Ukrainian War Developments

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Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
Exactly! US and UK were enemies, and now they are best friends. Things can change. The geopolitical situation is ever changing and is never static. Isn't that his point? One day, Soviet Union and China are best-buddies, another day, they almost to go nuclear war against each other. Who is to say if China got too powerful, Russia feels slighted, and seek a reset with West? There is a non-zero chance, but should be taken seriously.

Until China becomes too powerful and US/EU offers a "Reverse Nixon" reset with post-Putin successor. Russia doesn't even need to explicitly counter China, it just needs to flood the 3rd world with 5th gen Checkmates to neutralize China's dominance in the subcontinent or SCS.

There is little ideological, cultural, language underpinning the Russia-China alignment, so if China becomes too powerful, a "Reverse Nixon" can certainly happen. It's a low chance, but certainly China needs to be prepared to prevent that from happening.

Oh the flip side, it's not guaranteed that China will stay powerful forever. If China becomes too weak, who knows, Russia might explore some adventurism against China. They say every 200-300 years, Chinese dynasties collapse or weaken. Even the "Century of Humiliation" is not technically over until Taiwan is reunified.

I think the fact that China is reluctant to formalize a treaty alliance with Russia speaks to the past transgressions (Qing-era unequal treaties, Sino-Soviet split) that cannot be simply ignored by saying: "China will never become weak again" or "We are friends forever", because there is no permanent friends, only permanent interests.

I think you just admire Putin's strongman complex, which is fine. I'm personally against a formal treaty alliance with Russia, but 'alignment' is fine. I don't want China doesn't want to be sucked into Eastern Europe clusterfck or drag China into any nuclear WW3 by virtue of a treaty alliance.
China's best option at this time is to remain neutral and use the coming sanctions to make Russia more economically dependent on China, whilst helping Russia to ensure that US/Euro forces are compelled to remain in Eastern Europe rather than pivoting to APAC.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
China's rise is too sudden for those people to change their minds. This is why I have been saying all along that only after 2030, people (from around the world) would start recognising China as a proper superpower.

From a military perspective, 2030 sounds about right because it takes so long for military R&D and procurement to happen.

From an economic perspective, it'll be somewhat earlier when China's GDP is larger than the USA on an exchange rate basis.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
China's best option at this time is to remain neutral and use the coming sanctions to make Russia more economically dependent on China, whilst helping Russia to ensure that US/Euro forces are compelled to remain in Eastern Europe rather than pivoting to APAC.
Yes, 1000% agree.

If US is too fixated on Russia in Europe, it relieves a ton of pressure on China in Asia-Pacific region.

Also, if Russia is more economically closer to China, it's less susceptible to be courted by Western "Reverse Nixon" strategy. The remaining psychological things like "Russian hypersensitivity on sovereignty and dependency on other states" need to be respected too. It's a bit tricky since Russia does what it is best for Russia, and has an ego to restore Soviet empire (atleast Putin does). I'm not sure if China becomes too powerful, would Russia not seek a 'balance of power' on the opposite side.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Exactly! US and UK were enemies, and now they are best friends. Things can change. The geopolitical situation is ever changing and is never static. Isn't that his point? One day, Soviet Union and China are best-buddies, another day, they almost to go nuclear war against each other. Who is to say if China got too powerful, Russia feels slighted, and seek a reset with West? There is a non-zero chance, but should be taken seriously.

Until China becomes too powerful and US/EU offers a "Reverse Nixon" reset with post-Putin successor. Russia doesn't even need to explicitly counter China, it just needs to flood the 3rd world with 5th gen Checkmates to neutralize China's dominance in the subcontinent or SCS.

There is little ideological, cultural, language underpinning the Russia-China alignment, so if China becomes too powerful, a "Reverse Nixon" can certainly happen. It's a low chance, but certainly China needs to be prepared to prevent that from happening.

Oh the flip side, it's not guaranteed that China will stay powerful forever. If China becomes too weak, who knows, Russia might explore some adventurism against China. They say every 200-300 years, Chinese dynasties collapse or weaken. Even the "Century of Humiliation" is not technically over until Taiwan is reunified.

I think the fact that China is reluctant to formalize a treaty alliance with Russia speaks to the past transgressions (Qing-era unequal treaties, Sino-Soviet split) that cannot be simply ignored by saying: "China will never become weak again" or "We are friends forever", because there is no permanent friends, only permanent interests.

I think you just admire Putin's strongman complex, which is fine. I'm personally against a formal treaty alliance with Russia, but 'alignment' is fine. China doesn't want to be sucked into Eastern Europe clusterfck or drag China into any nuclear WW3 by virtue of a treaty alliance.
So what is your point? China should have no allies? AKA the North Korean model?

Countries with similar cultures don't result in close alliances. If anything the opposite is true, and the small differences are magnified. For example look at Ukraine and Russia, Scotland and England, the Balkans, many of the African conflicts. In fact its hard to find two culturally similar countries that haven't been at war with each other.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
From a military perspective, 2030 sounds about right because it takes so long for military R&D and procurement to happen.

From an economic perspective, it'll be somewhat earlier when China's GDP is larger than the USA on an exchange rate basis.
I think economically, they are about the same size today. Currency Exchange does not measure the true economics. For example, the Chinese can make two type-55 destroyers for every Arleigh Burke class on currency exchange measurements. Does that mean the Arleigh Burke is worth twice the type 55?
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Exactly! US and UK were enemies, and now they are best friends. Things can change. The geopolitical situation is ever changing and is never static. Isn't that his point?
"Best friends" lol
The UK is just a puppet country.

To correct you, the US doesn't have friends, it only has puppets and vassal states which may differ on how much freedom they are allowed to have
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
So what is your point? China should have no allies? AKA the North Korean model?
China-Russia should limit itself to "alignment", not an "alliance" because Russia unpredictable behavior will drag China into nasty situations (e.g., nuclear WW3).

Yes, keep it to "comprehensive strategic partnership" or "unlimited friendship+++" but never a formal treaty alliance. There is little direct benefit but massive drawbacks/risks.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
So what is your point? China should have no allies? AKA the North Korean model?
Yes, because Qing and Sino-Soviet split. No permanent friends, only permanent interests, don'tcha know.
Countries with similar cultures don't result in close alliances. If anything the opposite is true, and the small differences are magnified.
There's a great example of this you missed: the Arab countries. The same language, the same culture, the same religion, once unified under one state, etc. The model says they should be a bloc with a lot of weight, right? But in reality they're a bunch of asps biting each other and Iran is picking them apart. They're the psychopathic principle "there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests" in action.

Hey, if there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests - how come the Anglos seem to be permanent friends?
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
Another reason that China would keep relations with Russia on al largely, transactional bases is that Russia’s stability and consistency are bound, inextricably, to Putin’s stability and consistency, whereas China’s is based on the CPC.

And, as I’ve suggested, previously, and much to the chagrin of some, here, when Putin’s gone, who knows what the orientation of the faction that replaces him will be. It could be wholly willing to accept second-class status in the “western” club.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
China-Russia should limit itself to "alignment", not an "alliance" because Russia unpredictable behavior will drag China into nasty situations (e.g., nuclear WW3).

Yes, keep it to "unlimited friendship+++" or "comprehensive strategic partnership", but never a formal treaty alliance.
1. Russia's behaviour is not unpredictable. It is the direct result of years of NATO hostility to Russia including the support of terrorism, ethnic cleansing and economic war.
2. If Russia fails, China is next. No one in the west will care whether China did the right thing with Russia or not. Trying to be in the west's good books in the hope they don't nuke you is pathetic.
 
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