how it was taken by surprise then, and have felt seven years feeling shame and preparing for this.
Lethe
Captain
Each day that Russia fails to significantly escalate this conflict via national mobilisation is a day closer to Russia's defeat, most likely in the form of narrowing objectives to securing the Donbas and declaring this to be "victory". Russia is trying to fight this war like the US and its allies did their various wars of choice over the past generation, i.e. with little to no impact on the home front. It has not worked and will not work, not when Ukrainians are fighting under conditions of national mobilisation, when they are being resupplied by the west, and when Russia has demonstrated little to no ability to interdict those supplies. If Russia is not willing to mobilise its population for war, and not willing to bring out the nukes, then this is over and the rest is detail.
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