Ukrainian War Developments

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reservior dogs

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james smith esq said:
Another reason that China would keep relations with Russia on al largely, transactional bases is that Russia’s stability and consistency are bound, inextricably, to Putin’s stability and consistency, whereas China’s is based on the CPC.

And, as I’ve suggested, previously, and much to the chagrin of some, here, when Putin’s gone, who knows what the orientation of the faction that replaces him will be. It could be wholly willing to accept second-class status in the “western” club.
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Even after Putin is gone, there are few constraining factors that makes it impossible for Russia to be a against China.

1. The United States still need Russia as an enemy to unite Europe.
2. Russia is reliant on Chinese energy markets.
3. If Russia make an enemy out of China, can face a two front war which would spell the end of Russia. China, with a strong military and virtually unlimited production capability, can be a much worse enemy than the West ever was.

The most I can see is some realignment,
 
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xypher

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Can some of you explain how "providing economic aid through energy purchases and support in international organizations without committing to military conflicts" is equal to helping the West or trying to be on the West's good side? Last time I heard Russia did not commit to militarily helping China in case of war over Taiwan too.
 
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Abominable

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james smith esq said:
Another reason that China would keep relations with Russia on al largely, transactional bases is that Russia’s stability and consistency are bound, inextricably, to Putin’s stability and consistency, whereas China’s is based on the CPC.

And, as I’ve suggested, previously, and much to the chagrin of some, here, when Putin’s gone, who knows what the orientation of the faction that replaces him will be. It could be wholly willing to accept second-class status in the “western” club.
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The idea of Putin being an anti-western demagogue is largely a western created one. Putin was hand picked by Yeltsin, a very pro western leader. Putin's position changed over years of open anti-Russian policy from NATO, starting from Kosovo and Chechnya. Domestically his policies are western, or at least the eastern European form.

Unlike a lot of people, I don't think there's anything special about him. He inherited a massive nuclear arsenal and military and big oil/gas reserves. That alone guaranteed Russian security for decades.

As for his replacement. The most credible opposition to Putin today is the communist party, I'm sure China will be happy with that. There is the far right of course, but they are largely unorganised outside of criminal gangs and heavily suppressed in Russia.
 
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Atomicfrog

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Overbom said:
Export control sanctions are coming for computers and other electronics

"EXCLUSIVE (Reuters) Biden administration has prepared export controls to hit Russian companies with alleged military ties and deny Russians access to global technology, including electronics and computers"
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496170434290724878
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How he can cut access to global technology ? China produce most of it, lol !
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
reservior dogs said:
Even after Putin is gone, there are few constraining factors that makes it impossible for Russia to be a against China.

1. The United States still need Russia as an enemy to unite Europe.
2. Russia is reliant on Chinese energy markets.
3. If Russia make an enemy out of China, can face a two front war which would spell the end of Russia. China, with a strong military and virtually unlimited production capability, can be a much worse enemy than the West ever was.

The most I can see is some realignment,
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Russia is only going to remain an adversary of the West if it remains strong.

Unfortunately, Russia's greatest weakness and uncertainty right now is who can succeed Putin. Should Russia fall back into the hands of the Oligarchs, we may very well see a re-orientation during our lifetime.
 
james smith esq

james smith esq

Senior Member
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Abominable said:
The idea of Putin being an anti-western demagogue is largely a western created one. Putin was hand picked by Yeltsin, a very pro western leader. Putin's position changed over years of open anti-Russian policy from NATO, starting from Kosovo and Chechnya. Domestically his policies are western, or at least the eastern European form.

Unlike a lot of people, I don't think there's anything special about him. He inherited a massive nuclear arsenal and military and big oil/gas reserves. That alone guaranteed Russian security for decades.

As for his replacement. The most credible opposition to Putin today is the communist party, I'm sure China will be happy with that. There is the far right of course, but they are largely unorganised outside of criminal gangs and heavily suppressed in Russia.
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Actually, Putin tried his best to be a “western” lapdog, as well. It was only his obsession with reanimating the USSR and his growing need to play Super Power leader that has caused this current crisis. All the more reason that gas supplies to Europe were a priority and those to China an afterthought.

I didn’t mean to suggest that Russia might become an enemy to China, post-Putin, only unreliable as an ally.
 
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