Ukrainian War Developments

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tphuang

tphuang

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Abominable said:
They could have bought them 6 months ago and had Chinese civilian operators. The current situation would be pretty much the perfect scenario for them. 90% of EAD suppressed, no airforce. Lots of high value ground targets. Piloted sorties or artillery is no substiute for that.

Russia seems to be like a grandparent who refuses to use a new smart phone and prefers using their flip phone.
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I just used wl2 as an example. They could have gotten other system too. A few kj500 and y9 ew aircraft would have allowed them to keep 1 kj500 and 1 ew aircraft in the air at all time. That would have made a huge difference in picking up tb2 and assess battlefield damages and breaking up Ukrainian communication. Having a couple of wz7 in the air would have allowed them to capture all the Ukrainian troop movement. Having a few pcl191 would have allowed them to annihlate all the Ukrainian camps on the western part of the country. It's not hard to see how pla would have fought this differently.

Pla is already learning things from this conflict that they could get from Russian help on like heavy attack helicopters. If Russia was a little more humble here, things could have gone a lot differently.
Phead128 said:
Thoughts on this article? Seems extreme if true... ouch.

Putin’s War to Wipe Out 15 Years of Russian Economic Growth​

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That sounds bad to lose 15% in GDP until you consider America lost over 30% in GDP over the great depression. I am sure Biden administration hoped the hit on Russia would be harder than that.
longmarch said:
Russia's economy was in bad shape back then. After 8 years sanction it actually gets much stronger, and they finally are able to update their military hardware again after sorting out the supply chain issues; plus they are able to develop new hardware like hypersonic weapons.
To do what they are doing today at that time would be an even grander gamble. Today they are much more confident, just maybe a bit too confident.
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They were buying 100 aircraft a year between 2014 to 2016. They were down to around 20 a year for the past 2 years. Things did not get better in 8 years. They got worse.

Overbom said:
Same.
"They stole our carrier design"
"Their new stealth bomber is a copy"
"Don't let our soldiers use Chinese crap"
"Chinese weapons are very low quality, our weapons are better"
"Wing Loong/CH/etc are bad quality American copies, our Orion is so much better"
"Their ships are only about quantity, they build them fast, but there are subpar quality with water leaks!"

lol. Kinda hilarious watching them seethe over Chinese weapons. If I knew Russian I would definetely have a go against them for their "superior" air/drone force
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You always hear about Russians looking down on china. It turned out everything people like shilao had been saying about Russia was true. And Russians simply did not have a grasp of how far they had fallen behind in various areas. Whereas based on shilao podcast, pla is pretty aware of the areas that china can still learn from russians. Now that Russian military has eaten a humble pie, maybe they will look for more Chinese help once we have a cease fire.
 
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gelgoog

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tphuang said:
They were buying 100 aircraft a year between 2014 to 2016. They were down to around 20 a year for the past 2 years. Things did not get better in 8 years. They got worse.
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The state switched priority from military funding to infrastructure construction. They built roads, schools, and hospitals.
At the same time the current available aircraft amounts were deemed suitable. And newer models like Su-34M and Su-57 are still in development and not available for mass production. If anything I think they could have used more Su-34. But they probably thought it would be better to wait for Su-34M to become available and then produce that. Su-57 is considered to be an interim design and they want to wait for Su-57M to be available before mass production.

With current conflict I am not sure if they will not just increase Su-57 order and delay introduction of Su-57M.
 
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enroger

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tphuang said:
I just used wl2 as an example. They could have gotten other system too. A few kj500 and y9 ew aircraft would have allowed them to keep 1 kj500 and 1 ew aircraft in the air at all time. That would have made a huge difference in picking up tb2 and assess battlefield damages and breaking up Ukrainian communication. Having a couple of wz7 in the air would have allowed them to capture all the Ukrainian troop movement. Having a few pcl191 would have allowed them to annihlate all the Ukrainian camps on the western part of the country. It's not hard to see how pla would have fought this differently.

Pla is already learning things from this conflict that they could get from Russian help on like heavy attack helicopters. If Russia was a little more humble here, things could have gone a lot differently.

That sounds bad to lose 15% in GDP until you consider America lost over 30% in GDP over the great depression. I am sure Biden administration hoped the hit on Russia would be harder than that.

They were buying 100 aircraft a year between 2014 to 2016. They were down to around 20 a year for the past 2 years. Things did not get better in 8 years. They got worse.


You always hear about Russians looking down on china. It turned out everything people like shilao had been saying about Russia was true. And Russians simply did not have a grasp of how far they had fallen behind in various areas. Whereas based on shilao podcast, pla is pretty aware of the areas that china can still learn from russians. Now that Russian military has eaten a humble pie, maybe they will look for more Chinese help once we have a cease fire.
Click to expand...

Well it is too late to talk about Chinese weapons involvement now, Putin should've bought everything he need before the war. Now it is just too expensive for China to sell them anything.... Another reason why I believe Putin rushed the war without extensive planning
 
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Darkon112

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gelgoog said:
The Russians started conducting most of their airborne assaults at night. Seems the US supplied MANPADS don't have night sights.
Russian helicopters have night vision. So...
That explains lower Russian helicopter losses at this moment.

One major advancement since Afghanistan is that Russian helicopters have night vision sensors. And recent helicopters like Mi-28 have IR signature reduction.
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All Ka-52's also have DIRCM. As well as some Mi-8's.
 
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gelgoog

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Yes. But this is not about DIRCM. The engine shrouds in Mi-28 are specially designed so not a lot of heat is emitted in the exhaust.
Older helicopters did get adaptations in Afghanistan to reduce IR signature. But this is less effective than an airframe designed for that from the ground up. The Mi-28 was designed to be a stealth helicopter with decent resistance to high caliber rounds and explosive fragments.
I still remember when the Mi-28 was first shown in public they hid the design of the engine shrouds in available photos.
 
Temstar

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I've been thinking over the recent targeting of fuel depots by the Russians and trying to make sense of it. Targeting ammo depots obviously makes a lot of sense and if you could only do X number of air strikes and cruise/ballistic missile attacks a day I would rather drop all of those on ammo depots or command and control or any other high value targets.

High profile examples of the focus on fuel depots:
  • Kinzhal attack against the pumping station of the depot near Nikolaev
  • the attack yesterday against the depot near Lviv
The reason why it didn't make sense at first is because Ukrainian armour are mostly content sitting in their position and not engage in manoeuvre warfare, so they can't be burning through that much fuel. With that in mind I can brainstorm 3 reasons why fuel depots are being hit:
  • maybe all the other low hanging fruits are already gone, so it's fuel depots turn to receive fire, and hits to fuel depots are more visible since they light up the sky
  • this may be an attempt at disrupting Ukrainian truck based supply lines. Receiving NATO aid is one thing, getting the stuff to where they need to be while fuel depots are on fire is another
  • With the rumour of the 2nd stage offensive against the Donbass troop concentration being prepared, hitting fuel depot may be a pre-emptive move to reduce their mobility to prevent/slow any retreat towards Kiev.
Your thoughts?
 
A

Atomicfrog

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gelgoog said:
The Russians started conducting most of their airborne assaults at night. Seems the US supplied MANPADS don't have night sights.
Russian helicopters have night vision. So...
That explains lower Russian helicopter losses at this moment.

One major advancement since Afghanistan is that Russian helicopters have night vision sensors. And recent helicopters like Mi-28 have IR signature reduction.
Click to expand...
In any case, manpads need someone to spot the aircraft, prepare the manpads, lock and fire. More or less impossible to have someone ready with the manpad on 24/24hr. The battery would be empty before you are able to find a target and the manpads would become unusable.. So a lot of targets can pass and go unfired on or even undetected. Harder to spot low flying aircraft/ helicopter during the night without good IR goggles.
 
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Weaasel

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Temstar said:
I've been thinking over the recent targeting of fuel depots by the Russians and trying to make sense of it. Targeting ammo depots obviously makes a lot of sense and if you could only do X number of air strikes and cruise/ballistic missile attacks a day I would rather drop all of those on ammo depots or command and control or any other high value targets.

High profile examples of the focus on fuel depots:
  • Kinzhal attack against the pumping station of the depot near Nikolaev
  • the attack yesterday against the depot near Lviv
The reason why it didn't make sense at first is because Ukrainian armour are mostly content sitting in their position and not engage in manoeuvre warfare, so they can't be burning through that much fuel. With that in mind I can brainstorm 3 reasons why fuel depots are being hit:
  • maybe all the other low hanging fruits are already gone, so it's fuel depots turn on receiving fire, and hits to fuel depots are more visible since they light up the sky
  • this may be an attempt at disrupting Ukrainian truck based supply lines. Receiving NATO aid is one thing, getting the stuff to where they need to be while fuel depots are on fire is another
  • With the rumour of the 2nd stage offensive against the Donbass troop concentration being prepared, hitting fuel depot may be a pre-emptive move to reduce their mobility to prevent/slow any retreat towards Kiev.
Your thoughts?
Click to expand...
Targeting of major fuel depots is in important part done as a means of preventing any major sustained counter offensive by the Ukrainians, as they will need to utilize vehicles to undertake any such counter offensive.
 
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enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
Temstar said:
I've been thinking over the recent targeting of fuel depots by the Russians and trying to make sense of it. Targeting ammo depots obviously makes a lot of sense and if you could only do X number of air strikes and cruise/ballistic missile attacks a day I would rather drop all of those on ammo depots or command and control or any other high value targets.

High profile examples of the focus on fuel depots:
  • Kinzhal attack against the pumping station of the depot near Nikolaev
  • the attack yesterday against the depot near Lviv
The reason why it didn't make sense at first is because Ukrainian armour are mostly content sitting in their position and not engage in manoeuvre warfare, so they can't be burning through that much fuel. With that in mind I can brainstorm 3 reasons why fuel depots are being hit:
  • maybe all the other low hanging fruits are already gone, so it's fuel depots turn on receiving fire, and hits to fuel depots are more visible since they light up the sky
  • this may be an attempt at disrupting Ukrainian truck based supply lines. Receiving NATO aid is one thing, getting the stuff to where they need to be while fuel depots are on fire is another
  • With the rumour of the 2nd stage offensive against the Donbass troop concentration being prepared, hitting fuel depot may be a pre-emptive move to reduce their mobility to prevent/slow any retreat towards Kiev.
Your thoughts?
Click to expand...

Definitely choke off Ukr supply line from west to east would be a major target, maybe your other points stands too but this should be top priority. Ukr forces in the east are already slowly running out of supplies
 
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