Ukrainian War Developments

Hopefully Scholz will keep NS2 suspended. This is an excellent time for Chinese Industry to grab market share from its German competitors.

Infact this is very good because now Russia will be pressured to sign other gas deals. And then China will get an even bigger gas discount from Russia

German Industry expensive gas + Chinese Industry cheap gas = Blitzkrieg on the world market from China.

All thanks to Scholz and US. I hope that Scholz will be strong enough to withstand German business pressure to open NS2. To make it clearer, an operating NS2 is NOT in China's Industry interest

Overbom said:

Hopefully Scholz will keep NS2 suspended. This is and xcellent time for Chinese Industry to grab market share from its German competitors.

Infact this is very good because bow Russia will be pressured to sign other gas deals. And then China will get an even bigger gas discount from Russia

German Industry expensive gas + Chinese Industry cheap gas = Blitzkrieg on the world market from China.

All thanks to Scholz and US. I hope that Scholz will be strong enough to withstand German business pressure to open NS2. To make it clearer, an operating NS2 is NOT in China's Industry interest

Click to expand...

If Russia takes over all Ukraine then NS2 is irrelevant anyway as the whole point was to bypass Ukraine.

It is quite a smart move by Putin. So far, the sanctions coming from the U.S., the only things that matter, are quite mild. In one stroke, it ends the possibility of Ukraine taking back these two territories without fighting. Ukraine will now have to invade an even better protected area with the possibility of more Russian troops. From the Ukrainian press, they seem to be reconciling this without contemplating war. If Ukraine tries to drop these territories and join NATO, not only will there be internal opposition, the Russians can also have more Eastern Ukrainian territories declare independent and move into those. Let's see what falls out from here.

Overbom said:

Hopefully Scholz will keep NS2 suspended. This is an excellent time for Chinese Industry to grab market share from its German competitors.

Infact this is very good because now Russia will be pressured to sign other gas deals. And then China will get an even bigger gas discount from Russia

German Industry expensive gas + Chinese Industry cheap gas = Blitzkrieg on the world market from China.

All thanks to Scholz and US. I hope that Scholz will be strong enough to withstand German business pressure to open NS2. To make it clearer, an operating NS2 is NOT in China's Industry interest

Click to expand...

Russia already did when Putin and Xi signed the 30-year gas deal at the Olympics, settled in Euros no less, as a pre-empt to a possible NS2 collapse.

Maikeru said:

Exactly this. Anyone on here who thinks China and Russia are bezzie mates at the bar 4 eva needs their 'kin head examined, and also needs to read some history. It suits both countries for now to be friendly - but circumstances will inevitably change in time. By the end of the Cold War the USSR had more divisions deployed against PRC than against NATO.

Click to expand...

Whoever that thinks that Russia and China is gonna be the worse of enemies 4 eva need to have their heads examined. Whoever that thinks that Russia will 'return' to the Christian West needs to enter into a mental institution.

China and Russia had their share of conflicts. But those are nothing in comparison to what the Christian West had inflicted onto Russia. Russians may not be fond of names like Cixi or Mao Zedong. But they certainly despise the names of Napoleon, Kaiser Wilhem II, Adolf Hitler, and all US presidents since FDR.

During the height of the Sino-Soviet split, JFK offered to Khrushchev to launch a joint military strike on China to stop its early nuclear weapons program. Khrushchev refused, even when he understood the implications of a hostile China obtaining nuclear weapons. Khrushchev trusts the West even less than China.

Its the same as today. Russia and China have their own issues. But its nothing compared to what the West had, and is still doing to Russia. The West had broken arms treaties, expanded NATO up to Russia's borders, sanctioned Russia, and turned a once brotherly nation into a sworn enemy. What had China done during all those years to merit Russia distrusting it more than the West?

Despite the immense controversu of Russia annexing Crimea in 2014, China was still there to help Russia. Even when prior to that, Russia was treating India better than China. Now, China is Russia's most trusted partner. There are cross-currency transactions, pipelines built, and even ally-level military collaboration. It'll be immensely difficult for Russia to decouple from China in the future. Even the USA and India failed miserably in that regard. If Russia would choose the Christian West over China anytime. Why then partner with China? Why not just surrender to the Christian West? They are clearly richer and militarily more powerful than China. Russians are no fools, they clearly knew that the West can never be trusted, no matter how white or Christian they are.

Helius said:

Russia already did when Putin and Xi signed the 30-year gas deal at the Olympics, settled in Euros no less, as a pre-empt to a possible NS2 collapse.

Click to expand...

Power of Siberia 2 hasnt been signed yet. This is the big one. Every $1 in discount could be worth hundreds of millions to a billion in savings

Overbom said:

Hopefully Scholz will keep NS2 suspended. This is an excellent time for Chinese Industry to grab market share from its German competitors.

Infact this is very good because now Russia will be pressured to sign other gas deals. And then China will get an even bigger gas discount from Russia

German Industry expensive gas + Chinese Industry cheap gas = Blitzkrieg on the world market from China.

All thanks to Scholz and US. I hope that Scholz will be strong enough to withstand German business pressure to open NS2. To make it clearer, an operating NS2 is NOT in China's Industry interest

Click to expand...

reservior dogs said:

It is quite a smart move by Putin. So far, the sanctions coming from the U.S., the only things that matter, are quite mild. In one stroke, it ends the possibility of Ukraine taking back these two territories without fighting. Ukraine will now have to invade an even better protected area with the possibility of more Russian troops. From the Ukrainian press, they seem to be reconciling this without contemplating war. If Ukraine tries to drop these territories and join NATO, not only will there be internal opposition, the Russians can also have more Eastern Ukrainian territories declare independent and move into those. Let's see what falls out from here.

Click to expand...

I must say I am quite satisfied with how this turned out. As long as the west keeps dissing Putin, they can only keep hurting themselves and inflict token pain on Russia. Germany will hurt herself more than Russia.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Let's examine my head then. Since you're invoking history, why don't we talk about that time America fought a war to expel the English king and England retaliated by burning the White House? Where's that fit in?

Click to expand...

Exactly! US and UK were enemies, and now they are best friends. Things can change. The geopolitical situation is ever changing and is never static. Isn't that his point? One day, Soviet Union and China are best-buddies, another day, they almost to go nuclear war against each other. Who is to say if China got too powerful, Russia feels slighted, and seek a reset with West? There is a non-zero chance, but should be taken seriously.

ZeEa5KPul said:

How long is "for now"? Because I see "for now" lasting as long as the West exists.

Click to expand...

"For now" until China becomes too powerful and US/EU offers a "Reverse Nixon" reset with post-Putin successor. Russia doesn't even need to explicitly counter China, it just needs to flood the 3rd world with 5th gen Checkmates to neutralize China's dominance in the subcontinent or SCS.

There is little ideological, cultural, language underpinning the Russia-China alignment, so if China becomes too powerful, a "Reverse Nixon" can certainly happen. It's a low chance, but certainly China needs to be prepared to prevent that from happening.

ZeEa5KPul said:

How long a time would it take for circumstances to inevitably change?

Click to expand...

Oh the flip side, it's not guaranteed that China will stay powerful forever. If China becomes too weak, who knows, Russia might explore some adventurism against China. They say every 200-300 years, Chinese dynasties collapse or weaken. Even the "Century of Humiliation" is not technically over until Taiwan is reunified.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Finally, how many divisions does Russia have deployed against China today vs. NATO?

Click to expand...

I think the fact that China is reluctant to formalize a treaty alliance with Russia speaks to the past transgressions (Qing-era unequal treaties, Sino-Soviet split) that cannot be simply ignored by saying: "China will never become weak again" or "We are friends forever", because there is no permanent friends, only permanent interests.

I think you just admire Putin's strongman complex, which is fine. I'm personally against a formal treaty alliance with Russia, but 'alignment' is fine. China doesn't want to be sucked into Eastern Europe clusterfck or drag China into any nuclear WW3 by virtue of a treaty alliance.