Ukrainian War Developments

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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My guess is the initial move on Kiev had two or three objectives. One being to stop units in Kiev from reinforcing their army in the Donbass. Another objective was that by threatening Kiev the bulk of Ukrainian army would get out of the fortification near Donbass to reinforce Kiev. This would leave them exposed to air assaults. But they are not moving at all. So the Russians are just disabling their mobility. This means the units in Kiev will have a harder time doing counter attacks with mechanized units. Both in Kiev and in Donbass.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
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I've been thinking over the recent targeting of fuel depots by the Russians and trying to make sense of it. Targeting ammo depots obviously makes a lot of sense and if you could only do X number of air strikes and cruise/ballistic missile attacks a day I would rather drop all of those on ammo depots or command and control or any other high value targets.

High profile examples of the focus on fuel depots:
  • Kinzhal attack against the pumping station of the depot near Nikolaev
  • the attack yesterday against the depot near Lviv
The reason why it didn't make sense at first is because Ukrainian armour are mostly content sitting in their position and not engage in manoeuvre warfare, so they can't be burning through that much fuel. With that in mind I can brainstorm 3 reasons why fuel depots are being hit:
  • maybe all the other low hanging fruits are already gone, so it's fuel depots turn to receive fire, and hits to fuel depots are more visible since they light up the sky
  • this may be an attempt at disrupting Ukrainian truck based supply lines. Receiving NATO aid is one thing, getting the stuff to where they need to be while fuel depots are on fire is another
  • With the rumour of the 2nd stage offensive against the Donbass troop concentration being prepared, hitting fuel depot may be a pre-emptive move to reduce their mobility to prevent/slow any retreat towards Kiev.
Your thoughts?
Cutting off reinforcements possibilities. The east need to fight with only things they have and it's melting like ice in summer.
 
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Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
The Netherlands have a huge amount of farm animals. They have way more pigs than people. And even more chickens.
These are raised in highly intensive operations. All those animals need to be fed. And probably with cheap wheat grain.
That is one of the issues the EU has. They do not grow GMO soy and corn in crop rotation like the US. So animal feed is way more expensive.
GMO is banned in the EU for the most part.

But then again I have heard a lot of people claim the US is suffering from soil erosion. If that is true, the West probably got into deep shit with their sanctions shenenigans on Russia.
There will eventually be a transition towards controlled environment and indoor agriculture done within buildings. This is happening because of the actual transition away from the fossil fuel dominated economy around the world that is happening slowly but gradually and the content of renewables and nuclear energy as power generating sources is increasing in share and total output. Renewables and nuclear power are either much much more abundant or much much more efficient than fossil fuels, while they produce much less in pollutive effluents and GHGs. Today, renewables such as solar and wind are competitive with fossil fuel and the efficiency of batteries with regards to energy storage has increased tremendously and China has been at the forefront of making that happen, in large or majority part because of China's environmental concerns and also the desire to maximize energy security within China. China has an experimental Thorium molten salt reactor and has also developed 4th generation uranium fuelled nuclear reactors.

There will come a time when renewables and nuclear power infrastructure and the means of their transmission become so predominant that they will bring energy and hence all sorts of production prices down greatly, and that's because of their combined great great abundance and their efficiency. That will make controlled environment and indoor agriculture as cheap, while much less risk free than ambient environment agriculture. It will result in the replacement of much outdoor arable land with indoor arable land, enabling reversion of much outdoor arable land to wilderness.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
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Not sure if russian propaganda. One of the KA-52 assaulting on 1st day said 18 manpads fired at him. I do believe some stingers do not work anymore.
Well if they started shooting when it was at extreme range... they could shot 200 at them and they will just fell short. Nato gifted these weapons like candy without proper training. It's like shooting an AK blindly and thinking that you would hit something...
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Super Moderator
VIP Professional
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Still loads of people here talking about Russia wanting to buy Chinese weapons.
Has there to date been a single non western source stating this as fact?

What would the Russians actually want? They have after- all, the worlds second largest weapons manufacturing industry after the US.
Its a bit like the stories about them not having enough fuel, when they are one of the worlds greatest oil and gas producers !!??
If it is all about the logistics then this is another story, this is then about trucks (and probably field engineers). Trucks are duel use items and so selling those to Russia should not be pose any significant problems.
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Well if they started shooting when it was at extreme range... they could shot 200 at them and they will just fell short. Nato gifted these weapons like candy without proper training. It's like shooting an AK blindly and thinking that you would hit something...
MANPADS and ATGMS are treasure weapons that are very costly to be wasted...
 

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
Still loads of people here talking about Russia wanting to buy Chinese weapons.
Has there to date been a single non western source stating this as fact?

What would the Russians actually want? They have after- all, the worlds second largest weapons manufacturing industry after the US.
Its a bit like the stories about them not having enough fuel, when they are one of the worlds greatest oil and gas producers !!??
If it is all about the logistics then this is another story, this is then about trucks (and probably field engineers). Trucks are duel use items and so selling those to Russia should not be pose any significant problems.

So far nothing but Western fantasy. Maybe Biden wants some brownie points "Look! I prevented China from supplying weapons to Russia! Me so strong!"
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I've been thinking over the recent targeting of fuel depots by the Russians and trying to make sense of it. Targeting ammo depots obviously makes a lot of sense and if you could only do X number of air strikes and cruise/ballistic missile attacks a day I would rather drop all of those on ammo depots or command and control or any other high value targets.

High profile examples of the focus on fuel depots:
  • Kinzhal attack against the pumping station of the depot near Nikolaev
  • the attack yesterday against the depot near Lviv
The reason why it didn't make sense at first is because Ukrainian armour are mostly content sitting in their position and not engage in manoeuvre warfare, so they can't be burning through that much fuel. With that in mind I can brainstorm 3 reasons why fuel depots are being hit:
  • maybe all the other low hanging fruits are already gone, so it's fuel depots turn to receive fire, and hits to fuel depots are more visible since they light up the sky
  • this may be an attempt at disrupting Ukrainian truck based supply lines. Receiving NATO aid is one thing, getting the stuff to where they need to be while fuel depots are on fire is another
  • With the rumour of the 2nd stage offensive against the Donbass troop concentration being prepared, hitting fuel depot may be a pre-emptive move to reduce their mobility to prevent/slow any retreat towards Kiev.
Your thoughts?
Fuel depots make far more sense and should be the number one priority. Ukraine has enough soviet era ammo and weaponry doted around the country to fight if they needed. Upgrading to western versions may be nice but not is not necessary. As long as they have fuel, they can fight with whatever they have. It's also low cost in terms of collateral damage, most depots are in low population areas and don't need many people on site, especially at night.

Starving the Ukraine of fuel stops everything. Not only are supplies to the army stopped, you also make it difficult for cities to keep functioning. Pretty soon Ukrainians will be deciding whether to send food to civilians or supplies to the front line.

That's why NATO targeted fuel infrastructure so extensively in Serbia during the Kosovo war. They even went as far as bombing civilian petrol stations. It's much more effective in the Ukraine because it's a much bigger region.
 

longmarch

Junior Member
Registered Member
The state switched priority from military funding to infrastructure construction. They built roads, schools, and hospitals.
At the same time the current available aircraft amounts were deemed suitable. And newer models like Su-34M and Su-57 are still in development and not available for mass production. If anything I think they could have used more Su-34. But they probably thought it would be better to wait for Su-34M to become available and then produce that. Su-57 is considered to be an interim design and they want to wait for Su-57M to be available before mass production.

With current conflict I am not sure if they will not just increase Su-57 order and delay introduction of Su-57M.
In addition to that, Russia changed from food importer to food exporter, lowered its debt and strengthened its economy. The flight of Tu-160m indicates that its industrial capability also improved.
When Russia reduced its dollar reserves to close to zero, you know they were preparing for something, just that it might not have been enough.
Another thing is that, back in 2014, Russia needed to watch out for the Syria situation, they were likely trying to avoid getting into a large scale confrontation with Ukraine or NATO. Putin waited patiently till the Europe refugee crisis, then intervened in Syria without being sanctioned more. To me that's a geopolitical masterpiece. Syria is something Russia can't afford to lose.
 
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